Could the space station leak lead to ‘catastrophic failure’?

Space station leak could be ‘catastrophic’

In 2019, one of the modules on the International Space Station (ISS) sprang a leak. The leak is on a Russian portion of the space station – a transfer tunnel – called PrK. It separates a docking port from the rest of the module. Overall, the leak loses about 3.7 pounds (1.7 kilograms) of air per day. As a stopgap solution, astronauts have been sealing off the PrK when not in use. But how severe is the problem? According to Roscosmos, it’s safe, but according to NASA, it could lead to “the possibility of a catastrophic failure.”

On November 13, 2024, NASA held a meeting on the safety and operational readiness of the space station. In that meeting, former astronaut Bob Cabana, chair of the NASA International Space Station Advisory Committee, reported on a September 2024 discussion between NASA and Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, concerning the leak.

Jeff Foust, reporting for SpaceNews, wrote:

Cabana said at the committee meeting that there is no agreement between NASA and Roscosmos on the severity of the issue. ‘While the Russian team continues to search for and seal the leaks, it does not believe catastrophic disintegration of the PrK is realistic,’ he said. ‘NASA has expressed concerns about the structural integrity of the PrK and the possibility of a catastrophic failure.’

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Managing risks on the space station

Previously, NASA released a report on September 26, 2024, of its management of risks on the space station. As of now, the current plan is to keep the space station in good working order through 2030, with a deorbit in 2031.

The report said:

NASA and Roscosmos continue to work together to address structural issues with the Russian Service Module Transfer Tunnel. Cracks and air leaks in the tunnel are a top safety risk … both agencies are collaborating to investigate and mitigate the cracks and leaks; determine the root cause, which includes sharing sample metals, welds and Roscosmos investigation reports; and monitor the station for new leaks.

In February 2024 NASA identified an increase in the leak rate … Later, in May and June 2024, ISS Program and Roscosmos officials met to discuss heightened concerns with the increased leak rate. Subsequently, the ISS Program elevated the Service Module Transfer Tunnel leak risk to the highest level of risk in its risk management system. According to NASA, Roscosmos is confident they will be able to monitor and close the hatch to the Service Module prior to the leak rate reaching an untenable level. However, NASA and Roscosmos have not reached an agreement on the point at which the leak rate is untenable.

Although the root cause of the leak remains unknown, both agencies have narrowed their focus to internal and external welds. As of June 2024, there was no indication of other leaks on the station.

A disagreement over the leak

Currently, neither space agency is sure what caused the leak. Indeed, as Foust reported:

Russian engineers believe the cracks are likely caused by ‘high cyclic fatigue’ from micro-vibrations. NASA, by contrast, believes several factors are at play, including pressure and mechanical stress, residual stress, material properties of the module and environmental exposure.

In addition, Foust quoted Cabana as saying:

The Russians believe that continued operations are safe but they can’t prove to our satisfaction that they are, and the U.S. believes that it’s not safe but we can’t prove to the Russians’ satisfaction that that’s the case.

So, the space agencies are going to look to outside experts to identify the root cause of the problem and thus the best solution.

Bottom line: In 2019, the space station acquired a leak in a transfer tunnel. NASA said the space station leak could lead to a “catastrophic failure.”

Via SpaceNews

Via NASA’s Management to Risks to Sustaining ISS Operations through 2030