Sun news: Large coronal hole facing Earth

Sun news October 9: Large coronal hole facing Earth

(11 UTC October 8 – 11 UTC October 9)

Today’s top story: The anticipated coronal mass ejection (CME) did arrive and unsettle Earth’s magnetic field yesterday, but disturbance didn’t reach the predicted G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm threshold. However, more disturbance could be on the way. A large coronal hole has just moved into view on our star, and it’s facing right at Earth – in what’s known as a geoeffective position – meaning the fast solar wind streaming from it should begin disturbing our magnetic field around October 11.

• Flare activity: Solar activity remained low, with a mix of C-class and B-class flares over the past 24 hours. A total of seven flares were recorded: two Cs and five Bs.
  • Strongest: C1.7 flare from AR4241 (northwest) at 5:17 UTC on October 9.
  • Other notable events included a C1.2 from AR4242 at 12:48 UTC, a B9.9 and B9.7 from AR4236 at 11:36 and 18:44 UTC, a B9.1 from an unnumbered region in the southeast at 20:03 UTC, and a B7.1 from AR4232 at 11:10 UTC.
  • Lead flare producer: AR4236 led the period with three B-class flares.
  • No M-class (moderate) or X-class (strong) flares occurred.
• Sunspot regions: The sun currently shows four numbered active regions on its Earth-facing side.
  • AR4236 (beta-gamma) rotated out of view and is now behind the western limb.
  • AR4232 (beta) also moved beyond the west limb and is no longer visible.
  • The remaining active regions on the Earth-facing side stayed small and stable, showing slow decay or little change. All exhibit simple alpha or beta magnetic configurations.
• Blasts from the sun: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the latest coronagraph imagery.
• Solar wind: Solar wind speeds averaged around 390 km/s during the period, peaking briefly at 890 km/s at 23:24 UTC on October 8 before decreasing to 395 km/s by 9 UTC on October 9. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) remained at moderate strength. The Bz component stayed southward through much of the first half of the period, then rotated northward around 21 UTC on October 8 and maintained that orientation through 11 UTC today.
• Earth’s magnetic field: Geomagnetic conditions ranged from quiet to active (Kp = 1–4). Activity decreased from Kp = 4 early in the period to nearly Kp = 0 by 11 UTC on October 9.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

• Flare activity forecast: Solar activity should remain low, with a 10% chance of M-class (R1–R2) flares. With AR4232 and AR4236 now on the far side of the sun and AR4241 producing only a C1.7 flare, overall activity is expected to stay subdued. The chance of a stronger (R3) event remains low (10%).
• Geomagnetic activity forecast:
  • Oct 9: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet. It should remain quiet to unsettled through the rest of the day.
  • Oct 10: Quiet conditions are expected to persist.
  • Oct 11: Geomagnetic activity may increase as fast solar wind from the large coronal hole begins to reach Earth.

Sun news October 8: Sun-stuff arrival could bring auroras today

(11 UTC October 7 – 11 UTC October 8)

A blast of sun-stuff, or a coronal mass ejection (CME), is expected to impact Earth’s magnetic field later today. Having been hurled into space by the sun on October 3-4, this blob of solar material could trigger G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storming and auroral displays at high latitudes tonight. Clear skies, aurora chasers!

• Flare activity: Sun activity remains at low levels with only C-class and B-class flares over the past 24 hours. We saw a total of six flares: four Cs and two Bs.
  • Strongest: C9.1 flare from AR4233 (northwest) at 20:07 UTC on October 7.
  • Other significant flares included a C5.6 from AR4236 at 11:29 UTC, a C1.9 from AR4232 at 4:37 UTC, a C1.0 from AR4242 at 5:15 UTC, a B8.2 from AR4247 at 17:52 UTC, and a B8.2 from an as-yet-unnumbered active region in the southeast at 13:31 UTC.
  • Lead flare producer: The six flares of the period were shared between six different active regions.
  • No M-class (moderate) or X-class flares occurred.
• Sunspot regions: Today the sun shows seven numbered active regions on the side we see from Earth.
  • AR4236 (beta-gamma) retained its gamma configuration, but produced only one C flare during our observation period.
  • AR4232 (beta) is soon to depart on the southwest horizon.
  • The rest of the active regions on the Earth-viewed solar disk stayed small and stable, showing slow decay or little change. All of them have alpha or beta configurations.
• Blasts from the sun: After modeling and analysis, the coronal mass ejection associated with the C5.1 flare from AR4233 at 20:37 UTC on October 6 is not heading for Earth.
  • Ejecta from the dramatic prominence in the southeast around 9 UTC on October 7 is also not Earthbound.
  • No additional Earth-directed CMEs were detected in recent coronagraph imagery.
• Solar wind: Solar wind speeds averaged around 400 km/s, with several peaks as high as 587 km/s. Speeds dropped to 399 km/s by 9 UTC on October 8. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rose slightly to moderate levels. The Bz component remained southward throughout the period and continued at that orientation by 11 UTC on October 8.
• Earth’s magnetic field: Geomagnetic conditions stayed quiet to unsettled with a couple of peaks at active disturbance (Kp = 1–4). A disturbance just above the Kp = 4 level was reported at 12 UTC on October 7. The threshold was reached for the second time at 5:36 UTC, and continues at this level at the time of this writing.

