Sun news: Two bursts of sun-stuff heading to Earth

Sun news October 2: Two bursts of sun-stuff heading to Earth

Today’s top story: Two blobs of solar stuff — or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) — are heading our way at Earth. The first is expected to arrive later today, likely disturbing Earth’s magnetic field up to G1 (minor) geomagnetic levels. That could trigger auroral displays at high latitudes, especially now we’re in an aurora season. And the show may be extended through the weekend. Tomorrow, a stream of fast solar wind coming from a large coronal hole might continue stirring space weather at Earth. And adding to all this, a second CME might deliver a weak glancing blow to us on October 4. Good luck and clear skies, aurora chasers!

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC October 1 – 11 UTC October 2)

Flare activity: Solar activity increased from very low to low levels over the past 24 hours. Observers registered five flares in total: a C-class (common) event and four B-class (weak) flares.

• Strongest flare: A C1.5 flare by active region AR4545 in the northeast. It peaked at 21:37 UTC on October 1.
• Lead flare producer:  Active region AR4535 reached the top position, producing three flares during this period. The sparks were three B-class (weak) flares.

Sunspot regions: Today the sun continued showing two numbered sunspot regions, but one is a newcomer in the northeast that’s been producing C and B flares. Finally it received an official number: AR4545.

• AR4535 (alpha magnetic complexity): This region is now at the very edge of the northwest solar horizon and is soon to depart to the far side of our star. This position makes it difficult to analyze, but it appears to have lost its gamma complexity and now shows a simple alpha setup. But it produced three B flares before departing.
• AR4544: This region decayed to only plage and remained inactive.
• AR4545 (beta): This active region that has been blasting flares the whole week finally got numbered and produced today’s only C flare.

Blasts from the sun? The arrival of two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is anticipated over the next few days. Other than that, no Earth-bound CMEs were registered during the period.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds averaged low, at background levels. A coronal hole high-speed stream from a large coronal hole is on its way. Space weather conditions are expected to change in the next couple of days.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) stayed weak during the period. Meanwhile, the north-south component (Bz) kept shifting from northward to southward for the entire period. The strongest peaks were northward.

Earth’s magnetic field: Geomagnetic activity increased to quiet levels during this period, starting to show some action. The Kp index ranged from 0 to 2. At the time of this report, it sits at level 2.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast: Forecasters expect continued low activity over the weekend. The C-class flare probability remains at 40% today. Meanwhile, the chance of M-class (moderate) activity continues at 10%.

Geomagnetic activity forecast:

• October 2: Quiet conditions are anticipated during the first half of today, and unsettled to active conditions by midday with the arrival of the sun-stuff the sun hurled out on September 28. Active periods may reach G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Heads up, aurora chasers!
• October 3: Active conditions may continue as fast solar wind from the heart-shaped coronal hole arrives. G1 storm levels are possible.
• October 4: The CME from AR4535’s C8.6 flare may deliver a weak glancing blow, keeping conditions unsettled to active.

Sun news October 1: Heart-shaped coronal hole facing Earth?

Today’s sun brings something of a Rorschach test. What does that central coronal hole look like to you? Some members of our team see a heart … and others see a devilish face! Whatever it looks like, it’s sending fast solar wind straight at Earth. This should disturb our magnetic field from Saturday. And that’s not all. First, a chunk of solar stuff — or coronal mass ejection (CME) — from the September 28 eruption should reach us tomorrow. Then a CME from yesterday’s C8.6 flare may deliver a weak glancing blow on October 4. All together, these could create promising conditions for auroras over the next few nights. So keep watching the sky, especially at high latitudes.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC September 30 – 11 UTC October 1)

Flare activity: Solar activity dropped even lower, to very low levels, during the past 24 hours. Observers registered just one flare: a B-class (weak) event.

• Strongest flare: The period’s only flare, a B5.0, came from an incoming, as-yet-unnumbered region in the northeast. It peaked at 2:50 UTC on October 1.
• Lead flare producer: With only one flare, there was only one producer: that unnumbered newcomer in the northeast quadrant.

Sunspot regions: Today the sun continued showing two numbered sunspot regions. Meanwhile, the northeast region producing B flares hasn’t received an official number yet.

• AR4535 (beta-gamma magnetic complexity): Yesterday, this region produced an almost M-class flare. During this period, however, it produced no flares.
• AR4544 (beta): This region showed growth. Still, it stayed inactive.

Blasts from the sun? Specialists have confirmed the CME that AR4535 hurled into space during the C8.6 event. They anticipate a weak glancing blow at Earth, with arrival expected on October 4.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds stayed low, at background levels, as the previous coronal hole high-speed stream waned. However, a large new coronal hole now sits at the center of the Earth-facing disk. Its fast solar wind may start reaching us in a couple of days.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The total interplanetary magnetic field stayed weak during the period. At the time of this writing, though, it peaked at moderate levels. Meanwhile, the north-south component (Bz) pointed mostly northward for the entire period, with only a couple of very faint southward peaks.

Earth’s magnetic field: Geomagnetic activity stayed at very quiet levels during this period. The Kp index again ranged from 0 to 1. At the time of this report, it sits slightly above level 0.

Sun news September 30: Near-M flare! Sun waking up?

Our star surprised us again over the past day. This time the sun’s activity lull was broken by a near-M flare from sunspot region AR4535. The blast, a fiery C8.6, peaked at 2:46 UTC on September 30. We can clearly see a huge chunk of solar stuff was sent to space by this eruption. Modeling and analysis is underway to see if this blast could be heading to Earth. We have been observing this sunspot region, AR4535, since it developed a gamma magnetic complexity, and it’s now showing an even-more-promising beta-gamma configuration. A spark like this is what we have all have been expecting from this region. Is this AR4535 — and the sun — waking up?

