Sun news October 31: Fiery action around the solar horizon
Sun activity remains moderate after the production of four M (moderate) flares, but the real excitement is the fiery action around the solar periphery. Gorgeous fiery prominences – ropes of solar material and magnetic fields – and jets of plasma have been seen around the solar horizon, mainly from the northwest to the south pole. Stealing the limelight was a slow moving, long-lasting prominence on the south pole that ended in a strong filament eruption. Take a look in the imagery above.
Last 24 hours: Four M (moderate) flares over the past day keep solar activity at moderate. Flaring productivity is perking up, with a total of 16 flares sparked between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today: the four Ms along with 12 C (common) flares. The largest flare of the period was an M7.2, fired at 23:16 UTC on October 30 by active region AR3878 on the northeast solar quadrant. An R1 (minor) radio blackout was registered affecting an area over the Pacific Ocean. The lead flare producer of the past day is again active region AR3878, which is quickly becoming the flare producer of the week. This time it produced nine flares, including all four M flares. Currently, the sun bears 10 numbered active regions on its Earth-facing side. This is the list of the M flares of the past 24 hours:
-M7.2 at 23:16 UTC on October 30 from AR3878. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
-M1.0 at 2:52 UTC on October 31 from AR3878. R1 (minor) radio blackout off the north coast of Australia.
-M1.0 at 3:30 UTC on October 31 from AR3878. R1 (minor) radio blackout off the northwest coast of Australia.
-M1.4 at 9:37 UTC on October 31 from AR3878. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Mozambique.
Yesterday’s newcomer on the northeast, AR3879, is becoming the largest active region on the solar disk, although it still shows a simple, low-potential alpha magnetic configuration. Sunspot regions AR3869, AR3875 and AR3878 are today the highest in magnetic complexity, with beta-gamma-delta regions, suggesting a potential for strong flares. They are all now strong candidates for big M flares and even X flares.
Sun news October 30: Sun-stuff coming. but not today
A coronal mass ejection or CME is coming to us at Earth, and is expected to give us a glancing blow by November 1. The CME stemmed from a filament eruption on the sun’s southwest limb (edge) at around 11 UTC on October 29. In addition, a large coronal hole emerged in the sun’s northeast quadrant, close to the sun’s central meridian (a line drawn through the center of the Earth-facing sun). This hole is now in a geoffective position, so that its fast solar wind should reach us at Earth, also within the next couple of days. With the CME glancing blow and the fast solar wind might we have some interesting auroral activity at Earth around November 1.
Last 24 hours: Solar activity has been moderate over the past day, thanks to an isolated M (moderate) flare. Flaring reduced to a total of only four flares sparked between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today: one Ms plus three C (common) flares. The largest flare of the period was the M1.1 blasted out at 16:33 UTC on October 29 from active region AR3873 in the southeast quadrant. Th flare provoked an R1 (minor) radio blackout that affected an area over Bolivia. The lead flare producer of the past day was again active region AR3878, this time producing two flares. Currently, the sun bears 10 numbered active regions on its Earth-facing side. There is a newcomer on the northeast limb (edge) just east of AR3878. It’s pretty big and is now labeled AR3879. For now, it shows an alpha configuration (suggesting no huge potential for strong flaring) but its foreshortened position makes analysis difficult. Sunspot region AR3872 lost its gamma-delta configuration and is now showing a simpler alpha as well. But AR3869 and AR3878 have kept their levels of high magnetic complexity, beta-gamma-delta (suggesting a potential for strong flares), and AR3876 joined to the beta-gamma-delta club. They are all now strong candidates for big M flares and even X flares. Among the rest of the active regions on the Earth-viewed side of our star, AR3874 kept its beta-gamma configuration, the other show simpler alpha or beta.
Sun news October 29: Three regions show X flare potential
Three active regions on the Earth-facing side of our sun are showing potential for some major flaring. Sunspot regions AR3869, AR3872 and AR3878 all have the highest level of magnetic complexity, beta-gamma-delta, meaning they are strong candidates for big M flares and even X flares. And two of these regions – AR3869 and AR3872 – are currently near the middle of the solar disk, so any sun-stuff they fire out would have a good chance of heading toward Earth. Stay tuned!
Last 24 hours: Two M flares over the past day have kept solar activity at moderate. Between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, the sun produced 13 flares: two Ms plus 11 C-class flares. The largest was an M4.2 at 16:28 UTC on October 28 from AR3878 on the northeast limb (edge). An R1 (minor) radio blackout affected an area over Bolivia. The other M flare was an M1.2 at 14:44 UTC on October 28 from AR3869 in the southeast quadrant. A corresponding R1 (minor) radio blackout was observed off the east coast of Brazil. The lead flare producer of the period is again active region AR3878, which blasted out eight flares. Ten numbered active regions can be seen today on the Earth-facing side of the solar disk.
Sun news October 28: Sun-stuff arrives! Auroras tonight?
The coronal mass ejection (CME) produced during Saturday’s X1.9 flare reached Earth earlier today. The glancing blow disturbed Earth’s magnetic field up to a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm level at 5:59 UTC. At the time of this writing (11 UTC October 28) active disturbance is ongoing, while G2 (moderate) levels are expected during the rest of the day. All this means another night of auroral displays is possible. They could be visible tonight in northern latitudes as far south as the northernmost U.S. states. Did you see the auroras last night? Share your beautiful photos with us.
Last 24 hours: Two M flares over the past day have kept solar activity at moderate. But solar activity is perking up: we saw 17 flares produced over the past 24 hours, compared to the previous day’s total of 10 flares. Between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, we observed the two M flares and another 15 C flares. Plus, a gorgeous prominence on the northeast limb (edge) suggests that action could be rotating onto the Earth-viewed side of our sun. The largest event of the past day was an M2.9 flare, sparked at 23:24 UTC on October 27 by newcomer active region AR3878 in the northeast. A corresponding R1 (minor) radio blackout was observed over Fiji Island. The second M flare of the period was an M1.3 produced at 4:09 UTC on October 28 from this same sunspot region AR3878. An R1 (minor) radio blackout registered over an area off the northwest coast of Australia. Today the sun has 11 numbered active region on its Earth-facing side. There are two newcomers on the solar disk today: one in the southeast quadrant now numbered AR3877, and one on the northeast limb (edge) labeled AR3878. AR3878 is very prolific already, having produced the two M flares and added another nine C flares to become today’s lead flare producer. Two of the 11 active regions, AR3869 and AR3872, have high-potential beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexities. Active regions AR3874, AR3876 and AR3878 show beta-gamma configurations, while the rest are simple alpha or beta regions.
Sun news October 27: Geomagnetic storming last night, and more coming
The expected blob of solar materials and magnetic field – aka as coronal mass ejection or CME, associated with the October 24 X3.3 flare – did arrive late yesterday and disturbed Earth’s magnetic field up to a Kp = 4 (no NOAA scale for this level). Another blob of stuff hurled by the sun associated with yesterday’s X1.9 flare is coming. This second X flare produced an asymmetric full halo event, an event that sometimes indicates the CME is Earth-directed. But due to the location of AR3873 on the sun’s Earth-facing disk, the bulk of the solar mass was ejected by the sun toward the southeast, so only a glancing blow is anticipated. Arrival is expected on early October 28 and it might provide conditions for a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm. Auroras coming….maybe. Alert for aurora hunters in high latitudes. A complementary solar news, the much-anticipated sungrazing comet – C/2024 S1 ATLAS – has now entered in the field of view of SOHO’s LASCO C3 imager. It was captured as it dives in into the sun. Keep with us, as we will continue bringing you the sun news.