Sun news October 7: Stunning prominence fires out sun-stuff

(11 UTC October 6 – 11 UTC October 7)

Around 9 UTC this morning, we observed a beautiful erupting prominence over the sun’s southeast horizon. The event launched plasma out into space, and specialists are now working to establish if this plasma could impact our planet’s magnetic field. They’re also analysing another burst of sun-stuff – or coronal mass ejection (CME) – produced during a C5.1 flare at 20:37 UTC last night. Meanwhile, two other CMEs are expected to reach Earth over the next day, potentially triggering geomagnetic storms and auroras. Stay tuned.

• Flare activity: The sun produced seven C-class (common) flares and one B-class over the past 24 hours, keeping activity at a low level.
  • Strongest: C5.1 flare from AR4233 (northwest) at 20:37 UTC on October 6.
  • Other significant flares included a C2.4 from AR4233 at 21:21 UTC, a C2.1 from AR4233 at 21:04 UTC, a C1.7 from AR4232 at 12:31 UTC, a C1.5 from AR4242 at 15:21 UTC, and a C1.3 from AR4233 at 15:21 UTC.
  • Lead flare producer: AR4233 led the period with four C-class flares.
  • No M-class (moderate) or X-class flares occurred.
• Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk today hosts six numbered active regions.
  • AR4236 (beta-gamma) remains the largest and most magnetically complex region, showing a mixed-polarity configuration but no significant flaring.
  • AR4241 (beta) continued developing additional trailing sunspots and mild magnetic complexity.
  • AR4242 (beta) and AR4245 (beta) both showed slight growth.
  • The remaining regions stayed small and stable, showing slow decay or little change.
• Blasts from the sun: The C5.1 flare from AR4233 at 20:37 UTC on October 6 was associated with a coronal mass ejection. This is now under modeling to determine if any portion is Earth-directed.
  • Ejecta from the dramatic prominence in the southeast around 9 UTC on October 7 initially appears too far eastward for a direct Earth impact, but analysis is ongoing.
  • No additional Earth-directed CMEs were detected in recent coronagraph imagery.
  • Two earlier CMEs – one from an M-class flare on October 3 and another from a complex filament eruption on October 3–4 – remain en route, with low-confidence arrival estimates for October 7–8.
• Solar wind: Solar wind speeds continued to decline as Earth’s connection to a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) weakened. Speeds dropped from about 448 km/s to 375 km/s, settling near 395 km/s by 9 UTC on October 7. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rose slightly to moderate levels. The Bz component remained primarily southward throughout the period and continued at that orientation by 11 UTC on October 7.
• Earth’s magnetic field: Geomagnetic conditions stayed quiet to unsettled (Kp = 1–3), consistent with the waning influence of the coronal hole. At the time of this report, Kp = 3.

Sun news October 6: Solar wind slow, but sun-stuff on the way

(11 UTC October 5 – 11 UTC October 6)

After triggering geomagnetic storms at Earth last week, the influence of fast solar wind flowing from coronal holes continues to weaken. However, more geomagnetic disturbance could be imminent. A pair of slow-moving coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that launched on October 3–4 appear to be on course to reach Earth over the next couple of days, potentially sparking another round of geomagnetic activity around October 7–8.

• Flare activity: Solar activity stayed at low levels, with a total of 12 C-class (common) flares recorded over the past day.
  • The strongest was a C4.2 flare from newly numbered AR4244 (alpha complexity) at 1:10 UTC on October 6.
  • Other significant events included a C4.1 flare from AR4236 at 13:49 UTC, and several from AR4238 near the west limb (C2.1–C4.1 between 12:05–18:43 UTC).
  • Regions AR4242, AR4233, and AR4236 contributed smaller flares through the period, ranging from C1.9–C3.5.
  • No M- (moderate) or X-class flares occurred.
• Sunspot regions: Eight active regions currently dot the Earth-facing solar disk.
  • AR4232 (beta) and AR4236 (beta-gamma) remain the largest and most magnetically complex. These regions continue to be linked, with minor sunspot development between them.
  • AR4241 developed additional trailing spots and mild magnetic complexity.
  • AR4244 (alpha) rotated further into view but remained quiet, aside from its single C4.2 flare.
  • The remaining regions were small and stable, showing slow decay or little change.
• Blasts from the sun: A filament eruption in the southeast began around 20:00 UTC on October 5 and was still ongoing at the time of reporting.
  • No new Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the latest coronagraph imagery.
  • Two earlier CMEs – one from an M-class flare on October 3 and another from a complex filament eruption on October 3–4 – remain en route, with low-confidence arrival estimates for October 6–8.
• Solar wind: Solar wind speeds continued to decline as Earth’s connection to the positive-polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) weakened. Speeds decreased from about 550 km/s to 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) stayed weak, with no significant southward Bz intervals observed.
• Earth’s magnetic field: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet to unsettled (Kp = 1–3), consistent with the weakening coronal hole influence. Minor storm intervals (G1) remain possible once CME effects begin to arrive.

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Bottom line: Sun news for October 9, 2025: A large coronal hole has moved into position to send its fast solar wind toward Earth.