Sun activity archive for July 2026

Sun news July 31: M flare breaks lull as Jupiter sails by

An M flare has finally broken the activity lull on the sun. Sunspot region AR4492 in the northwest sparked the M1.9 blast at 17 UTC yesterday, just before rotating off the Earth-viewed side of our star. It was not an especially strong flare, but it lasted a long time, and sent a huge burst of solar material into space. Specialists are currently waiting to see if some of this coronal mass ejection (CME) might be heading toward Earth. From our perspective, the blast seemed to smother the planet Jupiter, which was edging away from our star after it reached solar conjunction – when it reached the far side of the sun from Earth – on Wednesday. Don’t miss this beautiful coincidence of perspective above!

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 30 – 11 UTC July 31)

Flare activity: Solar activity reached moderate levels. The sun produced a total of 16 flares: one M flare and fifteen C flares over the past day.

• Strongest flare: An M1.9 from AR4492 peaking at 17 UTC on July 30. It triggered an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Bahamas.
• Lead flare producer: AR4500 topped the list during this period. It produced five of the C flares logged over the past day.

Sunspot regions: Currently, our star shows eight numbered active regions on the side we see from Earth. Three of them show a beta-gamma magnetic complexity: AR4498, AR4499, and AR4501. All three showed slight growth during this period. In particular, AR4499 developed a delta configuration in its leader spots, then returned to a gamma configuration. The rest of the sunspot regions on the Earth-viewed solar disk show either alpha or beta configurations.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted a chunk of solar stuff hurled into space during the M1.9 event from AR4492. Specialists are now modeling and analyzing this coronal mass ejection (CME) to determine whether a component is heading our way. Notably, LASCO C3 registered a partial halo event during the blast.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions continued at low levels throughout the whole period.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field remained at weak levels. Meanwhile, the Bz component kept shifting between southward and northward , though a southward orientation predominated. A sustained south-oriented Bz component can deliver auroral displays.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet throughout the period, with the Kp index sitting at 1–2. At 11 UTC on July 31, the Kp index sits just at level 1.

Sun news July 30: Chunks of solar stuff on their way to Earth

Forecasters have confirmed that two chunks of sun-stuff are on their way to Earth. These bursts, fired by the sun on July 26 and 27, are fairly faint, and should give our magnetic field only glancing blows between today and August 1. Even so, they might trigger G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming in the coming days. That’s because the waves of solar stuff may combine with fast solar wind streaming from a coronal hole. So fingers crossed for clear skies, all you aurora hunters!

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 29 – 11 UTC July 30)

Flare activity: Solar activity stayed low, with only faint C flares. Our sun produced a total of nine C flares over the past day.

• Strongest flare: A C3.9 from AR4500 peaking at 6:06 UTC on July 30.
• Lead flare producer: AR4498 reached the top of the list during this period, producing six of the C flares logged over the past day.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk filled up fast, with nine numbered active regions visible today. A newcomer that emerged in the northeast quadrant became the first to reach the 4500 label, now officially numbered AR4500. After that came AR4501 in the southeast. These active regions have been changing rapidly. Today, three of them show a beta-gamma magnetic complexity: AR4498, AR4499, and AR4501. The rest of the sunspot regions on the Earth-viewed solar disk show either alpha or beta configurations.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted no new coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in available coronagraph imagery. However, we still await the arrival of the CME produced on July 26 from AR4494, which should reach Earth on July 30. In addition, the filament eruption we saw at 6 UTC on July 27 sent a component our way. It may deliver a faint glancing blow, with an arrival time around August 1.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions averaged moderate-low levels during the whole period.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field stayed at weak strength during this period. Meanwhile, the Bz component pointed southward for the first half of the period, until 21:30 UTC on July 29. After that, it turned mostly northward for the rest of the period. At the time of this writing, it swung back to a south orientation. As always, a sustained south-oriented Bz component favors auroral displays.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet throughout the period, with the Kp index sitting at 0–2. At 11 UTC on July 30, the Kp index sits just above level 1.