Last 24 hours: Over the past day, the sun reduced to low. We had three relatively small M flares, plus seven Cs, for a total flaring production of 10 flares during our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today). The largest flare was an M2.9, sparked at 12:06 UTC on October 26 from an unnumbered yet incoming region on the southeast. After this flare, an R1 (minor) radio blackout was observed affecting an area over the Atlantic Ocean. Lead flare producer of the period was this as-yet-unnumbered newcomer. It fired five flares, three Cs plus the three M flares of the day. This is the list of the M flares:
-M2.2 at 11:50 UTC on October 26 from incoming region on the southeast. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Africa.
-M2.9 at 12:06 UTC on October 26 from incoming region on the southeast. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean. The largest.
-M1.7 at 14:16 UTC on October 26 from incoming region on the southeast. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean off the east coast of Brazil.
Currently, the sun has 10 numbered active region on its Earth-facing side. There is a newcomer on the solar southeast quadrant, now numbered AR3876. The magnetic configuration these 10 active configuration show today, AR3872 keeps its beta-gamma-delta complexity, the largest there is with potential for more M and even X flares; active regions AR3869 and AR3873 have a beta-gamma configuration. The rest show simpler alpha or betas.
Sun news October 26: Another X flare!
Another X flare erupted on the sun this morning (at 7:19 UTC on October 26). This X1.9 came from active region AR3873, which is in the sun’s southeast. An R3 (strong) radio blackout happened just after the blast, affecting an area over the Indian Ocean. Shortly before the X, AR3873 also blasted out an almost-X flare, an M9.5 flare at 6:23 UTC on October 26. So … almost two X flares in less than an hour! AR3873 is located in the same vicinity as the X flare producer from two days ago, active region AR3869. We are looking at a big group of sunspots in the sun’s southeast – visible a few days ago on the sun’s far side, thanks to helioseismology – and now just rotated into view on the sun’s Earth-facing side. This area of the sun looks fiery! And today’s X1.9 flare produced a full halo event – an indication that another coronal mass ejection or CME might be headed for Earth – registered by SOHO’s LASCO C3 imager. We’ll know for sure, after modeling and analysis from sun scientists. At the moment of this writing, AR3872 shows a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity, the most complex configuration possible. So it has the potential for more M and even X flares. Stay tuned.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity is high. In addition to this morning’s X flare, we saw 12 flares over the past day (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today): an X, an M added 10 C flares. That’s in contrast to yesterday’s seven flares. The sunspot region AR3873, along with AR386272, were the top flare producers of the past day. These two active regions blasted out four flares each. Today, the sun shows 11 numbered active regions on its Earth-facing side. There are two newcomers on the sun’s northeast quadrant, now numbered AR3874 and AR3875.
Sun news October 25: After the X3, a blob of sun-stuff might give Earth a glancing blow
A chunk of solar materials and magnetic fields – aka a coronal mass ejection or CME – was produced during yesterday’s powerful X3.3 flare. SOHO’s LASCO C2 and C3 imagery showed an asymmetric full halo event, an event that frequently indicates sun-stuff coming our way. Due to the location of sunspot region AR3869, author of the X3 flare, most of the solar materials and magnetic fields were thrown southeastward during the blast. After modeling and analysis, specialists found a component of the solar plasma and magnetic fields hurled into space coming our way at Earth. Chances are it’ll provide a glancing blow. Arrival time is expected by midday on October 26. It might bring conditions for auroral displays in high latitudes. Disturbance of Earth’s magnetic field is anticipated to go up to a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm level. Stay with us for more sun news.
Last 24 hours: After yesterday’s X3 flare – which brought sun activity to high – solar activity has dropped back to moderate during the past day (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today). We saw seven flares in all, with an isolated M1.2 flare this morning (7:33 UTC on October 25). It was produced by sunspot region AR3873 in the sun’s southeast. An R1 (minor) radio blackout was observed after the flare affecting an area over the Indian Ocean. In terms of numbers, the lead flare producer of the period was region AR3869, which produced two C flares. Currently, the sun has eight numbered sunspot regions on its Earth-facing side. There are three newcomers in the southeast neighborhood now labeled AR3871, AR3872 and AR3873.
Sun news October 24: X3 flare ends solar activity drought
After lull of some days, our sun awakes with an X3.3 flare! The event occurred at 3:57 UTC this morning (October 24). Sunspot region AR3969, now incoming in the sun’s southeast, produced it. This active region just came into view yesterday, and today it can be seen more clearly. It’s large in extension. At the time of the blast, it showed a beta-gamma magnetic complexity. The flare provoked an
R3 (strong) radio blackout over the Timor Sea off the northwest coast of Australia and a Type II solar radio burst. SOHO’s LASCO C2 and C3 captured the flare, which hurled a burp of sun material and magnetic fields – a coronal mass ejection (CME) – into space. LASCO imagery shows a full halo event after the blast, which often indicates the CME is headed Earth’s way. We anxiously await an expert result from modeling and analysis, to know whether any component is indeed coming. Stay tuned.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity is now high, thanks to the X flare. The sun produced only eight flares over the past day (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today): an X flare, one M flare and six C flares. The largest was the above-mentioned X3.3 flare blasted out at at 3:57 UTC on October 24 by active region AR3969 in the southeast. The M flare was an M1.2 flare at 10:29 UTC on October 24 also from AR3869. It caused an R1 (minor) radio blackout over South Africa. Lead flare producer of the day was region AR3869, which produced six flares, the period’s X3.3 flare, an M flare added four C flares. Currently, the sun has six sunspot regions on its Earth-facing side.
Sun news October 23: Sun scientists get a new tool
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shared its first imagery from its brand-new coronagraph (CCOR-1) yesterday. This instrument is a coronagraph, a sort of telescope that blocks the central part of the sun’s light, so that the sun’s outer layers (its corona) can be observed in detail. Many times in this daily sun post, we’ve published imagery provided by the LASCO coronagraph aboard the sun-observing SOHO satellite. SOHO was launched in 1995, so LASCO has operated long past its programmed lifetime. It could stop sending images any minute! On June 25, 2024, NOAA’s GOES-U satellite was launched and renamed GOES-19 once in orbit. GOES-19 is carrying what NOAA calls “the first operational coronagraph.” LASCO was clearly operational as well; but LASCO was launched as a test, for science purposes, and only became functionally operational after a time. NOAA’s new instrument – CCOR-1 – is the first designed for continuous tracking of the sun’s corona, or outer atmosphere. Its primary job is spaceweather monitoring and forecasting. It uses what’s called an occulter to block the sun itself, allowing us to see bursts of sun-stuff – coronal mass ejections, or CMEs – like the one exploding from the left side of the sun in the image below. CCOR-1 will be used by spaceweather forecasters – like Shawn Dahl, who spoke with us about the spaceweather “hotline” a few months ago – to help keep earthly technologies (like power grids) safe from outages due to solar storms. CCOR-1 will be operating along with the Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) and Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Sensors (EXIS). So a big thank you to LASCO for its extended service! And congrats to NOAA for this new achievement.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity is low. The sun produced only five C flares – aka “common” flares – over the past day (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today). Two flares shared the honor of being the largest flare; both were a C5.1 flare. The first one was blasted at 12:11 UTC on October 22 by active region AR3863. The second C5.1 flare was blasted fired at 0:26 UTC on October 23 by an incoming region in the sun’s southeast (as yet unnumbered). Lead flare producer of the period was region AR3860, with two C flares. The sun has six sunspot regions on its Earth-facing side today. Region AR3863 keeps its gamma beta-gamma magnetic complexity, but produced only one flare, the largest of the period. The rest of regions on the solar disk currently have simpler alpha or beta magnetic complexities.
