Sun news: Near M-flare while waiting for sun-stuff to arrive

Sun news June 29: A near M-flare while waiting for CME

Today’s top story: The sun maintained a steady drumbeat of moderate activity over the past 24 hours. We saw 16 C flares, including one that was nearly an M (moderate) flare: a C9.5 (common) from sunspot region AR4475, fired at 21:17 UTC last night. Meanwhile at Earth, we’re awaiting the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that was fired late on Friday. This burst of sun-stuff is expected to reach us tomorrow, bringing the potential for G1–G2 (minor to moderate) geomagnetic storms. Plus, a second slower CME from June 27 may follow late on July 1 or into July 2, potentially extending unsettled conditions and keeping aurora watchers on alert.

Past 24 hours of sun news

(11 UTC June 28 – 11 UTC June 29)

Flare activity

Over the past day, solar activity held at low to moderate levels. In total, the sun fired 16 C-class flares.

• Strongest flare: C9.5 from AR4475, peaking at 21:17 UTC on June 28.
• Other notable flares: A C8.7 from AR4479 at 21:55 UTC on June 28, a C8.1 from AR4479 at 8:06 UTC on June 29 and a C6.6 from AR4479 at 7:40 UTC on June 29.
• Lead flare producer: AR4479 topped the list with 9 of the 16 flares, including three above C5.0. Meanwhile, AR4478 contributed 3 flares, AR4477 added 2 low-level events and AR4475 contributed 2 flares including the period’s strongest.

Sunspot regions

The Earth-facing solar disk shows at least 6 numbered active regions. Three carry notable magnetic complexity.

AR4478 (beta-gamma-delta) remains the most magnetically complex region on the disk. It showed slight growth in its intermediate area. And it remains capable of producing significant flares as it moves toward the center of the solar disk.

AR4479 (beta) was the most active flare producer by far, generating 9 C-class flares. And it continues to develop, acquiring additional magnetic complexity over the past day.

AR4475 (beta-gamma) continues to decline slowly, but it still produced the period’s strongest flare.

AR4477 contributed 2 low-level C-class flares. The remaining regions on the disk were mostly unchanged, showing simple magnetic configurations and remaining inactive or in gradual decline.

Blasts from the sun?

Several CMEs were observed during the period, but none of the newly detected events carry a significant Earth-directed component. The focus remains on two earlier CMEs now en route to Earth.

June 26 CME: the main event. This eruption, directed mainly southward but with an Earth-directed component, is expected to arrive tomorrow morning and trigger a G1 (minor) or G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm.

June 27 CME: This faint, slow CME from the area around AR4475 is harder to model. A very low-confidence estimated arrival sits around 8:00 UTC on July 1. Kp estimates range from 2 to 4, suggesting quiet-to-unsettled conditions if it arrives.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind

Solar wind conditions reflected the continued weakening of a coronal hole’s high-speed stream. Speeds decreased to normal levels by the end of the period. Meanwhile, the total interplanetary magnetic field stayed weak.

Bz and magnetic coupling

The Bz component showed no sustained southward excursions. As a result, Earth’s magnetic shield stayed firmly closed and aurora potential remained limited. But the arriving CME on June 30 could change that picture dramatically.

Earth’s magnetic field

Over the past day, Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet (Kp 1–2). No geomagnetic storm conditions occurred. But that quiet is about to end. The June 26 CME is on its way.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast

Forecasters expect predominantly low levels to continue. But the chance for M-class flares sits at 50% or greater. The primary candidates are AR4475, AR4478 and AR4479. And a slight chance (10%) for an X-class (strong) event remains, mainly from AR4478 and its beta-gamma-delta configuration. As AR4475 continues rotating westward, its chance to send sun-stuff our way will gradually diminish.

Geomagnetic activity forecast

• June 29: Expect mostly quiet conditions as the coronal hole stream continues to fade. A slight possibility remains for a glancing blow from a June 22 CME early in the day. Conditions should return toward background levels for most of the day. But enhanced activity may begin developing late on June 29 as the June 26 CME draws closer. Kp 1–3 for most of the day, rising to Kp 3–4 by late evening.
• June 30: The main event. Expect unsettled-to-active conditions with isolated G1 (minor) storm periods likely and a chance of G2 (moderate) conditions from the arriving June 26 CME. Auroras may reach Edinburgh, Seattle, Minneapolis and across northern Scandinavia and Canada.
• July 1–2: Expect quiet-to-active conditions as the June 26 CME influence wanes. But the slow-moving June 27 CME may arrive late on July 1 or during July 2, potentially reinvigorating unsettled-to-active conditions. Coronal hole stream effects may also contribute to enhanced conditions around July 1.

The sun in recent days

Sun images from our community

More sun images from our community

We sometimes feature sun images obtained using hydrogen-alpha filters. Read why.

Bottom line: Sun news for June 29, 2026: AR4475 fired a C9.5 (common) flare last night, almost reaching the M (moderate) flare threshold. Meanwhile, a coronal mass ejection could bring auroras tomorrow.

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