Sun news July 29: Flare activity drops as our star takes a breather

Our star is going through a lull. Its tally of six C flares over the past day was half of the previous day’s total. The main hope of an uptick in activity lies with active region AR4498, which fired all of the past day’s flares. Now located near the northeast horizon, it currently carries a modest beta configuration. As it moves into a more central location, a better analysis of its magnetic configuration will become possible. Let’s see how this sunspot group develops.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 28 – 11 UTC July 29)

Flare activity: Solar activity continued at low levels with faint flares. Our sun produced a total of six C flares.

• Strongest flare: A C1.9 from AR4498 peaking at 5:54 UTC on July 29.
• Lead flare producer: AR4498 reached the top of the list during this period. In fact, it produced all six C flares logged today.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk shows seven numbered active regions today. Among them is a newcomer that emerged in the southeast quadrant, now officially numbered AR4499. All of the sunspot regions on the Earth-viewed side of our sun show simpler alpha or beta configurations. As noted, all flare production of the period centered on AR4498. The rest stayed stable or in decay, with no flare production or significant behavior to report.

Blasts from the sun? Observers registered no new coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in available coronagraph imagery. However, the CME produced during the M3.2 (moderate) flare at 15:29 UTC on July 26 from AR4494 is on its way to Earth. Forecasters estimate arrival late on July 30. In addition, the filament eruption we saw at 6 UTC on July 27 sent a component our way. It may deliver a faint glancing blow, with an arrival time around August 1.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions averaged moderate-low levels during this period. Meanwhile, a large coronal hole now sits over the central meridian in the sun’s southern hemisphere. It lies too far south to squarely face us, but a portion of the fast solar wind it produces may start reaching Earth in the next few days.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) started the period at moderate levels. Then it slowly decreased to weak strength at the time of this writing. Meanwhile, the Bz component pointed southward for most of the period, with a few weak northward fluctuations. As always, a sustained south-oriented Bz component favors auroral displays.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet throughout the period, with the Kp index remaining at 1–3. At the end of our observation period, at 11 UTC on July 29, the Kp index sits just above level 1.

Sun news July 28: A synchronized double sun eruption

The sun returned to a low flare level over the past day, producing C-class (common) flares only. But our star still surprised us by blasting out two synchronized eruptions. The first started at around 6 UTC on July 27. It was a huge filament eruption, hurling tons of plasma into space. The event was centered over the sun’s central meridian, or midline, just north of where it meets the solar equator. Remarkably, as this filament eruption began, a huge prominence appeared on the sun’s northwest horizon. That signaled a similar event on the far side.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 27 – 11 UTC July 28)

Flare activity: Solar activity returned to low levels. Observers logged 12 flares, all C-class flares.

• Strongest flare: A C5.2 from AR4494 peaking at 3:18 UTC on July 28.
• Lead flare producer: AR4494 topped the list with 7 flares, including the strongest of the day, the C5.2.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk shows 5 numbered active regions today. Among them is a newcomer just over the northeast shoulder of our sun, now officially numbered AR4498.

• AR4494 (beta): This region continued as the most active on the solar disk. It lost its delta magnetic configuration. Nevertheless, it kept producing C-class flares during the period.
• AR4493 (beta): This region kept decaying and lost its gamma configuration during the period. It now shows a simpler beta configuration. It produced no flares.
• AR4495 (beta): This region showed no significant changes. It also produced no flaring activity.
• AR4496 (beta): This region continued to decay through the period. As it did yesterday, it produced an isolated low C-class flare.
• AR4498 (beta): This region received its number during the period. It still sits too close to the northeast horizon for a complete analysis. Even so, it produced a couple of C-class flares.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted a coronal mass ejection (CME) during the M3.2 (moderate) flare at 15:29 UTC on July 26 from AR4494. Initial analysis shows a chunk of solar stuff heading our way, with an arrival time late on July 30. Meanwhile, the filament eruption we report above hurled a separate CME into space. Analysis of its propagation path is ongoing.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions continued at low levels as the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream waned.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field started the period at weak levels. Then it increased to moderate strength starting at 15:30 UTC. Meanwhile, the Bz component fluctuated mildly between north and south. That was insufficient to drive significant geomagnetic activity.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet throughout the period, with the Kp index remaining at 1–3.

