The current sunspot number progression starting from the last solar cycle (Solar Cycle 24) is shown in black. The prediction through the rest of the current cycle (Solar Cycle 25) is shown in red as of May 23, 2022. Notice the circled region. It shows we’re ahead of the predictions of sun activity. Plot via NOAA/ Space Weather Prediction Center.
May 23 sun activity update: Calm before a storm?
Sun activity continues to be low, with only small C-class flares over the past 24 hours. The current chance for more flaring is 99% for C-flares, 40% for M, and 5% for X. History tells us that this calm won’t last for long. We are now heading toward the peak of the current 11-year solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25. That peak is known as solar maximum. As the chart above shows, the current sunspot number continues to exceed the predicted number. This indicates that the coming solar maximum – predicted for around 2025 – will be larger than predicted for this 11-year period.
A larger maximum will mean more sunspots, larger sunspots and larger, more frequent solar activity. So the current calm doesn’t mean much. Overall, the sun is telling us it’s just a small calm before the next storm.
Meanwhile, last week’s big sunspot group – AR3014, largest sunspot region of this solar cycle so far – continues to decrease in size. But it still has the potential for more action.
Today’s sun activity with the most active regions labeled (1 UTC on May 23, 2022). Original image, without labels, via NASA SDO. The current chance for more flaring is 99% for C flares, 40% for M, and 5% for X. Today’s sun is posted by Armando Caussade. Why are east and west on the sun reversed?
A week of sun activity: May 12 to 19
A WEEK OF SUN! A four-panel look at SDO 304, 171, 193, and 131 angstrom wavelengths from May 12 to halfway through May 19. Flares, filament eruptions, coronal holes, and more. ???? pic.twitter.com/9oABOjaysO
We invite you all to send us your beautiful recent photos of sunspots and auroras. We love receiving your photos! To those of you who’ve already posted a photo to our community, thank you.
View at EarthSky Community Photos. | Roland Kueng in Wolfhausen, Zürich, Switzerland, captured this filtered view of the sun on May 21, 2022. He wrote: “Although a cloudy day I wanted to see the big sunspot [AR3014, biggest sunspot region of Solar Cycle 25 so far] immediately after reading your newsletter. The clouds give a nice structure over all but still doesn’t hide the solar spot. With good eyes one can find even samller spots left of the monster.” Thank you, Roland!View at EarthSky Community Photos. | Patricio León in Santiago, Chile, captured this filtered closeup of the sun on May 21, 2022, and wrote “Huge sunspot AR3014 has already crossed the central meridian of the sun, measures about 8.5 x 3.5 Earth diameters making it the biggest spot of the year so far and quite easy to be seen unaided eye with appropriate solar filter.” Thank you, Patricio!
Bottom line: As of May 23, 2022, the sun is still calm. But it’s likely a calm before a coming storm. Overall, the current solar cycle is ahead of predictions for sun activity.
C. Alex Young is a solar astrophysicist studying the Sun and space weather. Alex is passionate about sharing science with diverse audiences. This led him to start The Sun Today with his designer wife, Linda. First through Facebook and Twitter then adding an extensive website thesuntoday.org, the two work together to engage the public about the Sun and its role in our solar system. Alex led national engagement efforts for the 2017 total solar eclipse. He is the Associate Director for Science in the Heliophysics Science Division at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.
Raúl Cortés studied engineering at the Autonomous University of Nuevo León in Monterrey, Mexico, obtained a scholarship to continue his studies in Japan and after returning to Monterrey he got credits on MBA from the Graduate School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Faculty. He became a teacher at the University UANL teaching Math and Physics and dedicated the rest of his professional career to serve in engineering areas for USA, Japan and Germany based corporations. His passion for the skies go back to when he was a child, always intrigued about the stars and constellations and reading and researching about the matter. From 2010 on, he dedicated his attention to photographing the stars, constellations, the moon and the sun. Raúl's work on his photography has been published and posted on the ESC as well as in other platforms and has gained attention to be published by local Monterrey newspapers.
Michael Maimone is an editorial assistant for EarthSky and has always had a strong passion for communicating scientific complexity in a way just about anyone can understand. Michael graduated from Penn State University in 2019 with dual Bachelor of Science degrees in Planetary Science & Astronomy and Meteorology & Atmospheric Science. He has experience in radio astronomy research with the Green Bank Observatory and even as a mission operations specialist for NASA’s Mars rovers Curiosity and Perseverance. He is currently working towards a master’s degree in space operations from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.
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