Sun news: M flare erupts as solar wind heads to Earth

Sun news October 19: M flare erupts as solar wind heads to Earth

Today’s top story: A coronal hole — an area of lower density in the sun’s atmosphere — is currently crossing the center of the solar disk. The high-speed solar wind streaming out of it should reach Earth tomorrow. When it arrives, forecasters expect G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm conditions and possible auroras at high latitudes. So what does that mean for skywatchers? If you live in the far north or south, keep an eye out for auroras late on October 19 or on October 20. Those in Northern Scotland and southern New Zealand could catch a glimpse. Meanwhile, AR4551 fired off an M1.7 (moderate) flare near the end of our reporting window, peaking at 9:03 UTC this morning. The blast caused an R1 (minor) radio blackout. This large, magnetically complex sunspot region has dominated flare production for days. And according to forecasters, it still has more to give. Stay tuned!

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC October 18 – 11 UTC October 19)

Flare activity: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Observers recorded 8 flares in all: 1 M-class, 5 C-class (common) and 2 B-class (weak).

• Strongest flare: An M1.7 from AR4551, peaking at 09:03 UTC on October 19. It produced an R1 (minor) radio blackout over southern Africa.
• Other notable flares: A C2.1 from AR4551 peaked at 19:17 UTC on October 18. Meanwhile, newly numbered AR4559 fired two C-class flares, including a C2.0 at 07:18 UTC on October 19.
• Lead flare producer: AR4551 produced 5 of the 8 flares, including the only M-class event. AR4559 contributed 2 C-class flares, and AR4557 added 1 B-class flare.

Sunspot regions: Four numbered sunspot regions populated the visible disk, including two newcomers: AR4559 and AR4560.

• AR4551 (beta-gamma): This large, magnetically complex region remains one of the biggest on the disk. Its strong, persistent, leader spot keeps it productive. In fact, it produced the bulk of the period’s flares, including the M1.7. Forecasters still consider it a potent source of more moderate flares.
• AR4557 (beta-delta): This region shrank slightly. However, it developed a weak delta configuration. It produced one B-class flare during the period. Despite some decay, its evolving magnetic structure keeps it worth watching.
• AR4560 (beta): This newcomer emerged on the northeast portion of the disk and kept developing. For now, it remains small and magnetically simple.
• AR4559 (beta): This newly numbered region emerged just south of AR4551. Despite being small and simple, this region surprised observers with two C-class flares.

Blasts from the sun? Analysts identified no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during this period.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds were slightly elevated as a previous coronal hole’s influence waned. By the end, conditions trended toward normal levels.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) stayed mostly calm. Earlier in the period, it briefly reached moderate levels. Meanwhile, the north-south component (Bz) varied but favored a northward orientation, with brief southward dips.

Earth’s magnetic field: The geomagnetic field stayed quiet to unsettled, with the Kp index ranging from 1 to 3. Conditions reached no storm thresholds. As a result, aurora stayed confined to the highest latitudes.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast: Forecasters expect low activity, with a chance for isolated M-class flares. The likelihood of M-class flares climbed to 25%, up from 20% yesterday. There is still a small chance of X-class (strong) flares. AR4551 and AR4557 remain the main drivers.

Geomagnetic activity forecast:

• October 19: Expect quiet conditions (Kp 0-2) early, trending toward unsettled late in the day as the coronal hole’s high-speed stream approaches. The slow October 16 CME may also arrive, though that’s uncertain. SWPC notes a chance of reaching G1 (minor) storm levels late in the day.
• October 20: G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely as the high-speed stream arrives in full. Auroras could become visible at high latitudes, with a chance of glimpses from northern Scotland and southern New Zealand.
• October 21: Expect active conditions (Kp 3-4) as coronal hole effects wane. Auroras will likely retreat to the highest latitudes.

The sun in recent days

Earlier sun images

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Bottom line: Sun news, October 19, 2026: AR4551 fired an M1.7 (moderate) flare. Meanwhile, a coronal hole’s fast solar wind could trigger auroras tomorrow.

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