Sun news October 22: A lull during Solar Maximum
NASA and NOAA announced last week that the sun has reached Solar Maximum, the peak of its activity cycle. But you wouldn’t think so, given the current lull on the sun. We observed just ten C flares over the past day, keeping sun activity at low. And, although last month saw a good deal of activity, it’s just been announced that solar activity – as measured by the number of sunspots on the sun – dropped between August and September. This situation illustrates the difficulty of determining the peak of a solar cycle. To do so accurately, we have to wait several months and compare monthly activity against the time of the sun’s magnetic field flip. For now, though, we can expect a return to action before too long.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity remains low, with only C flares produced over the past day. Between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today the sun fired 10 flares. The largest was a C6.2 at 10 UTC on October 21 from active region AR3868. The lead flare producer of the period was region AR3863, with six C flares. We continue to observe jets and coronal loops growing on the eastern limb (edge), along with energetic prominences and filaments. The sun has 11 sunspot regions on its disk as viewed from Earth. There are five newcomers today: AR3864, AR3865, AR3866, AR3867, and AR3868. Region AR3859 lost its gamma magnetic complexity, but AR3863 is now a promising beta-gamma region. The remaining regions on the solar disk have simpler alpha or beta magnetic complexities.
Sun news October 21: Action on the way?
Our star is showing signs that the current lull in activity could be ending soon. Despite officially reaching Solar Maximum last week, the sun has been fairly inactive over the past few days, and activity continued to decrease over the past 24 hours. But the sun-observing GOES-R and SDO spacecraft have spotted coronal loops growing on the eastern limb (edge), along with energetic prominences and filaments. These point to active regions near the sun’s edge, soon to rotate into view. Plus, scientists have detected several active regions on the sun’s far side through helioseismology: the study of vibrations running through the sun. Action seems to be on the way, so stay tuned.
Last 24 hours: Over the past day (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), the sun produced nine C flares. This brings sun activity down from moderate to low. The largest was a C5 flare at 22:35 UTC on October 20 from active region AR3863. The lead flare producer of the period was AR3863 with six C flares. Region AR3859 has a beta-gamma magnetic complexity. The remaining regions on the solar disk have simpler alpha or beta magnetic complexity. The sun currently has nine sunspot regions on its disk.
Sun news October 20: Farewell, sunspot region AR3854
Happy Sun Day! Sun activity was high for much of the past week, but dropped to moderate during the last 24 hours. The drop was largely due to AR3854’s rotation over the sun’s western limb (edge). AR3854 was responsible for much of the sun’s recent activity. It’s gone now, but we can expect more activity from the west limb, due to this region. Meanwhile, helioseismology is showing several active regions on the sun’s far side. The two largest regions are expected in 4 to 6 days. Stay for more solar activity. And watch Friday’s Sun News of the Week livestream replay below to find more information about Solar Max, which was officially announced this past week.
Last 24 hours: Over the past day (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), the sun produced 10 flares: one M (moderate) and nine C (common) flares. The brings sun activity down from high to a moderate level. The largest was an M1.7 flare at 14:34 UTC on October 19, produced by active region AR3854. Shortly after the flare, an R1 (minor) radio blackout affected an area over Africa. The lead flare producer of the period was region AR3854 with three flares, the one M and two C flares. The region has rotated over the western limb. This fact has probably affected the number of smaller flares we’re observing in the region. Additionally, because the sun’s limb (edge) partially blocked the M1.7 flare, it was likely stronger than what was measured by our spacecraft. Regions AR3856 and AR3859 have a beta-gamma magnetic complexity. The region regions on the solar disk have simpler alpha or beta magnetic complexity. The sun has eight sunspot regions on its disk.
NASA and NOAA said this week that the sun has officially reached Solar Maximum, the peak of its 11-year cycle. NASA heliophysicist C. Alex Young – a co-author of our daily sun news – and EarthSky’s founder Deborah Byrd spoke LIVE on Friday about them momentous event. Watch in the player above, or on YouTube.
Sun news October 19: High sun activity is back
The sun is back in the business of being at Solar Max! Sun activity has been considered high over the past day, thanks to an M6.5 flare. It’s not an X flare, but headed that way. Active region AR3854, now on the sun’s west limb and about to be carried out of view, is the driver of the current bump up in activity. AR3854 also produced the other three M flares during our 24-hour observation period. More signs of an active sun … the sun is covered with filaments right now, as expected for a sun at Solar Maximum. Some of these filaments have the potential for eruption, so stay tuned! And watch Friday’s livestream replay above. Or find more information about Solar Max at C. Alex Young’s The Sun Today.)
Last 24 hours: Over the past day (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), the sun produced nine flares: four M and five C flares. The largest was an M6.5 flare at 6:56 UTC on October 19 produced by active region AR3854. Shortly after the flare, an R2 (minor) radio blackout affected an area over the Indian Ocean. The lead flare producer of the period was region AR3854 with six flares, the four M flares and two C flares. The breakdown of the M flares of the period is:
- M1.1 at 17:36 UTC on October 18 from AR3854. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Peru.
- M4.8 at 19:38 UTC on October 18 from AR3854. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
- M4.8 at 23:28 UTC on October 18 from AR3854. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the French Polynesia.
- M6.5 at 06:56 UTC on October 19 from AR3854. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Indian Ocean. The Largest.
The overall magnetic complexity of the other regions on the sun is not high (magnetic complexity correlates with an increased potential for flaring). AR3854 has a beta-gamma complexity, but this rating isn’t super-reliable given its location. AR3856 and AR3857 also have beta-gamma configurations, and the remaining are either simple alpha or beta regions. There are two new regions, AR3862 and AR3863. The sun has eight numbered active regions on its Earth-facing side. Three other active regions have beta-gamma configurations: AR3854, AR3656 and AR3857. The remaining active regions show a simpler alpha or beta magnetic complexity. There are two newcomers on the Earth-facing solar disk – AR3862 and AR3863 – both on the sun’s southeast limb (edge).
Sun news October 18: It’s official, Solar Max is here
It is official. Welcome to Solar Maximum! A NASA/NOAA panel announced the official status of Solar Cycle 25 on October 15, 2024. Despite this announcement – believe it or not – solar activity has been low over the past day. Also, sunspot regions AR3854 and AR3859 lost their delta magnetic complexity (and, thereby, their high potential for more strong M and X flares). But low sun activity isn’t contrary to the sun’s Solar Maximum. That’s because Solar Maximum isn’t a point in time. It’s a period of time usually lasting from 6 months up to 2-3 years. So this seeming contradiction – low sun activity in the week Solar Max is officially announced – is perfectly normal. Stay tuned for the next time of solar excitement!
