Sun news: Action increases with M flares and fast solar wind

Sun news October 13: Action increases with M flares and fast solar wind

(11 UTC October 12 – 11 UTC October 13)

Today’s top story:
Solar activity has jumped up to moderate levels with two M-class (moderate) flares from AR4246. The most powerful of these, an M2.8 fired at 8:55 UTC on October 13, hurled plasma into space and may have launched a coronal mass ejection (CME) partially toward Earth. Meanwhile, Earth remains under the influence of strong solar wind from a coronal hole, setting the stage for more active space weather in the coming days.

• Flare activity: The sun produced 27 flares over the past 24 hours – two M-class flares and 25 C-class (common) events – pushing solar activity to moderate.
  • Strongest: M2.8 flare from AR4246 (northwest) at 8:55 UTC on October 13. The event produced an R1 (minor) radio blackout over southern Africa near Madagascar.
  • Other notable M flare: M1.9 from AR4246 at 4:59 UTC, which produced an R1 radio blackout over Sumatra.
  • Additional strong C flares included C9.8 at 7:39 UTC and C9.3 at 0:36 UTC, both from AR4246, and a C6.4 from AR4248 at 0:13 UTC.
  • Lead flare producer: AR4246 dominated activity with over half of all flares, continuing to exhibit strong magnetic mixing and dynamic development.
  • No X-class (strong) flares were observed.
• Sunspot regions: Seven active regions are now visible across the sun’s Earth-facing disk.
  • AR4246 (northwest) grew in size and magnetic complexity (beta-gamma-delta). It produced both M-class flares and several high-end C-class flares.
  • AR4248 (northeast) also shows a beta-gamma-delta complexity and remains active, contributing multiple C flares.
  • AR4253 (southwest) remains small, stable and quiet.
  • The remaining regions are small or decaying, showing simple alpha or beta configurations.
  • A new region may emerge soon on the southeast limb, hinted at by brightening in extreme ultraviolet imagery.
• Blasts from the sun: The C9.6 flare from AR4246 at 13:50 UTC on October 12 produced a CME that’s now under analysis. Early modeling indicates a possible Earth-directed component, with a potential arrival near October 15.
  • No additional Earth-directed CMEs were detected in coronagraph imagery during this period.
• Solar wind: Solar wind conditions remain elevated, transitioning from a corotating interaction region (CIR) into a high-speed stream (HSS).
  • Speeds increased from ~500 km/s to a peak of ~750 km/s in the early UTC hours and remained strong between 650–700 km/s afterward.
  • The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) peaked at moderate levels before easing.
  • The Bz component was mostly northward but briefly dipped south, allowing bursts of geomagnetic activity.
  • Solar wind flow continues to originate from a coronal hole, keeping conditions turbulent.
• Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s geomagnetic field stayed active, reaching G1 (minor) storm levels on October 12 between 18:00–21:00 UTC before easing slightly.
  • During this interval, the Kp index reached 5, then dropped back to Kp = 4 by the end of the period.
  • Geomagnetic activity remains responsive to fluctuations in solar wind and Bz polarity.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

• Flare activity forecast: The sun’s activity should remain at low-to-moderate levels, with a 40% chance for additional M-class (R1–R2) flares, most likely from AR4246 or AR4248. The chance of a stronger (R3) X-class event remains low (5%).
• Geomagnetic activity forecast: Earth continues to ride through the fast solar wind stream. Aurora watchers at higher latitudes should stay alert for another night of bright skies.
  • Oct 13: Unsettled-to-active levels expected. Continued chances for G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm intervals.
  • Oct 14: Conditions should ease to quiet or unsettled as the coronal hole influence wanes.
  • Oct 15: A faint CME from October 11 may deliver a glancing blow, briefly enhancing geomagnetic activity.

The sun in recent days

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Bottom line: Sun news for October 13, 2025: The sun fired two M flares over the past day, while Earth continued to feel the rush of fast solar wind.

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