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC September 29 – 11 UTC September 30)

Flare activity: Solar activity continued at low levels during the past 24 hours, but the near-M flare increased flare activity almost to moderate levels. We have not seen an actual M flare since September 5. Observers registered 5 flares in total: 3 C-class (common) and 2 B-class (weak).

• Strongest flare: A C8.6 from AR4535, peaking at 2:46 UTC on September 30.
• Lead flare producer: There is a newcomer in the northeast that dominated, firing three of the five flares: two Cs and one B flare.

Sunspot regions: Today our sun shows two numbered sunspot regions. A newcomer in the southwest received its official number during this period: AR4544. But the sunspot region producing C and B flares in the northeast hasn’t received an official number yet.

• AR4535 (beta-gamma magnetic complexity): This region surprised with an almost-M flare during the period.
• AR4544 (beta): Newcomer numbered during this period. Remained inactive.

Blasts from the sun? All eyes concentrated on the C8.6 flare by AR4535 this morning. An imminent coronal mass ejection (CME) may be confirmed. For now specialists are running modeling and analysis to determine if there is an Earth-directed component from this event.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds held at low at background levels as the coronal hole high-speed stream waned.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The total interplanetary magnetic field stayed weak but we saw some moderate peaks during the period. Meanwhile, once again, the north-south component (Bz) pointed mostly southward for the entire period.

Earth’s magnetic field: Geomagnetic activity continued at very quiet levels during this period. Kp index ranged from 0 to 1. At the time of this report, the Kp index sits at level 1.

Sun news September 29: Huge eruption sends blob to Earth!

Yesterday, amid a period of solar calm, the sun took us by surprise. A huge eruption blasted from a filament in the northwest. The filament began lifting plasma at around 13 UTC and ended in a powerful eruption. That fiery blast hurled plasma into space as a chunk of solar stuff, known as a coronal mass ejection (CME). Early analysis suggests part of it may head straight for Earth, with arrival estimated by October 2. If it does, it could disturb Earth’s magnetic field up to G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels. That could trigger auroras at northerly latitudes.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC September 28 – 11 UTC September 29)

Flare activity: Solar activity stayed low during the past 24 hours. Observers recorded 8 faint flares in total: 3 C-class (common) and 5 B-class (weak).

• Strongest flare: A C2.5 from AR4536, peaking at 15:19 UTC on September 28.
• Lead flare producer: AR4536 dominated, firing seven of the eight flares: 3 Cs and 4 Bs. In fact, it would have produced every flare of the period, if not for a single faint B flare from an as-yet-unnumbered newcomer.

Sunspot regions: Currently, the solar disk as seen from Earth shows only one numbered sunspot region, now that AR4536 has departed. Meanwhile, a newcomer in the northeast produced a B flare this morning. It hasn’t received an official number yet.

• AR4535 (beta-gamma): This region grew during the period and developed a gamma magnetic complexity. Even so, it produced no flares.
• AR4536 (beta): This region produced nearly every flare of the period. However, by the time of this writing, the sun’s rotation has carried it out of view over the west limb.

Blasts from the sun? The filament eruption described above produced a CME. Initial analysis suggests it carries an Earth-directed component. It could arrive on October 2 and bring conditions for a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm. Further modeling and analysis continue.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds held at low, background levels as the coronal hole high-speed stream waned.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) stayed weak. Meanwhile, the north-south component (Bz) pointed mostly southward for the entire period, with only a couple of weak northward peaks. At the time of this writing, it still points south.

Earth’s magnetic field: Geomagnetic activity stayed quiet (Kp 0 to 2) during the period. At the time of this report, the Kp index sits slightly above level 0.

Sun news September 28: Fast solar wind fades, quiet sun returns

The sun is taking a breather. Solar activity dropped to low levels over the past 24 hours, with only small C-class (common) flares popping off from a handful of modest sunspot regions. And conditions are quiet around Earth too, with fast solar wind from a coronal hole finally ceasing to disturb our planet’s magnetic field. Forecasters expect this tranquil stretch to continue for the next few days.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC September 27 – 11 UTC September 28)

Flare activity: Solar activity stayed low. Observers recorded several small C-class flares during the period.

• Strongest flares: We saw only C1-level flares, from AR4534, AR4535 and AR4536.
• Lead flare producer: AR4535 and AR4536 shared the low-level flaring. AR4534, sitting at the west limb, also contributed as it rotated out of view.

Sunspot regions: SWPC lists three numbered active regions. The SIDC counts five groups on the disk, though some are decaying or about to rotate off the west limb.

• AR4534: This region fired the strongest recent flare, a C3.1. However, it now sits at or behind the west limb. So its Earth-facing influence is effectively over.
• AR4535 (beta): This is the most notable region left near the center of the disk. Forecasters noted additional spot development during the period. Still, its simple beta configuration limits its flare potential.
• AR4536 (beta): This region is approaching the west limb. It produced small C-class flares but will soon rotate out of view.

Blasts from the sun? Analysts detected no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in available coronagraph imagery.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds gradually decreased to background conditions as the coronal hole high-speed stream waned.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) stayed weak. Meanwhile, the north-south component (Bz) fluctuated between northward and southward.

Earth’s magnetic field: Geomagnetic activity reached unsettled to active levels (Kp 3 to 4) early on, driven by the tail end of the coronal hole stream. Conditions then calmed to mostly quiet (Kp 0 to 2). No geomagnetic storms occurred.

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Bottom line: Sun news October 2, 2026: The first of two blobs of sun-stuff heading to Earth is expected to arrive later today. It might trigger auroras at northerly latitudes.

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