Earth

Hurricane Milton now a Cat 5, headed for Florida

Posted by
Kelly Kizer Whitt
and
October 7, 2024

Hurricane Milton threatens Florida’s west coast

Hurricane Milton, which sprang to life in the western corner of the Gulf of Mexico, has rapidly intensified as it barrels toward the west coast of Florida. As of Monday, its maximum sustained winds were 180 miles per hour, making it the strongest category, a Category 5 storm. The exact track of the hurricane is still uncertain, but it will brush past the Yucatan before coming onshore late Wednesday or early Thursday around the Tampa Bay area.

The National Weather Service said that areas where Milton comes ashore should expect rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches.

As Jeff Masters wrote in Yale’s Climate Connections blog:

The most vulnerable metropolitan area in the U.S. to storm surge damage is Tampa/St. Petersburg. That’s according to a 2015 report by Karen Clark & Company, Most Vulnerable US Cities to Storm Surge Flooding. Their 1-in-100-year storm (with a 1% chance of occurring in any given year) was a strong Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph (240 km/h) winds. Such a storm striking just north of Tampa Bay could be expected to cause $230 billion in damage (2024 USD) – just from the storm surge.

There are some 3.5 million residents in the four-county region surrounding Tampa Bay.

Rapid intensification of Hurricane Milton

Meteorologists define rapid intensification as when a hurricane undergoes an increase in wind speeds of 35 mph in 24 hours. From Sunday to Monday, Hurricane Milton increased its wind speeds by 85 mph in 24 hours. By noon Eastern Time on Monday, Hurricane Milton had become a Category 5 hurricane. But it should weaken before it comes onshore on Florida’s west coast Wednesday or Thursday. Unfortunately, the storm surge is already built up. Think of it in comparison to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. It was a Category 5 in the Gulf but weakened to Category 3 went it came onshore. However, it still brought with it the storm surge of a Category 5 storm in the New Orleans area.

Map showing Gulf of Mexico and path of hurricane to Florida's west coast.
This was the likely path of Hurricane Milton as of Monday morning, October 7, 2024. Image via NHC/ NOAA.
Satellite image of Gulf of Mexico with hurricane Milton near Yucatan Peninsula and clouds taking up much of the gulf.
This is the view of Hurricane Milton from space on Monday morning, October 7, 2024. Milton underwent rapid intensification and is poised to hit Florida’s west coast late Wednesday or early Thursday. Image via NOAA.

Prepare now!

Delaying Europa Clipper

The mission to Jupiter’s moon Europa – known as Europa Clipper – was supposed to launch from Cape Canaveral on October 10. Due to Milton, that launch is postponed, with no rescheduled date yet. However, due to planetary alignments that the mission must make use of, the launch window only extends to the end of October.

Meanwhile, another mission – Hera, the “crime scene investigator” for the Dart mission to Dimorphos – managed to launch ahead of the storm on Monday.

Hurricane Helene

Hurricane Helene recently came ashore on September 26, 2024, in Florida’s Big Bend region, north of Tampa. But that storm also impacted the Tampa area. Many of the surrounding communities had record storm surges in that storm. Milton is poised to strike the area more directly.

But exactly where Milton comes onshore will make a big difference. The farther south the storm hits Florida, the better it will be for the Tampa area. That’s because the northern winds bring less storm surge than winds on the south side of the hurricane. Of course, the farther south it hits, the worse it will be for areas around Fort Myers, which were badly damaged in Hurricane Ian in 2022.

A busy hurricane season

Bottom line: Hurricane Milton underwent rapid intensification from Sunday to Monday. It became a Category 5 storm on Monday and will brush past the Yucatan on its way to Florida.

Read more: Stronger hurricanes require new Category 6, researchers say

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Posted 
October 7, 2024
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Earth

Kelly Kizer Whitt

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About the Author:
Kelly Kizer Whitt - EarthSky’s roving nature reporter on YouTube - writes and edits some of the most fascinating stories at EarthSky.org. She's been writing about science, with a focus on astronomy, for decades. She began her career at Astronomy Magazine and made regular contributions to other outlets, including AstronomyToday and the Sierra Club. She has nine published books, including a children's picture book, Solar System Forecast, and a young adult dystopian novel, A Different Sky.

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