Last 24 hours: We had only C flares over the past day (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today). And there were fewer flares, too. The sun produced nine C flares in the past day, in contrast to 14 flares from the previous day. The largest was a C6.6 flare sparked at 14:27 UTC on October 17 from AR3860. The lead flare producer of the period was this same active region – AR3860 – with six C flares in all. The sun has six numbered active regions on its Earth-facing side.
Sun news October 17: Another chance for geomagnetic storms?
Today’s top story: We didn’t observe any geomagnetic storming yesterday, which had been forecast after a chunk of sun-stuff was blasted in our direction on October 11. But there’s chance we’ll see a G1 (minor) storm tonight from a different source: sun-stuff that left our star on October 15, which could be bolstered by fast solar wind streaming out of a large coronal hole in the solar northwest. Let’s see if this round of storming arrives. Meanwhile, three sunspot regions – AR3854, AR3856 and AR3859 – have beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexites, indicating the potential for large M flares and even X flares. Stay tuned for potential excitement!
Last 24 hours: Sun activity remained moderate over the past day. In our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), our star produced five Ms and 13 C flares. The largest was an M2.4 flare at 5:05 UTC on October 17 from AR3854. A corresponding R1 (minor) radio blackout affected an area off the west coast of Indonesia. Active sunspot region AR3854 is the lead flare producer of the day with eight flares, two M and six C flares. The list of the period’s M flares is:
- M1.5 at 13:27 UTC on October 16 from AR3852. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
- M1.3 at 14:42 UTC on October 16 from AR3854. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean off the east coast of Brazil.
- M1.3 at 15:00 UTC on October 16 from AR3852. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Brazil.
- M1.0 at 2:22 UTC on October 17 from AR3856. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Papua New Guinea.
- M2.4 at 5:05 UTC on October 17 from AR3854. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Indian Sea off the west coast of Indonesia. The largest.
The sun currently has seven numbered active regions on its Earth-facing side.
Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%, the chance for M flares is 80%, and the chance for X flares is 20%.
Next expected CME: No coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on October 17). The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled-to-active levels through today as influence of high-speed solar wind from the current coronal hole wanes. Active levels are anticipated on October 18-19, due to the influence of another, larger coronal hole. There’s a chance for G1 (minor) storm conditions tonight through tomorrow due to a potential glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection (CME) on the western limb, associated with the M2 flare from sunspot AR3854 on October 15.
Sun news October 16: Minor geomagnetic storm tonight?
In contrast to last week’s auroral excitement, the sun appears to be taking a break. But a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm might happen later on today. It’s the result of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the sun on October 11, with a boost from fast solar wind streaming out of a large coronal hole in the sun’s northwest quadrant. Stay tuned.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity has been moderate over the past day. In our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), our star produced five M and 14 C flares. The largest was an M3.8 flare at 3:23 UTC on October 16 from AR3852. A corresponding R1 (minor) radio blackout affected Papua New Guinea. Active sunspot region AR3852 continues to be the lead flare producer of the day with two M and 11 C flares. The list of the period’s M flares is:
- M1.7 at 18:18 UTC on October 15 from AR3848. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean off the south coast of Galapagos.
- M2.1 at 18:33 UTC on October 15 from AR3848. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
- M3.8 at 03:23 UTC on October 16 from AR3852. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Papua New Guinea. The largest.
- M3.7 at 03:46 UTC on October 16 from AR3854. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Banda Sea in Indonesia.
- M2.8 at 05:15 UTC on October 16 from AR3852. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Indian Ocean off the west coast of Singapur.
Active regions AR3852 and AR3854 maintained their beta-gamma configurations while the remaining regions show simpler alpha or beta configurations. The sun has eight numbered active region on its Earth-facing side. There is a newcomer sunspot region on the southeast quadrant, AR3859.
Sun news October 15: A new leading sunspot region
Sunspot region AR3848, the driver of last week’s auroral excitement, has now rotated out of view over the sun’s west limb (edge). But sunspot region AR3852 has taken up the mantle, producing 16 flares over the past 24 hours, including 3 M flares. It has also produced many plasma jets and an active filament. AR3852 has lost its high-potential delta region, but it’s still the region to watch. Stay tuned.
Last 24 hours: Four M Flares over the past day keeps solar activity at moderate. Flare productivity also increased to a total of 20 flares during our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), compared to 13 the day before. Over the past 24 hours, we observed 16 C and four M flares. The largest flare of the day was an M1.9 produced at 2:13 UTC on October 15 by AR3852. Shortly after the flare, an R1 (minor) radio blackout affected an area over Papua New Guinea. The lead flare producer on the solar disk is AR3852, which produced 16 flares in the last 24 hours: three M flares and 13 C flares. The list of the period’s M flares is:
- M1.8 at 13:37 UTC on October 14 from AR3848. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean off the east coast of Brazil.
- M1.9 at 2:13 UTC on October 15 from AR3852. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Papua New Guinea. The largest.
- M1.2 at 2:27 UTC on October 15 from AR3852. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Papua New Guinea.
- M1.3 at 10:09 UTC on October 15 from AR3852. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Africa.
The two largest sunspot regions are AR3852 and AR3854. These regions have beta-gamma configurations. The remaining regions show simpler alpha or beta configurations. The sun has eight numbered active region on its Earth-facing side. There are two newcomer sunspot regions: AR3857 and AR3858.
Sun news October 14: Sun activity picks up
After a calm Sunday, activity has picked up a bit. Sunspot region AR3848, the region that drove last week’s auroral display, produced an M3.4 solar flare at 00:17 UTC on October 14. That’s a moderately strong flare. Two filaments – ropes of solar material and magnetic fields, arcing up from the visible surface of the sun – also got our attention. On the southwest limb (edge), a filament erupted into a beautiful prominence (a filament visible on the edge of the sun). Another region, on the southeast limb (edge), saw an active filament rattling around. It has not yet erupted, but is worth watching. Stay tuned for more activity.
Last 24 hours: Flare activity increased to moderate levels. The sun produced 13 flares during our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), 12 Cs and an M flare. The largest flare of the day was the M3.4 flare from AR3848. The erupting M flare released an EIT wave across the sun, a super-hot solar tsunami that appears as a brightening across the sun’s visible surface. The flare also caused an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean. The sun has nine numbered active region on its Earth-facing side.
Last week’s great auroral display
EarthSky sun post co-author – NASA heliophysicist C. Alex Young – drove to western Maryland Thursday night for dark skies, after a forecast of strong geomagnetic storming and the prospects of a BIG auroral display. Alex spoke about this event LIVE on Friday with EarthSky’s Deborah Byrd. Watch the replay.Sun news October 13: Happy quiet sun day!
Happy Sun Day! It is a calm day on the sun and in Earth’s geomagnetic field. This comes after a spectacular couple of weeks with multiple X flares, the largest flare of the solar cycle, and another spectacular day of nearly global auroras. Looking at the sun in extreme ultravioet light, giant loops and active regions are visible. These are many of the signs of an active sun. So why is the sun so calm with large flares, eruptions, or prominences. But this period of calm is also a normal part of the solar maximum sun. During solar maximum there will always be periods of calm between the storms. The question now is: when will activity pick up again? Stay tuned.