Sun news July 27: Sun-stuff could reach Earth today

A blast of solar material that was launched from the sun on July 24 should give Earth a glancing blow later today. This impact could disturb our magnetic field, possibly triggering G1 (minor) or even G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storms. So aurora watchers in northern Scotland, Scandinavia and similar high-latitude locations should stay alert! Meanwhile, an M3.2 (moderate) flare from AR4494 yesterday afternoon showed signs of blasting more solar material into space. Confirmation remains pending; we’ll let you know in tomorrow’s sun update if this blast is confirmed and, if so, whether it could be on its way to Earth.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 26 – 11 UTC July 27)

Flare activity: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Observers logged 7 flares: 2 M-class flares and 5 C-class (common) flares.

• Strongest flare: An M3.2 from AR4494 peaking at 15:28 UTC on July 26. This event triggered an R1 (minor) radio blackout, briefly affecting high-frequency communications over the Americas and the Atlantic Ocean.
• Second M-class flare: An M1.0 from AR4494 at 2:32 UTC on July 27. It produced an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the western Pacific and East Asia.
• Lead flare producer: AR4494 topped the list. It fired 4 of the 7 flares, including both M-class events and two C-class flares.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk displayed at least 6 numbered active regions, with one new region numbered during the period.

• AR4494 (beta-delta): This region remained the most active on the disk. It maintained a weak delta magnetic configuration, which can produce significant flares. However, its spot area continued to decay overall. It produced both M-class flares during the period.
• AR4493 (beta-gamma): This region showed significant decay in its trailing spots as it approached the western horizon. Its magnetic complexity reduced from beta-gamma to beta. It produced several low C-class flares.
• AR4495 (beta): This region displayed decent growth during the period. It also contributed multiple low-level C-class flares. This region is one to watch for further development.
• AR4496 (beta): This region initially showed slight growth. Then it began to decay about halfway through the period. It produced isolated low C-class flaring.
• AR4497 (beta): This region received its number during the period. It stayed inactive and appears simple and stable for the time being.

Blasts from the sun? Observers detected two CMEs during the period. However, limited coronagraph imagery complicates the analysis.

• CME associated with the M3.2 flare (July 26, ~16:23 UTC): A coronal mass ejection appeared in coronagraph imagery beginning around 16:23 UTC on July 26. It originated from AR4494’s M3.2 flare. Given the near-central-disk location of the source region, an Earth-directed component seems likely. However, NOAA noted that no CME had been confirmed in coronagraph imagery as of its 00:30 UTC discussion. The UK Met Office likewise indicated analysis was still pending.
• Second CME (July 26, ~20:26 UTC): A separate CME appeared beginning around 20:26 UTC on July 26 from an unknown source region. Currently, forecasters predict no Earth impacts from this event.
• Earlier CME from July 24 (approaching Earth): NOAA and the UK Met Office both highlight a CME launched on July 24. They expect it to deliver a weak, glancing blow to Earth late on July 27. This is the primary driver for the geomagnetic activity forecast over the next 24–48 hours.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions continued to ease as the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream waned. Speeds steadily decreased to background levels over the period.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) stayed weak. Meanwhile, the Bz component fluctuated mildly between north and south. That was insufficient to drive significant geomagnetic activity.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet throughout the period, with the Kp index remaining at 0–2.

Sun news July 26 (UTC): CME headed for Earth as solar activity stays low

The sun kept a low profile over the past 24 hours, producing only C (common) flares. But a coronal mass ejection (CME) launched on July 24 is now bearing down on Earth. Models predict arrival as early as late today.

Meanwhile, the solar wind continued to ease from a coronal hole high-speed stream. Speeds settled from around 535 km/s down to near 495 km/s, and the geomagnetic field stayed quiet.

