Sun news: Sun-stuff could reach Earth tonight

Sun news July 13: Sun-stuff could reach Earth tonight

(11 UTC July 12 – 11 UTC July 13)

Today’s top story: Earth’s magnetic field is set for another round of disturbance. A burst of sun-stuff – or coronal mass ejection (CME) – fired from the sun on July 10 is edging closer. It could give our planet a glancing blow late today or early tomorrow. This comes after our geomagnetic field already reached G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels yesterday. That was caused by the combined punch of a waning coronal hole solar wind stream and the glancing arrival of a CME from July 9. And looking ahead, forecasters are keeping a close eye on up to four CMEs that could brush past Earth over the next several days. Stay tuned!

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: Solar activity held at low to moderate levels over the past day. Observers logged 8 flares: 4 C-class and 4 B-class events.

• Strongest flare: A C2.6 from AR4485 peaking at 13:46 UTC on July 12.
• Lead flare producer: AR4485 dominated once again, firing at least 6 of the 8 tracked flares, including all four C-class events. However, the region’s productivity should diminish rapidly as it rotates behind the western limb.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk displayed approximately 5 numbered active regions. However, the count is in flux as AR4485 departs around the west limb and a new spot emerges on the east.

• AR4485 (beta-gamma): The period’s most complex and active region has now reached the extreme western limb (edge). Its position makes analysis increasingly difficult. Even so, its beta-gamma magnetic configuration means it has the potential for M-class flares.
• New unnumbered region: A moderately sized sunspot has breached the southeastern limb and is now rotating into view. NOAA will assign a number once the region’s magnetic structure can be better assessed.
• The remaining numbered regions stayed mostly unchanged or showed signs of decay. None exhibited complex magnetic configurations or significant flare activity during the period.

Blasts from the sun? Forecasters tracked multiple CMEs during and around the reporting period. None of the newly observed events should directly impact Earth. Instead, the primary focus remains on previously launched CMEs still en route.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions reflected the waning influence of a coronal hole’s high-speed solar wind stream, combined with the July 9 CME’s glancing arrival. Speeds steadily decreased to near normal. Meanwhile, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) remained normal.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The Bz component spent much of the morning hours tilted southward. This configuration favors aurora because it opens Earth’s magnetic field to incoming solar wind energy. After midday, however, the Bz turned neutral to mostly northward, closing the door for auroral activity.

Earth’s magnetic field: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (minor) storm levels. The Kp index reached 4 (active) during the 9–12 UTC window on July 12, meeting the G1 threshold. Outside this interval, conditions stayed generally quiet to unsettled (Kp 1–3). By the end of the reporting period, the field had settled back to quiet levels.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast: We expect solar activity to remain at low levels, with a chance (25%) for M-class flares through July 13. The residual complexity and flare potential of AR4485 drives this outlook as it leaves over the western horizon. By July 14, AR4485 should have rotated far enough behind the limb to minimize most flare impacts on the Earth-facing disk. That will reduce M-class probability further.

A very low chance (5%) for X-class flares exists but is negligible. Meanwhile, forecasters will watch the new region emerging on the southeast limb closely. Early indications suggest a simple magnetic configuration, though. So it is unlikely to produce significant flaring in the near term.

Geomagnetic activity forecast:

• July 13: Expect quiet to unsettled conditions (Kp 1–3) early in the day as the combined CME and coronal hole high-speed stream effects continue to taper off. By late in the day, unsettled to active levels (Kp 3–4) are expected. In addition, a chance exists for an isolated period of G1 (minor) storm conditions, tied to the potential arrival of the July 10 CME. If G1 conditions materialize, aurora may appear over high-latitude locations such as northern Scotland, southern Alaska, and Iceland. However, short summer nights will significantly limit viewing opportunities at these latitudes.
• July 14: Unsettled to active levels (Kp 3–4) are possible, especially early in the day. CME effects from the July 10 event may persist. Moreover, the July 11 CME pair may arrive around 11–12 UTC. An isolated G1 (minor) storm period remains possible. Kp estimates from modeling suggest values of 2–3 for the July 11 CMEs. So any storm-level activity would depend on favorable Bz orientation. Conditions should gradually ease through the day.
• July 15: Expect a slow return toward near-background levels, bringing quiet to unsettled conditions (Kp 1–3) by mid to late in the day. However, possible glancing effects from the faster July 12 CMEs could briefly enhance conditions late on July 15 into July 16. Model Kp estimates of 2–3 suggest any impacts would be minor.

The sun in recent days

Earlier sun images

Sun images from our community

More sun images from our community

We sometimes feature sun images obtained using hydrogen-alpha filters. Read why.

Bottom line: Sun news July 13, 2026: A burst of sun-stuff fired on Friday could graze Earth late today. Yesterday’s geomagnetic storm might get an encore.

Submit your photos here.

View community photos here.