Sun news: Auroras tonight? Sun-stuff and solar wind incoming

Sun news October 13: Auroras tonight? Sun-stuff and solar wind incoming

Today’s top story: Fast solar wind is currently streaming to Earth from a coronal hole, or an area of lower density in the sun’s atmosphere. When this stream arrives today, it’s expected to disturb our planet’s geomagnetic field to G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels. And conditions could escalate to G2 (moderate) levels after a burst of sun-stuff — a coronal mass ejection (CME) — gives Earth an anticipated glancing blow later today. Together, these effects could combine to trigger auroras tonight at northerly latitudes.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC October 12 – 11 UTC October 13)

Flare activity: Solar activity continued at low levels. Observers recorded 5 flares during the period: 4 C-class (common) and 1 B-class (weak).

• Strongest flare: A C1.2 flare from AR4549, peaking at 3:40 UTC on October 13.
• Other notable flares: Three C1s occurred during the period. The first one from AR4549 peaking at 19:16 UTC, the second from AR4554 at 20:39 UTC and the third from AR4549 again, peaking at 23:53. The three flares were produced on October 12.
• Lead flare producer: AR4549 was on top of the list with three C-class flares.

Sunspot regions: Currently three numbered sunspot regions populate the visible disk.

• AR4548 (alpha): This region decayed to a simpler alpha configuration and didn’t produce any flares.
• AR4551 (beta): This region lost its gamma complexity during this period. It remained stable and did not produce flares.
• AR4554 (beta): Having been recently numbered, this region rapidly grew to a beta configuration and became the lead flare producer.

Blasts from the sun? No new Earth-directed CMEs registered during the past 24 hours. A couple of filament eruptions were observed. They both came from the same area in the southeast quadrant. Plasma could be seen hurled into space during the events. The first one at around 22 UTC on October 11 and the second at around 4:30 UTC on October 12. Initial analysis suggests the two events are ahead of Earth’s direction. However, a minor glancing blow on October 14 may bring a slight disturbance on Earth’s magnetic field.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind averaged at moderate levels during the period, mainly driven by fast solar wind from a coronal hole.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) started at weak levels but there was a peak at 0 UTC on October 13 that rose to strong levels. It lasted for about an hour to return to moderate strength. The Bz component pointed northward throughout, limiting geomagnetic coupling.

Earth’s magnetic field: The geomagnetic field showed from low to unsettled levels during the period (Kp 1 – 3). At the time of this report the Kp index sits at level 2.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast: Forecasters expect solar activity to stay at low levels overall. Chances for M-class flares are reduced to 35% today compared to 55% yesterday. A slight chance (5%) remains for X-class flares. The drop in activity reflects AR4549’s departure from the Earth-viewed solar disk.

Geomagnetic activity forecast:

• October 13: Active conditions expected with the arrival of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream. G1 (minor) storming levels anticipated. Storming levels could escalate to G2 (moderate) levels with the possible effects of the October 10 CME.
• October 14: G1 (minor) storming likely as the coronal hole stream persists. Active levels may receive a boost with the arrival of CMEs from October 11 and 12.
• October 15: Quiet to unsettled levels (Kp 2-3) to return as the coronal hole’s and CMEs influence tapers off.

Sun news October 12: Sun-stuff and solar wind on the way

A fast blob of sun-stuff — a coronal mass ejection (CME) — could give Earth a glancing blow later today. The sun fired this CME our way during an M6.4 (moderate) flare on Saturday. If it does reach us, it could add to the effects of high-speed solar wind currently streaming to us from a coronal hole. Together, these effects could disturb our magnetic field to G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels. In fact, the U.K. Met Office sees a chance of G2 (moderate) or even G3 (strong) levels. Aurora-watchers across the northern U.K, northern U.S. states, southern New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes should stay alert!

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC October 11 – 11 UTC October 12)

Flare activity: Solar activity stayed at low levels. Observers recorded 8 flares during the period: 6 C-class (common) and 2 B-class (weak).

• Strongest flare: A C1.2 from AR4545, peaking at 17:01 UTC on October 11.
• Other notable flares: AR4549 contributed a C1.1, peaking at 22:37 UTC on October 11.
• Lead flare producer: AR4545 led the list with three C-class flares.

Sunspot regions: Five numbered sunspot regions populated the visible disk, including one newcomer. A sixth, AR4552, decayed to plage.

• AR4549 (beta-delta): This region remained the most magnetically complex on the disk. However, it’s getting very close to the western horizon, which is making classification increasingly difficult. It produced only one minor C flare during the period. Still, forecasters consider it the main source of possible M-class and X-class (strong) flares in the days ahead.
• AR4545 (beta): This region saw new magnetic field emergence during the period. It was also the most prolific flare producer, firing the strongest flare (C1.2) plus two other C-class events. Even so, analysts noted overall decay in the region.
• AR4551 (beta-gamma): This region grew in both size and magnetic complexity. It’s now the largest region on the disk. Despite that growth, it stayed mostly quiet, producing only B-class flares during this window.

Blasts from the sun? Observers detected no new Earth-directed CMEs during the past 24 hours. However, the October 10 CME from AR4549’s M6.4 flare remains of interest.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind steadily decreased to a little above normal, reflecting the fading effects of the October 10 CME arrivals.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) started strong and slowly decreased to moderate, before dropping sharply to near-normal levels. The Bz component pointed northward throughout, limiting geomagnetic coupling.

Earth’s magnetic field: The geomagnetic field started the period at active levels (Kp 4). Conditions then eased to quiet as CME effects waned.

The sun in recent days

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Bottom line: Sun news, October 13, 2026: Fast solar wind from a coronal hole and a burst of sun-stuff might trigger G2 storms and auroras tonight.

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