Last 24 hours: Flare activity decreased to low levels. Ten C flares occurred during our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today). The largest was a C5.7 flare produced at 20:05 UTC on October 12 from AR3850. The sun has seven numbered active region on its Earth-facing side. The largest region, AR3548, will soon rotate over the northwest limb (edge). Region AR3848 is at the western limb (edege). The region and AR3854 both have beta-gamma magnetic complexity. The remaining regions are alpha or beta.
Sun news October 12: After the storm, a calm. But … coronal holes!
A calm, after the storm. Beautiful memories and many photos remain after the outstanding geomagnetic storm G4 (severe) we saw on the night of October 10-11. The auroras were visible as far south as Mexico and the Bahamas. Did you see anything? Please share your photo with EarthSky’s community page. We’ve compiled selected community photos from Thursday night’s event here. Will there be more auroras this weekend? More than likely not. There could always be an unexpected change, but based on current forecasts, only those at high latitudes, such as Alaska, mid-to-upper Canada, and Scandinavia, will get a show. Otherwise, things have calmed down for now. But the sun is still blasting out moderately strong M flares. And the sun has two large 2 coronal holes that should start providing us at Earth with their fast solar wind. That fast solar wind won’t give us a display like Thursday night. But it might enhance displays at high latitudes. Stay tuned for more sun news.
Last 24 hours: Three M flares over the past day brought sun activity to moderate. Flare production increased a bit during our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today). We saw 11 flares over the past day, three M and eight C. The largest was an M2.1 flare produced at 16:33 UTC on October 11 from AR3854. The flare caused an R1 (minor) radio blackout over Peru. The other two M flares were: an M1.4 at 16:04 UTC on October 11 from AR3854 with an R1 (minor) radio blackout over northwest Brazil and a M1.0 at 23:25 UTC on October 11 from AR3842 with an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean. The sun has six numbered active region on its Earth-facing side. The largest region, AR3548, will soon rotate over the northwest limb (edge).
See many beautiful photos of Thursday night’s auroral display at EarthSky Community Photos
Sun news October 11: Auroras everywhere!
Wow! What a night! Auroras were visible Thursday night and Friday morning, across the globe. Reports have come from every one of the lower 48 states, and they keep coming. People experienced geomagnetic activity that rivaled the May 2024 superstorm. And it was all thanks to a strong coronal mass ejection that impacted Earth’s magnetic field just after midday on Thursday (October 10). The strong-to-severe activity kicked in not too long after the CME impact. Aurora reports began shortly thereafter, as skies darkened. As soon as nightfall began in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, reports of sightings both with and without camera assistance filled the internet. The storm fluctuated mostly between G3 and G4 levels with occasional G1 and G2 activity. It appears that there were three to four periods with the most activity. The most intense auroral periods were around 9 pm and 12 a.m. EDT (1 to 4 UTC on October 11). Did you see anything? Please share your photo with EarthSky’s community page. And see many wonderful community photos here, from last night. Finally, be sure to join us for our Friday sun news livestream at 12:15 pm CDT (17:15 UTC) today.
Last 24 hours: Solar activity dropped to moderate, with four M flares produced during our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today). The sun produced eight flares in all, four Ms and four Cs. The largest was an M3.0 fired at 22:30 UTC on October 10 from AR3844. Shortly after the blast an R3 (strong) radio blackout was affected an area over the Pacific Ocean. The lead flare producer of the period was active region AR3844 with three flares, the largest M and two C flares. This is the breakdown of the M flares of the period:
M1.3 at 12:01 UTC on October 10 from AR3839. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Equatorial Guinea in Africa.
M1.2 at 12:23 UTC on October 10 from AR3852. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
M1.0 at 17:00 UTC on October 10 from AR3839. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean off the northwest coast of Peru.
M3.0 at 22:30 UTC on October 10 from AR3844. Largest flare of the day. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
Sunspot region AR3848 is the largest on the Earth-facing sun, but lost its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity and now shows a simpler beta configuration. Regions AR3842, AR3849, and AR3854 lost their gamma configuration. Only AR3852 shows a beta-gamma complexity. The remaining regions have simpler beta configurations. The sun has six numbered sunspot regions on its Earth-facing side. There are two newcomers, AR3853 and AR3854.
EarthSky sun post co-author – NASA heliophysicist C. Alex Young – and his wife Linda C. Schenk drove to western Maryland Thursday night for dark skies, after a forecast of strong geomagnetic storming and the prospects of a BIG auroral display. Alex spoke about this event LIVE on Friday with EarthSky’s Deborah Byrd. Watch the replay.
Auroras in Nassau, The Bahamas for the 2nd time this year… crazy! #aurora pic.twitter.com/aOuBvxN5xQ
— Kevin Bente (@kbente242) October 10, 2024
Sun news October 10: G4 aurora watch!
Sunspot region AR3848 released an X1.8 flare at 1:56 UTC on October 9, and the flare produced an associated (halo coronal mass ejection CME), which is now headed straight for Earth. NOAA has issued a G4 (severe) geomagnetic storms watch. It could mean auroras visible in the lower-tier U.S. states, possibly even without a camera. The flare accelerated solar particles to near the speed of light, creating a solar energetic particle storm, which also came our way yesterday and was detected by our spacecraft. But, for those lucky enough to be at relatively high latitudes, the CME effects will be the big thing. When a CME like this one reaches Earth, it can create another round of beautiful auroras. As of this writing, Earth’s magnetic field is quiet. But as the CME starts to arrive later today, there should be a sudden jump in the solar wind speed. Earth’s magnetic field will become rattled, disturbed. Not long after that, the bulk of the CME (a blob of sun-stuff and magnetic fields) will hit Earth’s magnetic field, disturbing it further. The disturbance can spark auroras. The stronger the storm, the more auroras become visible at lower latitudes. Initially, G1 (minor) to G3 (strong) geomagnetic storms have been predicted. But, if conditions are right, we could have G4 (severe) or maybe – and this is a strong maybe – a G5 (extreme) storm. An important condition is the orientation of the CME’s magnetic field with respect to Earth’s. Read more here about Bz and magnetic field orientation. We won’t know that information until about 30 minutes before the CME reaches Earth. Will the event be as strong as the one in May, which caused auroras to be seen close to equatorial latitudes? Probably not. That one was caused by a chain of CMEs striking Earth. As it happens, there was also another X flare yesterday, an X1.4 from AR3843 at 15:47 UTC on October 9. But this event did not appear to produce an Earth-directed CME. So it will probably not have any effect on the upcoming aurora. Stay tuned for updates today.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity has been high over the past day (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today). We saw a total of seven flares, including an X1.4 flare, an M7.7 and five C flares. The largest flare yesterday was the X1.4 flare at 15:47 UTC, from AR3843. The flare caused an R3 (strong) radio blackout affecting an area over the north of Brazil. The M7.7 flare was produced at 23:12 UTC on October 9 from AR3842. An R1 (minor) radio blackout was observed over the Pacific Ocean. Sunspot region AR3848 is the largest on the Earth-facing sun, and kept its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity and its potential for more X and M flares. Regions AR3842, AR3849, AR3852 and AR3854 show a beta-gamma complexity. The remaining regions have simpler beta configurations. The sun has five numbered sunspot regions on its Earth-facing side.
