Sun news: Flare activity drops as our star takes a breather

Sun news July 29: Flare activity drops as our star takes a breather

Today’s top story: Our star is going through a lull. Its tally of six C flares over the past day was half of the previous day’s total. The main hope of an uptick in activity lies with active region AR4498, which fired all of the past day’s flares. Now located near the northeast horizon, it currently carries a modest beta configuration. As it moves into a more central location, a better analysis of its magnetic configuration will become possible. Let’s see how this sunspot group develops.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 28 – 11 UTC July 29)

Flare activity: Solar activity continued at low levels with faint flares. Our sun produced a total of six C flares.

• Strongest flare: A C1.9 from AR4498 peaking at 5:54 UTC on July 29.
• Lead flare producer: AR4498 reached the top of the list during this period. In fact, it produced all six C flares logged today.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk shows seven numbered active regions today. Among them is a newcomer that emerged in the southeast quadrant, now officially numbered AR4499. All of the sunspot regions on the Earth-viewed side of our sun show simpler alpha or beta configurations. As noted, all flare production of the period centered on AR4498. The rest stayed stable or in decay, with no flare production or significant behavior to report.

Blasts from the sun? Observers registered no new coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in available coronagraph imagery. However, the CME produced during the M3.2 (moderate) flare at 15:29 UTC on July 26 from AR4494 is on its way to Earth. Forecasters estimate arrival late on July 30. In addition, the filament eruption we saw at 6 UTC on July 27 sent a component our way. It may deliver a faint glancing blow, with an arrival time around August 1.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions averaged moderate-low levels during this period. Meanwhile, a large coronal hole now sits over the central meridian in the sun’s southern hemisphere. It lies too far south to squarely face us, but a portion of the fast solar wind it produces may start reaching Earth in the next few days.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field started the period at moderate levels. Then it slowly decreased to weak strength at the time of this writing. Meanwhile, the Bz component pointed southward for most of the period, with a few weak northward fluctuations. As always, a sustained south-oriented Bz component favors auroral displays.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet throughout the period, with the Kp index remaining at 1–3. At the end of our observation period, at 11 UTC on July 29, the Kp index sits just above level 1.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast: Forecasters expect solar activity to stay at low levels, with low chances of M-class flares through July 31. The chance of M flares is 30%. For now, AR4498 is the main player with its flaring activity. The rest of the sunspot regions on the Earth-viewed disk participate, but at a lower level. X-class (strong) flares are unlikely at 1%. However, forecasters cannot entirely rule them out.

Geomagnetic activity forecast:

• July 29: Quiet-to-unsettled geomagnetic conditions will likely persist.
• July 30: Unsettled-to-active conditions should return with the arrival of the CME the sun hurled out on July 26. This could combine with effects from a returning coronal hole’s high-speed solar wind stream.
• July 31: Unsettled-to-active conditions may continue as the CMEs from July 26 and 27 arrive, along with high-speed solar wind from the coronal hole. G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms are possible.

Sun news July 28: A synchronized double sun eruption

The sun returned to a low flare level over the past day, producing C-class (common) flares only. But our star still surprised us by blasting out two synchronized eruptions. The first started at around 6 UTC on July 27. It was a huge filament eruption, hurling tons of plasma into space. The event was centered over the sun’s central meridian, or midline, just north of where it meets the solar equator. Remarkably, as this filament eruption began, a huge prominence appeared on the sun’s northwest horizon. That signaled a similar event on the far side.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 27 – 11 UTC July 28)

Flare activity: Solar activity returned to low levels. Observers logged 12 flares, all C-class flares.

• Strongest flare: A C5.2 from AR4494 peaking at 3:18 UTC on July 28.
• Lead flare producer: AR4494 topped the list with 7 flares, including the strongest of the day, the C5.2.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk shows 5 numbered active regions today. Among them is a newcomer just over the northeast shoulder of our sun, now officially numbered AR4498.

