Rapid temperature rise for Middle East and North Africa?

• Some of the hottest countries in the world are in North Africa and the Middle East.
• These countries have already exceeded the 1.5-degree-Celsius warming limit, as outlined in the Paris agreement. But parts of the Middle East and North Africa have already exceeded 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius.
• These regions could experience even warmer temperatures, perhaps a rise of up to 9 degrees Celsius (16 F), in this century. That’s according to a new study published November 21, 2024.

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AGU published this original story on November 21, 2024. Edits by EarthSky.

Predictions for a rapid temperature rise

The Middle East and North Africa, which already include some of the hottest and driest spots on Earth, are undergoing accelerated climate change and will reach warming thresholds two to three decades earlier than the rest of the world. That’s according to a new study published on November 21, 2024, in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. By 2100, parts of the Arabian Peninsula could experience up to 9 degrees Celsius (16.2 F) of warming.

The region, which already has record-breaking summer temperatures, is currently close to exceeding 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F) of warming on average compared to preindustrial temperatures. Additional warming in the region could make some areas uninhabitable without adaptation measures.

Abdul Malik, a climate scientist at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and the study’s lead author, said:

When we talk about the Paris Agreement, we say that we should try to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius [2.7 F], and that we should not exceed 2 degrees Celsius [3.6 F]. But in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, warming has already surpassed 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius.

Why is 1.5 degrees Celsius the target?

Why do we compare temperatures now to the preindustrial level? This is the level discussed in the Paris Agreement. In the Paris Agreement, 196 parties agreed to limit temperature increases to well below 2 C above preindustrial levels and to aim for 1.5 C. So why is 2 C the magic number? As Maria Ivanova at Northeastern University explained:

At 2 degrees we see dramatic alterations to the ability of the Earth’s system to maintain the conditions that allow for human life and indeed other species’ life.

Modeling a rapidly warming region

The Middle East and North Africa are predominantly desert ecosystems. Most of the population lives in coastal areas. Predictions from previous climate models have both over- and under-estimated warming in the region. So a more nuanced understanding of warming across the region has eluded scientists.

In this study, the researchers used CMIP5 and CMIP6 models to analyze the Middle East and North Africa at high spatial resolution (81 square kilometers, or approximately 30 square miles) and understand warming in the region in more detail. Malik said:

Although previous studies have shown that the region is warming much faster than other areas, we have shown that the warming rate is not consistent across the region. And this warming rate could vary between 1.5 to 3.5 times faster than the global average.

The rapid rate means that the Middle East and North Africa could reach 3 and 4 degrees Celsius of warming (5.4 and 7.2 F) nearly three decades earlier than most of the globe. That warming will be especially rapid in inland areas of the Arabian Peninsula.

The Middle East and North Africa already include some of the hottest countries on the planet. Hotspots will grow over inland Saudi Arabia, Mauritania, Iran’s Elburz Mountains and Algeria. That’s according to new research in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Video via Abdul Malik.

A hot region gets hotter

The Middle East and North Africa include some of the hottest regions on the planet … and the researchers predict continued dramatic warming. The central Arabian Peninsula is already warming up to three times faster than the rest of the world, the study found. That rate is on par with warming in the Arctic.

By 2100, the Arabian Peninsula could warm on average by 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 F) under low emission scenarios, and by 7.6 degrees Celsius (13.7 F) under high emission scenarios.

That’s because the Middle East and North Africa’s dry deserts can’t easily cool down through soil moisture evaporation. In contrast, their humid equatorial counterparts elsewhere on the globe do have this ability.

Georgiy Stenchikov, a retired climate scientist and one of the study’s co-authors, said:

Desert regions warm almost as fast as polar regions, and they have much higher temperatures. So the temperature threshold is reached much faster than in polar regions.

Because of coastal cooling, heavily populated areas along the southern and west coasts of the Arabian Peninsula, including Oman, are not currently warming as fast as inland areas and the peninsula’s east coast.

Warming rates are not consistent across the seasons. The researchers found summer hotspots over the central Arabian Peninsula, including the populous Riyadh Province, and Algeria; and winter hotspots over Mauritania and Iran’s Elburz Mountains.

Adapting to a rapid temperature rise

If the world meets low-emissions targets, the rate of warming in the Middle East and North Africa could slow by up to 38%. Individual cities could also try to adapt to the extreme heat through urban greening and architectural solutions. Stenchikov said:

Adaptation will be necessary, and these adaptation measures could be tested and developed in the Middle East and North Africa. Global warming is a global problem, so you cannot prevent it in just one place. But you can develop artificial environments in regions with high populations.

Bottom line: A new study predicts that inland areas of North Africa and the Middle East could experience a rapid temperature rise of up to 9 degrees Celsius (16 F) in the coming years.

Source: Accelerated Historical and Future Warming in the Middle East and North Africa

Via AGU

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