STRONG TO SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORMS, AURORAL DISPLAYS LIKELY:
Well if you haven’t heard by now, a big solar storm is coming…
Earlier this morning in UTC time, a significant X1.8-class solar flare on the Sun led to a fast halo coronal mass ejection, or CME, that was aimed… pic.twitter.com/FDFcTMTDoB— Space Weather Watch (@spacewxwatch) October 9, 2024
HUXt is predicting a CME arrival a bit later than other models at approx. 11 Oct 6 UT (-6/+9 hr) with a 100% hit confidence. As a reminder, NOAA/NASA are in pretty tight agreement for an impact at approx. 10 Oct 16 UT. NA chasers would like something in-between these two times. pic.twitter.com/ebeF8ivcBO
— Vincent Ledvina (@Vincent_Ledvina) October 9, 2024
Sun news October 9: Another X flare! Auroras to come?
BAM! After two X flares on Monday night, the sun has fired off another today. The X1.8 flare was fired at 1:56 UTC this morning by AR3438, the largest and most complex sunspot group on the solar disk. AR3848 is also close to the center of the disk, placing it in a great location to send sun-stuff our way. And that’s exactly what it did. The flare produced a halo coronal mass ejection (CME), which indicates that the sun-stuff was fired straight towards Earth. In addition, a shock wave from this eruption accelerated solar particles to near the speed of light, creating a solar energetic particle storm. When the CME reaches Earth, it could cause another round of beautiful auroras. We are awaiting a detailed analysis, but it looks promising in the above SOHO spacecraft imagery. The imagery also shows the amazingly bright Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan–ATLAS) making its close approach to the sun.
Last 24 hours: Solar activity is high after the X flare. However, flare production decreased to ten flares during our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today): an X flare, one M and eight C flares. The X1.8 flare that AR3848 produced at 1:56 UTC on October 9 was the largest of the past 24 hours. This region is the largest on the Earth-facing sun, and has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. The X flare caused a radio blackout east of South Asia, just north of Australia. Also, at 5:46 UTC this morning, AR3849 produced an M1.6 that caused an R1 (minor) radio blackout affecting an area over the Indian Ocean west of Indonesia. The sun currently has five numbered sunspot regions on its Earth-facing side. AR3842, AR3849, and AR3852 have beta-gamma magnetic complexities, while the remaining sunspot regions on the solar disk show either alpha or beta configurations.
???It’s coming! Holy Moly! An X1.8 flare from AR3848, then a blast of sun stuff (a CME), and they created a shock driving particles (snow on images) to near the speed of light. The source was near the Earth-facing solar disk’s center. So this stuff is headed our way—and it’s… pic.twitter.com/sarIBiHvYs
— Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) October 9, 2024
Sun news October 8: Two X flares. Auroras. Comet. Wow!
It’s been a busy day of solar activity! Northern latitudes were treated to beautiful auroras last night, as sun-stuff launched by last week’s X9 flare brought up to G3 (strong) geomagnetic storming. And the sunspot region that produced that flare, AR3842, is still firing on all cylinders. It blasted an X2 flare last night, not long after another X flare from nearby region AR3844. The X2 released an impressive near-full halo coronal mass ejection (CME), which you can see above. And to top it off, you can also see Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan–ATLAS) soaring into view, looking stunningly bright. It’s being said this is the brightest comet the SOHO spacecraft’s LASCO C3 instrument has ever imaged. What a day!
Last 24 hours: The two X flares brought sun activity up to a high level. Flaring production increased during our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today) from nine flares the previous day to 12 flares this time: two X flares, two Ms and eight C flares. The largest flare of the period was the X2.2, blasted out at 19:13 UTC on October 7 by AR3842. This region is now very close to the limb (edge) in the southwest. Here’s a breakdown of the X and M flares from the past 24 hours:
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- M1.3 at 18:38 UTC on October 7 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout in the Pacific Ocean over Galapagos.
- X2.2 at 19:13 UTC on October 7 from AR3842. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of Galapagos. The largest.
- X1.0 at 21:02 UTC on October 7 from AR3844. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
- M1.2 at 8:51 UTC on October 8 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Madagascar.
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Currently the sun has seven numbered sunspot regions on its Earth-facing side, including newcomer AR3852. Among the eye-catching active regions, AR3848 is showing potential with a beta-gamma magnetic complexity. AR3842 has lost its delta region, so it’s showing a beta-gamma configuration along with AR3849. The rest of the sunspot regions on the solar disk have simple alpha or beta configurations.
???AR3842 is not done! X flare! An X2.2 fired off peaking at 19:13 UTC. It produced a radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean. Will there be more? Waiting on more data to determine the CME situation.
More updates tomorrow at https://t.co/xD29wLfm4e pic.twitter.com/6mqL5mASAs
— Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) October 7, 2024
Sun news October 7: Auroras overnight
We didn’t receive the G2 (moderate) or G3 (strong) geomagnetic storms that had been forecast for last night, but Earth’s magnetic field was still disturbed enough for some beautiful auroral displays. The coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the sun early on October 4 after a huge X9 flare provided about six hours of G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming. The impact of the CME initially was a disappointment, but – possibly thanks to it being the equinox aurora season – amazing auroras were reported in Canada and Alaska, along with with some reports from other northern U.S. states. Did you catch a glimpse? Send us your photos!
Last 24 hours: Sun activity is moderate. During our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), the sun produced eight flares: four Ms and four C flares. The largest flare of the period was an M1.6 at 21:19 UTC on October 6 from AR3839. The most productive region was our recent X flare-producing AR3842, with five flares. This region is now moving close to the western limb (edge). Here’s the list of M flares from the past 24 hours:
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- M1.3 at 15:21 UTC on October 6 from AR3844. R1 (minor) radio blackout over South America.
- M1.0 at 16:45 UTC on October 6 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout over South America.
- M1.4 at 18:59 UTC on October 6 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
- M1.6 at 21:19 UTC on October 6 from AR3839. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean. The largest.
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The sun has six numbered sunspot regions on its Earth-facing side, including newcomer AR3850. AR3842 has a beta-gamma magnetic complexity. The remaining are simple alpha regions except for AR3841, which is a beta region.
Nice aurora tonight in North Pole, Alaska above my house! Here’s a real-time video. pic.twitter.com/4apizNtFZX
— Vincent Ledvina (@Vincent_Ledvina) October 7, 2024
Woah!! LOVE the reflection!! A 5 shot pano at Haunted Lakes, Alberta tonight!