• AR4494 (beta): This region continued as the most active on the solar disk. It lost its delta magnetic configuration. Nevertheless, it kept producing C-class flares during the period.
• AR4493 (beta): This region kept decaying and lost its gamma configuration during the period. It now shows a simpler beta configuration. It produced no flares.
• AR4495 (beta): This region showed no significant changes. It also produced no flaring activity.
• AR4496 (beta): This region continued to decay through the period. As it did yesterday, it produced an isolated low C-class flare.
• AR4498 (beta): This region received its number during the period. It still sits too close to the northeast horizon for a complete analysis. Even so, it produced a couple of C-class flares.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted a coronal mass ejection (CME) during the M3.2 (moderate) flare at 15:29 UTC on July 26 from AR4494. Initial analysis shows a chunk of solar stuff heading our way, with an arrival time late on July 30. Meanwhile, the filament eruption we report above hurled a separate CME into space. Analysis of its propagation path is ongoing.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions continued at low levels as the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream waned.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field started the period at weak levels. Then it increased to moderate strength starting at 15:30 UTC. Meanwhile, the Bz component fluctuated mildly between north and south. That was insufficient to drive significant geomagnetic activity.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet throughout the period, with the Kp index remaining at 1–3.

Sun news July 27: Sun-stuff could reach Earth today

A blast of solar material that was launched from the sun on July 24 should give Earth a glancing blow later today. This impact could disturb our magnetic field, possibly triggering G1 (minor) or even G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storms. So aurora watchers in northern Scotland, Scandinavia and similar high-latitude locations should stay alert! Meanwhile, an M3.2 (moderate) flare from AR4494 yesterday afternoon showed signs of blasting more solar material into space. Confirmation remains pending; we’ll let you know in tomorrow’s sun update if this blast is confirmed and, if so, whether it could be on its way to Earth.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 26 – 11 UTC July 27)

Flare activity: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Observers logged 7 flares: 2 M-class flares and 5 C-class (common) flares.

• Strongest flare: An M3.2 from AR4494 peaking at 15:28 UTC on July 26. This event triggered an R1 (minor) radio blackout, briefly affecting high-frequency communications over the Americas and the Atlantic Ocean.
• Second M-class flare: An M1.0 from AR4494 at 2:32 UTC on July 27. It produced an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the western Pacific and East Asia.
• Lead flare producer: AR4494 topped the list. It fired 4 of the 7 flares, including both M-class events and two C-class flares.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk displayed at least 6 numbered active regions, with one new region numbered during the period.

• AR4494 (beta-delta): This region remained the most active on the disk. It maintained a weak delta magnetic configuration, which can produce significant flares. However, its spot area continued to decay overall. It produced both M-class flares during the period.
• AR4493 (beta-gamma): This region showed significant decay in its trailing spots as it approached the western horizon. Its magnetic complexity reduced from beta-gamma to beta. It produced several low C-class flares.
• AR4495 (beta): This region displayed decent growth during the period. It also contributed multiple low-level C-class flares. This region is one to watch for further development.
• AR4496 (beta): This region initially showed slight growth. Then it began to decay about halfway through the period. It produced isolated low C-class flaring.
• AR4497 (beta): This region received its number during the period. It stayed inactive and appears simple and stable for the time being.

Blasts from the sun? Observers detected two CMEs during the period. However, limited coronagraph imagery complicates the analysis.

• CME associated with the M3.2 flare (July 26, ~16:23 UTC): A coronal mass ejection appeared in coronagraph imagery beginning around 16:23 UTC on July 26. It originated from AR4494’s M3.2 flare. Given the near-central-disk location of the source region, an Earth-directed component seems likely. However, NOAA noted that no CME had been confirmed in coronagraph imagery as of its 00:30 UTC discussion. The UK Met Office likewise indicated analysis was still pending.
• Second CME (July 26, ~20:26 UTC): A separate CME appeared beginning around 20:26 UTC on July 26 from an unknown source region. Currently, forecasters predict no Earth impacts from this event.
• Earlier CME from July 24 (approaching Earth): NOAA and the UK Met Office both highlight a CME launched on July 24. They expect it to deliver a weak, glancing blow to Earth late on July 27. This is the primary driver for the geomagnetic activity forecast over the next 24–48 hours.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions continued to ease as the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream waned. Speeds steadily decreased to background levels over the period.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) stayed weak. Meanwhile, the Bz component fluctuated mildly between north and south. That was insufficient to drive significant geomagnetic activity.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet throughout the period, with the Kp index remaining at 0–2.

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Bottom line: Sun news July 29, 2026: The sun quieted to a lull, with AR4498 the sole flare producer. But incoming CMEs and a coronal hole could stir things up by July 30.

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