Sun news: CME glancing blow still awaited

Sun news June 16: CME glancing blow still awaited

Today’s top story: The expected glancing blow from solar material that left the sun on June 12 is still possible. No major enhancements are anticipated. But it may disturb Earth’s magnetic field up to Kp 4 levels. Celestial geometry is not helping aurora watchers right now. We are just a few days from the June 2026 solstice. The angle at which Earth sits relative to the sun does not cooperate much for auroral displays this time of year. This effect is the opposite of what occurs during the equinoxes, when a favorable angle boosts aurora chances. On the solar front, the disk is going through a lull. Flare activity stayed at low levels. But it seems all the action is happening on the far side, just behind the northeast horizon. An incoming as-yet-unnumbered region dominated flare production, firing 6 of the period’s 9 flares. And AR4465 regained a gamma component, climbing back to beta-gamma complexity. But it produced no flares at all. Interesting times ahead. Stay tuned!

Past 24 hours of sun news

(11 UTC June 15 – 11 UTC June 16)

Flare activity

Over the past day, solar activity continued its lull at low levels. Only faint C-class (common) and B-class (weak) flares occurred. In total, the sun fired 9 flares: 6 C-class and 3 B-class.

• Strongest flare: C1.9 from an incoming as-yet-unnumbered active region in the northeast at 18:51 UTC on June 15.
• Lead flare producer: This northeast newcomer topped the list. It fired 6 of the 9 events, including the C1.9 peak. The remaining 3 flares came from other regions on the disk.

Sunspot regions

Currently, the Earth-facing solar disk shows 5 numbered active regions. AR4465 (beta-gamma) regained a gamma component during the period. The remaining sunspot regions are magnetically simple and relatively inactive.

Blasts from the sun?

Available coronagraph imagery showed no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the period. But forecasters continue to track the CME that departed the sun on June 12. It may deliver a glancing blow around June 16–17. A direct hit is not expected. But it could modestly enhance geomagnetic activity upon arrival. No G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms are expected from this event.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind

Solar wind speeds averaged moderate-low levels during the period. Meanwhile, the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) stayed weak. But it showed a slight increase at the end of the period. That uptick could be an early sign of the approaching CME material.

Bz and magnetic coupling

The Bz component kept shifting between north and south. But the strongest and longest peaks pointed northward. As a result, Earth’s magnetic shield stayed firmly closed. And aurora activity stayed suppressed.

Earth’s magnetic field

Over the past day, Earth’s magnetic field continued at quiet levels (Kp 1–2). No geomagnetic storm conditions occurred. Currently, the Kp index sits just above level 1.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast

Forecasters expect low levels to continue through June 17. M-class (moderate) flare chances saw a slight increase, climbing from 15% yesterday to 20% today. And X-class (strong) flares cannot be ruled out, sitting at just 1%.

AR4465 regained its beta-gamma setup. But it has stayed silent so far. The incoming northeast newcomer continues to be the most active producer on the disk. As it rotates further into view, it could change the flare outlook.

Geomagnetic activity forecast

• June 16: Active conditions (Kp up to 4) are possible as the anticipated glancing blow from the June 12 CME arrives. No G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm conditions (Kp 5) are expected. The solstice geometry works against aurora visibility at mid-latitudes.
• June 17: Expect quiet-to-unsettled conditions initially. But a new coronal hole high-speed stream may begin influencing Earth’s environment later in the day. Solar wind may become slightly elevated. And isolated unsettled-to-active intervals (Kp 3–4) are possible by late June 17.
• June 18: Expect a return to quiet-to-unsettled levels as geomagnetic influences fade.

Sun news June 15: Sun-stuff could give us a glancing blow tomorrow

Today’s top story: The sun has taken a breather over the past 24 hours, with only minor C-class (common) flares sputtering from a handful of small, magnetically simple sunspot regions. But solar activity from a few days ago could soon bring excitement to Earth. A glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the sun on June 12 could brush Earth tomorrow, potentially lifting geomagnetic activity to active levels.

Past 24 hours of sun news

(11 UTC June 14 – 11 UTC June 15)

Flare activity

Over the past day, solar activity remained at low levels. In total, the sun fired 7 flares: 5 C-class (common) and 2 B-class (weak). No M-class (moderate) or X-class events occurred.

• Strongest flare: C1.7 from AR4464 at 1:50 UTC on June 15.
• Lead flare producer: AR4464 topped the list with 4 of the 7 events. These included the C1.7.

Sunspot regions

The Earth-facing solar disk shows 4 numbered active regions. All are magnetically simple and relatively inactive.

Blasts from the sun?

Available coronagraph imagery showed no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections during the period. But forecasters continue tracking a CME that departed the sun on June 12. It may deliver a glancing blow around June 16–17. A direct hit is not expected. But it could modestly enhance geomagnetic activity upon arrival.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind

Solar wind speeds reflected the continued but waning influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Speeds gradually declined to normal levels over the period. Meanwhile, the total interplanetary magnetic field remained weak.

Bz and magnetic coupling

The Bz component showed no significant southward dips. It remained weak and variable. As a result, Earth’s magnetic shield stayed firmly closed. And aurora activity stayed suppressed.

Earth’s magnetic field

Over the past day, Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet (Kp 1–2). No geomagnetic storm conditions occurred.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast

Forecasters expect low levels to persist through June 17. C-class flares are very likely. And a slight chance (15%) exists for isolated M-class flares. But none of the four currently visible active regions possesses the complex magnetic configurations typically needed for significant eruptions. X-class flares are not expected (1% chance).

Geomagnetic activity forecast

• June 15: Expect quiet-to-unsettled conditions (Kp 1–3) as the coronal hole high-speed stream influence continues to fade. A small chance of a glancing CME arrival from the June 12 event exists. But a significant geomagnetic impact is unlikely today.
• June 16: Active conditions (Kp up to 4) are likely as the anticipated glancing blow from the June 12 CME arrives. A chance of isolated G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm conditions (Kp 5) exists. But that remains a low-probability scenario given the glancing geometry. If G1 levels are reached, aurora could become visible from Calgary, Edmonton, Oslo and Stockholm. But mid-June’s limited darkness hours at these latitudes will severely restrict viewing.
• June 17: Expect quiet-to-unsettled conditions initially. But a new coronal hole high-speed stream may begin influencing Earth’s environment later in the day. Solar wind may become slightly elevated. And isolated unsettled-to-active intervals (Kp 3–4) are possible by late June 17.

The sun in recent days

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Bottom line: Sun news for June 15, 2026: The sun is taking a breather, but a glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection could disturb Earth’s magnetic field tomorrow.

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