Sun news March 18, 2024: Big sunspot returned! Plus 2 M flares, CMEs coming
Today’s top news: AR3590 is back! We last saw it on the Earth-facing side of our star a couple of weeks ago, when it was the biggest sunspot region of Solar Cycle 25 so far. At that time, it also produced three X flares! It survived its passage to the far side of our star (from our earthly perspective). And now the sun’s rotation has carried it back into view. It has already produced one of two M flares over the past day. And it has a new number. It’s now AR3614. Plus, yesterday’s filament eruption sent two Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) toward Earth. They should bring active levels to Earth’s geomagnetic field with the possibility of a good auroral display, probably around the second half of March 20 … just in time for the equinox (which, as you may know, is aurora season). P.S. The big sun day is fast approaching; T-21 days until the total solar eclipse!
Last 24 hours: Over the past day, we had two M flares keeping sun activity moderate. An M 2.8 came at 3:21 UTC on March 18 from departing region AR3612 just over the sun’s western limb. It was followed by an M 1.0 at 4:06 UTC from the newly numbered region AR3614 (formerly AR3590). Will this region crank out the flares as it did on its previous visit? Stay tuned to find out. Otherwise, between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, the sun produced two M and 11 C flares. Both M flares caused temporary radio blackouts over Southeast Asia. The sun has six numbered active regions on its Earth-facing side.
Next 24 hours: The forecast is a 99% chance for C flares, a 30% chance for M flares, and a 5% chance for X flares.
Next expected CME: An exciting outcome from yesterday’s filament eruption is Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Shortly after the CME was visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery, the CME was seen to form two events. One CME moved to the southeast and one to the southwest with the first component expected to reach us late March 20 and the second one early March 21. This should bring active levels to the geomagnetic field with the possibility for G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming. This could be even higher given that we are near the March equinox, aurora season. Get those cameras out, aurora watchers!
Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s geomagnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on March 18). Quiet conditions are expected today and tomorrow, through the first half of March 20. Active periods and G1 (minor) storming are likely during the second half of March 20 with the arrival of the CMEs associated with the March 17 filament eruption. The proximity to the equinox may enhance the chance of a geomagnetic storm.
??Sun news Mar 18, 2024: A potpourri of activity, CMEs headed our way
??An exciting outcome from yesterday’s filament eruption is Earth-directed CMEs.
??This should bring the possibility for G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming.
?MORE at EarthSky: https://t.co/xD29wLfm4e pic.twitter.com/yrNTgZHzLv
— Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) March 18, 2024
Sun news March 17, 2024: It’s flare time
Sun activity is now moderate because we’ve seen substantially more flares over the last 24 hours. The sun went from two C flares the day before … to 14 C and two M flares over the past 24 hours. Most of the new flaring came from regions just over the sun’s eastern horizon. A few of the flares came from the north, the region we think is AR3590. That region reached a record size for Solar Cycle 25 and produced three X flares in the space of 24 hours, when we last saw it on the sun’s visible face a couple of weeks ago. But most of the excitement over the past day came from an unknown region in the sun’s southeast. This mystery area produced the two M flares and seven of the C flares. It doesn’t appear to correspond to any region from the previous solar rotation. When it comes into view on the sun’s visible face, assuming that it survives the next few days, it’ll be interesting to see how big and complex it is. The next question is: will AR3590, which will be renumbered, have as much oomph as it did the first time around? If so, it’ll be fun to watch! By the way, the solar disk also displayed some action with a fast filament eruption coming from the south-central disk at 3:12 UTC on March 16. The resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) looks to be largely southward-directed, but we must wait for additional analysis to determine if there’s an Earth-directed component. Stay tuned for more sun news. P.S. The big sun day is fast approaching; T-22 days until the total solar eclipse!
Last 24 hours: Sun activity is moderate. Between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, the sun produced two M and 14 C flares. The largest event was an M3.5 flare at 16:44 UTC on March 16 from an unseen sunspot region over the southeast limb (edge). This region produced the other M1.2 flare and seven of the C flares. Both M flares caused temporary radio blackouts over South America for the M3.5 flare and the Pacific for the M1.2 flare. The sun has six numbered active regions on its Earth-facing side.
??Sun news Mar 17, 2024: It’s flare time
?Flaring has picked up over the last 24 hours.
??Most of the excitement we have seen came from an unknown region in the SE.
?Will AR3590 have as much oomph?
?MORE at EarthSky: https://t.co/xD29wLfm4e pic.twitter.com/nfAq0hP5Vo
— Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) March 17, 2024
The sun in recent days
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Bottom line: Sun news for March 18, 2024. Sun activity is moderate with a great mixture of action. That big sunspot is back! The March 17 filament eruption sent two CMEs Earthward.