@treetanner @MatthewCappucci @TamithaSkov @chunder10 @scottrockphoto @ScottWx_TWN @ pic.twitter.com/V0yuUoZDSO
— Dar Tanner (@dartanner) October 7, 2024
Round 2 11:15 pm North Idaho #auroraborealis #aurora #northernlights@TamithaSkov @TweetAurora @AuroraAlertsApp @AmazingAurora21 pic.twitter.com/5Ld1vLaNcD
— Bella Dahlia (@brattyassbella) October 7, 2024
This mornings Aurora display from Great Yarmouth @StormchaserUKEU @carlharlott @danholley_ @stormbell @Lowweather @PhotographyWx @bbcweather @BBCWthrWatchers @itvweather @metoffice @ChrisPage90 @WeatherAisling #loveukweather? @liamdutton @GavinPartridge @BBCLookEast @itvanglia pic.twitter.com/Hd54wjj5g1
— Simon’s Weather Photography (@simon_weather) October 7, 2024
Sun news October 6: Giant plasma stream waiting for auroras
Happy Sun Day! We are anticipating the arrival of one or more coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from two X flares and several M flares over the past week. The main driver of this activity was the large and magnetically complicated sunspot region, AR3842. The CME or combination of CMEs could reach Earth at any moment, but it is also possible that nothing happens. This is the challenge for predicting space weather. There are a lot of uncertainties. Sometimes analysts are spot on and sometimes not. Overall, they do a fantastic job and keep getting better, but they are still subject to the limitations of the data and our physics knowledge. Heliophysics is the study of the sun and its influence on everything in the solar system. This is the field that drives and expands our understanding of space weather and its impact on our society. As we await CMEs and possible auroras tonight or tomorrow, sun activity has been moderate. The past 24 hours has seen four small M flares. The most notable event is an amazing eruption of solar plasma off the southwest limb (edge). It sprayed out a distance of over 40+ Earths in length, and that was just the part we were able to see in the imagery. The event probably released a CME, though its location on the sun would indicate that the event was not Earth-directed. Auroras may be visible at latitudes like Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Oregon, and possibly further south. So get your cameras and maybe cold weather gear if necessary. Consider sharing your photos with EarthSky.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity is moderate. During our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), the sun produced 12 flares, four smaller M and eight large C flares. The largest flare of the period is an M2.4 at 23:20 UTC on October 5 from AR3842. The most productive region was AR3842 with five flares. The list of M flares:
M1.1 at 20:40 UTC on October 5 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Africa.
M2.4 at 23:20 UTC on October 5 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean. The largest.
M1.0 at 00:18 UTC on October 6 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
M1.1 at 01:47 UTC on October 6 from AR3844. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Indonesia and Australia.
The sun has eight numbered sunspot regions on its Earth-facing side. One active region has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity, AR3842. AR3848 has a beta-delta complexity. Four regions have a beta-gamma complexity, AR3841, AR3843, AR3844, and AR3849.
Sun news October 5: Could it be an aurora weekend?
We are waiting on the sun or, more specifically, on multiple blobs of sun-stuff to reach Earth, bringing hope for auroras this weekend. This past week’s X7 and X9 flares, along with several M flares, have sent coronal mass ejections, aka CMEs heading our way. Staring with the X7 on Tuesday, and adding in the X9 flare on Thursday and a sprinkling of other moderate or M flares, several CMEs are heading to Earth. This means Earth’s magnetic field should be disturbed to the point of moderate-to-strong geomagnetic storms and auroras. The first of the CMEs are anticipated at any time, which will kick things off. The pileup of several CMEs either in transit or at Earth should bring the beginning of the aurora, peaking into tomorrow with a probably G3 storm and a possible G4 storm. The stronger the storm, the farther south they could be observed. The aurora forecast from NOAA in this post shows the extent of main auroral displays in the red region, while the red line shows an estimate of how far the aurora will be visible on the horizon. Auroras may be visible at latitudes like Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Oregon, and possibly further south. So get your cameras and maybe cold weather gear if necessary. Consider sharing your photos with EarthSky.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity is moderate. During our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), the sun produced 13 flares, five smaller M and eight large C flares. The largest flare of the period is an M1.7 at 8:40 UTC on October d from AR3836. The most productive region was AR3842 with five flares. The list of M flares:
M1.2 at 11:03 UTC on October 4 from AR3836. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Africa.
M1.1 at 21:04 UTC on October 4 from AR3844. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
M1.2 at 22:11 UTC on October 4 from AR3845. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
M1.0 at 00:12 UTC on October 5 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Indonesia and Australia.
M1.7 at 08:40 UTC on October 5 from Currently can’t determine. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Indian Ocean, west of Africa. The largest.
The sun has eight numbered sunspot regions on its Earth-facing side. Three active regions show a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity, AR3842 in the southwest, AR3844 in the southwest,f and AR3848 in the northeast limb (edge).
EarthSky’s Deborah Byrd and heliophysicist C. Alex Young of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center – co-author of this daily sun new post – round up the week’s most important sun news every Friday. On Friday, October 4, spoke about this week’s 2 big X flares, and more! It was fun. Watch the replay here.
Sun news October 4: BAM, X9 flare! Biggest of Solar Cycle 25 so far
What a week it’s been for solar flares! We had an X7 on Tuesday (October 1). Then, at 12:10 UTC yesterday (October 3), just minutes after the cut-off for our daily sun update, the sun released an X9 flare: the biggest flare of Solar Cycle 25 so far. It came from sunspot region AR3842, same region that fired the X7 flare on Tuesday. This region is currently in a geoeffective position on the sun, meaning any released materials will be capable of affecting Earth. So any sun-stuff ejected during this flare would likely be on a course for Earth. There’s already sun-stuff headed our way from the X7 flare on Tuesday. It could mean a great auroral display, starting late tonight or early tomorrow morning … through Saturday. The series of tweet below show the progression of events starting at the sun and ending with CMEs headed to Earth. Stay informed with this week’s Sun News of the Week livestream at 12:15 p.m. CDT (17:15 UTC) on Friday, October 4. Click here to join.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity is high! During our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), the sun reduced its flare production from 15 flares yesterday down to only five flares this time. But it was an X9 plus five M flares! There were no C flares. The background over the past day has been too high to have smaller flares. They were all overwhelmed by the big ones. The lead flare producers of the period – in terms of numbers of flares – are active regions AR3842 and AR3844, with two M flares each. The largest flare of the period and the largest X flare of Solar Cycle 25 so far was the X9 flare, at 12:18 UTC on October 3 from AR3842. The blast caused an R3 (strong) radio blackout that affected an area over the Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Africa.This is the list of the X and M flares:
X9 at 12:18 UTC on October 3 from AR3842. R3 (strong) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Africa. The largest.
M1.5 at 17:21 UTC on October 3 from AR3844. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of Ecuador.
M6.7 at 20:28 UTC on October 3 from AR3843. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean west of Galapagos.
M2.3 at 21:41 UTC on October 3 from AR3844. R3 (strong) radio blackout in the middle of nowhere over the Pacific Ocean.
M1.2 at 00:17 UTC on October 4 from AR3841. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
M4.0 at 04:43 UTC on October 4 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Indonesia.
The sun has eight numbered sunspot regions on its Earth-facing side. Three active regions show a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity, AR3842 in the southwest, AR3844 in the southwest and AR3848 in the northeast limb (edge). AR3843 kept its beta-delta configuration.
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? WOW! Today’s X9 flare happened close to disk center. Meaning a material that blasted off the Sun could be headed our way. This blob of sun stuff is what could cause auroras if it reaches Earth. Here is a video of 4 different wavelengths. Also, there is a… pic.twitter.com/wzoNvugx0m
— Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) October 4, 2024
MOST POWERFUL FLARE IN SOLAR CYCLE 25.
