Multiday severe weather outbreak forecast for the Plains

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Multiday severe weather outbreak April 25-27

Meteorologists are calling for a powerful storm system to move across the Great Plains and Midwest of the U.S. this weekend, creating a multiday threat for severe weather on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Strong low-level winds, warm air and a strong cold front will create an environment capable of producing severe weather. The threat includes the possibility of damaging wind, large hail and even strong tornadoes. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has already outlined a level 3, or enhanced risk, area ahead of the severe weather threat.

Saturday’s forecast

More than 3 million people are under a level 3 enhanced risk threat for severe storms on Saturday as numerous storms are expected to become severe. These areas include Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma and Wichita, Kansas.

Large hail, isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are all possible. But as the storms continue into the evening, forecasters expect them to develop into a line of storms, sometimes called a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). This line of storms often causes damaging wind gusts of more than 58 miles per hour (93 kilometers per hour), but it can also produce tornadoes. Roughly 20% of tornadoes that form in the United States are QLCS tornadoes. They are typically weaker and shorter-lived than a tornado that forms from a supercell (a thunderstorm that has a strong, rotating updraft). But they can be just as dangerous because they more often occur at night.

Sunday’s forecast

By Sunday, the severe threat hasn’t shifted much. It will still be impacting the cities of Oklahoma City and Tulsa in Oklahoma and Wichita, Kansas, as well as surrounding areas. This region has a 30% probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point in the outlined area. (A 30% probability of severe weather roughly translates to a level 3 enhanced risk. But the Storm Prediction Center only uses the five-level convective outlooks for days 1 through 3, with day 1 being the current day.)

A 15% probability of severe weather, which would translate to a level 2 slight risk, stretches from north of Dallas, Texas, to just south of Lincoln, Nebraska. Sunday’s severe threat could also bring storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail of more than 1 inch (2.5 cm) in diameter and tornadoes. But the coverage and exact severity could be influenced by how the local atmosphere and weather ingredients come together after the round of severe weather Saturday evening.

So if the atmosphere remains more stable, it will be harder for storms to develop. But if storms are able to initiate, they have the potential to be significant. Sunday’s severe weather is a day to watch closely as the forecast continues to develop.

Monday’s forecast

By Monday, the severe threat shifts northeast as this same system also moves northeast. It is then forecast to impact an area from northern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin down to northern Louisiana.

While most of this area is outlined in a 15% probability for severe weather (the equivalent to a level 2 slight risk), the cities of St. Louis and Springfield, Missouri, as well as Springfield, Illinois, are included in the 30% probability for severe weather. That’s the equivalent to a level 3 enhanced risk.

A strong cold front will move across this area, bringing the chance for severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes by Monday afternoon. And the threat continues into Monday night as the storm system continues moving to the northeast.

Understanding the severe risks

The convective outlooks released by the Storm Prediction Center are a great way to understand the threat for severe weather. But they can be confusing at times. The convective outlooks are a five-level risk overview for severe weather. The severe weather includes threats from severe winds, large hail, tornadoes or a combination of all three.

Level 1 is marginal and the most common. Meteorologists issue level 1 threats more than 270 days out of the year. The other end of the scale is a level 5 high risk. It’s rare to see a level 5 risk. They are usually issued only two to three times a year. And they typically come with the most dangerous severe weather. Meteorologists can issue them for for days 1, 2 and 3, with day 1 being the current day. Days 1 and 2 also have individual risk breakdowns for wind, hail and tornado threats. You can learn more about the risk levels through the graphic below.

Receiving severe weather alerts

Staying safe during severe weather means being aware that severe weather could happen. So stay up to date with your local forecast by going to the National Weather Service website and entering your location for the latest forecast. You should also check the Storm Prediction Center to see if your area is outlined in a risk for severe weather.

If severe weather is forecast for your location, you should make sure you have multiple ways to receive important weather warnings. Our phones have the ability to receive Wireless Emergency Alerts, or WEA. These are designed to be loud and get your attention while driving, at work or even just working around your home. WEA is one way to receive a warning and your local media is another. But the best way to get critical weather warnings is to have a NOAA Weather Radio.

A Weather Radio is loud. It is designed to wake you up in the middle of the night or grab your attention from another room. It will alert you to any issued warnings for your programmed county. This will help you quickly get to your safe place. You can learn more about weather radios, or how to program one, here.

Bottom line: The forecast calls for multiple days of severe weather across the Plains and the Midwest this weekend and by early next week. Stay up to date with your local forecast and have multiple ways to receive vital weather warnings.