It was X9.0 in GOES X-ray measurement. It was quite eruptive, leaving a coronal wave. The eruption/CME seemed to result from magnetic reconnection rather than ideally from a pre-existing flux rope. It may come in less than 3 days. pic.twitter.com/1EedHVlmmg
— Halo CME (@halocme) October 3, 2024
Solar Orbiter @ESASolarOrbiter was in a great position to catch the recent X-class flare activity; in a quadrature configuration with Earth. @EuiTelescope and @stix_so see the event on the limb, whilst Earth observers see it disk-center! pic.twitter.com/LoKvz7E59K
— Dr Adam Finley (@AdamF_Astro) October 3, 2024
AR3842 launched another Earth-directed CME following the X9 flare earlier today.
COR imagery is a bit messy to analyze and measure due to other eruptions occurring at the same time. Modeling is underway with some outputs already available, but I will dive more into a potential… pic.twitter.com/FY8eYzAz12
— ?? Sara Housseal ?? (@SNHWx) October 3, 2024
G3 Watches 4-6 Oct due to G3 potential with CME arrivals. These CMEs have been analyzed and Earth-directed components are likely. The model run includes arrival of today’s CME later on the 5 Oct UTC day with passage continuing into 6 Oct. Visit https://t.co/YLUbTRM02y for more. pic.twitter.com/ewqizV37kw
— NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (@NWSSWPC) October 3, 2024
Sun news October 3: Auroras! Friday night lights?
Tuesday’s huge X7.1 solar flare sent a chunk of sun-stuff – a coronal mass ejection – toward Earth. It’s expected to glance our magnetic field sometime between late today and early Saturday, with an arrival tomorrow looking most likely. A G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm is anticipated, with the possibility of G3 (strong) storming. And that could mean auroral displays well into the northern US states! Good luck, aurora hunters.
Last 24 hours: Seven M flares over the past day kept solar activity at high levels. Between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today we saw the sun produce a total of 15 flares: seven Ms and eight C flares. The largest was an M3.3 flare at 20:51 UTC on October 2 from AR3842. An R1 (minor) radio blackout affected an area in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. Active regions AR3841 and AR3842 share the honors as lead flare producers with six flares each. This is the list of the M flares:
M3.2 at 13:38 UTC on October 2 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
M1.4 at 20:15 UTC on October 2 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout affecting an area in the middle of the Pacific Ocean west of the Galapagos.
M3.3 at 20:51 UTC on October 2 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout affecting an area in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
M1.1 at 2:34 UTC on October 3 from AR3841. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Papua Guinea.
M1.5 at 3:41 UTC on October 3 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Indonesia.
M1.5 at 8:28 UTC on October 3 from AR3841. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Indian Ocean, northeast of Madagascar.
M1.5 at 8:36 UTC on October 3 from AR3842. R1 (minor) radio blackout over Indian Ocean off the east coast of Africa.
The Earth-facing solar disk currently has 10 active regions. AR3842, the recent X flare-producer, is showing the potential for more big flaring with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. Three other active regions have a promising delta in their configurations: AR3841, AR3843, and AR3848. The rest of the sunspot regions show either alpha or beta configurations. There is a newcomer on the northeast limb (edge) labelled AR3848.
Sun news October 2: Huge X flare! Snap, Crackle, Pow
Pow! A massive X7.15 flare erupted at 22:20 UTC last night from sunspot region AR3842 in the solar southeast. The region had been churning and building energy over recent days, popping off several M flares … then it released this X flare, the 26th biggest flare recorded since 1996! Early analysis shows an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) that is fast but relatively small. It is currently expected to reach Earth on October 4–5, but we await more detailed analysis. In all the X flare excitement, don’t forget there is an annular solar eclipse today. Join us for a watch party from 12:15 p.m. CDT (17:15 UTC).
Last 24 hours: Solar activity remains high thanks to the X7.1 flare on October 1 at 22:20 UTC from sunspot region AR3842. An R3 radio blackout occurred over the Pacific Ocean northeast of Micronesia. The flare had an associated Type II radio burst, which is associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This provides a CME speed estimate of 1246 km/s, which is fast. We still await coronagraph imagery to fully analyze any CME activity, but there does appear to be a minor CME that will arrive around October 4. Region AR3842 is by far the largest and most complex of the ten regions currently on the Earth-facing sun, with a high-potential beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. It was the lead flare producer of the past day with nine flares: an X flare, three Ms and five C flares. M-class activity was also observed from AR3841, AR3843, and an unlabeled region in the northeast. Regions AR3841, AR3843, AR3844, and AR3848 all experienced moderate growth and are showing slightly complex beta-gamma and beta-delta regions. The rest of the regions are either stable or slightly decaying, with alpha or beta complexities. The sun produced 21 flares between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today: 1 X, 6 Ms, and 14 C flares. This list of X and M flares is:
M1.0 on October 1 at 14:52 from AR3843, R1 radio blackout over the north of Brazil.
M1.5 on October 1 at 19:17 from AR3842, R1 radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean off the southwest shore of Galapagos.
X7.1 on October 1 at 22:20 from AR3842, R3 radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean northeast of Micronesia.
M1.1 on October 1 at 01:52 from AR3842, R1 radio blackout over the Solomon Sea.
M1.3 on October 1 at 02:39 from AR3841, R1 radio blackout over Papua New Guinea.
M3.6 on October 2 at 05:38 from AR3842, R1 radio blackout over the Indian Sea off the west coast of Sumatra.
M1.1 on October 2 at 06:24 from the NE, R1 radio blackout over the Indian Ocean east of the Maldives.
Large-scale eruption associated with the X7.15 flare. Not surprising as almost all the >X3 flares at least show some CME-related signatures. I am glad the venue of the Space Climate 9 conference (https://t.co/DQbjNIN8Gc) offers nice connectivity and power (for each seat!). pic.twitter.com/kcBYAfjdGW
— Halo CME (@halocme) October 2, 2024
The M2M model of this CME is still preliminary and subject to change, but this does not look as significant as one may expect from an X7.1 flare… just goes to show that a major solar flare does not always equal a major CME.
Impact estimated for 2024-10-05 at 3:00 UTC. pic.twitter.com/TtmDKOmoj7
— Vincent Ledvina (@Vincent_Ledvina) October 2, 2024
Sun news October 1: Flares and filaments raise activity
After a lull in solar activity, the sun has kicked it up a notch. We’ve seen a surge of activity over the past day, with an M7.7 flare and a lot of fiery filaments – ropes of solar material and magnetic fields – across the solar disk. Many of these filaments erupted into space, although none were fired our way. Several filaments hanging over the limb (edge) of the sun, which we call prominences, appear to be ready to erupt too. We’ll keep an eye on those, so stay tuned for more sun news.
Last 24 hours: Over the past day, sun activity was high, with an M7.7 flare fired at 23:59 UTC on September 30 by AR3842. An R1 radio blackout over Micronesia followed. The sun produced 16 flares between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today: 1 M and 15 C flares. AR3842 has maintained its high-potential beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. All other regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic complexities. The Earth-facing sun currently has nine sunspot regions.