The real story lies ahead. Initial WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeling predicts the July 24 CME could reach Earth around 19:25–19:56 UTC today. Kp indices could reach 5–6, indicating G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions. So if the CME’s magnetic field turns southward upon arrival, aurora watchers from Seattle, Minneapolis, Edinburgh, and possibly Toronto and Chicago could be in for a treat overnight Sunday into Monday.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 25 ? 11 UTC July 26)

Flare activity: Solar activity remained at low to moderate levels. Observers logged 9 C (common) flares, with no M (moderate) or X (strong) events during the period.

• The strongest flare was a C4.2 from AR4495 (S02W01) at 07:25 UTC on July 26. As a C-class flare, it produced no radio blackout.
• Other notable flares: A C2.0 from AR4495 at 05:18 UTC on July 26, plus a C1.8 and two C1.5 flares from AR4496 between 03:00–04:22 UTC on July 26.
• The lead flare producer was sunspot region AR4493. It led the first half of the past day. It fired 4 C-class flares (C1.2–C1.6) between 11:16 UTC and 21:23 UTC on July 25. Then activity shifted to AR4495 and AR4496 in the latter half of the day.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk displayed 7 numbered active regions.

• AR4493 (N05W52, Ehi, beta-gamma): This region remained the largest on disk. But it continued to weaken as its trailing spots decayed into smaller constituent spots. It produced infrequent C-class flares. Its declining magnetic complexity suggests waning flare potential as it approaches the west limb.
• AR4494 (S04E22, beta-delta): This region retained its magnetically complex classification and continued to show flux emergence. So it remains a region to watch for potential M-class flares, even though it remained relatively inactive during this period.
• AR4495 (S02W01): This region emerged as the most active late in the period. It produced the strongest flare (C4.2) and a C2.0 event.
• AR4496 (N05E57, beta): This region showed some growth and produced three C-class flares in the early hours of July 26. Otherwise, it stayed relatively quiet overall. Its eastward position gives it many days of geoeffective (Earth-affecting) potential ahead.
• The remaining regions appeared magnetically simple (alpha or simple beta) and stable. They contributed no significant activity during the period.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted no new Earth-directed coronal mass ejections in available coronagraph imagery during the period. However, a CME from July 24 remains the primary focus, with Earth arrival expected imminently.

• A coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted at approximately 04:38 UTC on July 24 from S20E15. It came with a filament eruption, a C2.4 flare, and weak coronal dimming. WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeling provides two analyses:
  • Leading Edge (LE) analysis (794 km/s): One model run predicts Earth arrival at 19:25 UTC on July 26. Kp estimates of 4–6, depending on CME orientation, indicate G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm potential. Models place closest approach at 6.4 Earth radii.
  • Shock Front (SH) analysis (827 km/s): One model run predicts the faster shock arriving at 19:56 UTC on July 26, with Kp estimates of 4–6 and a closer approach of 6.0 Earth radii. Typically, the shock front arrives first and creates the initial geomagnetic disturbance. Then the main CME material follows and sustains the effects.
• NOAA SWPC characterizes this as a “weak, flanking” CME influence. It expects primary effects on July 27, lingering into July 28. Similarly, the SIDC models a possible arrival late on July 27 or early July 28 as a glancing blow. This timing discrepancy between the WSA-ENLIL model (~19:25–19:56 UTC July 26) and forecaster assessment (July 27) suggests the CME may be weaker or more off-center than modeled. A ±7-hour uncertainty window applies to all model predictions.
• Meanwhile, a separate slow, faint CME appeared at approximately 11:15 UTC on July 25. Analysts measured it at 325 km/s, with no Earth impact predicted.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions reflected a slowly weakening coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS), with possible weak transient features mixed in. Speeds gradually decreased from about 535 km/s to 495 km/s over the past day.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength averaged a weak 4 nT. Meanwhile, the Bz component pointed predominantly northward through approximately 06:15 UTC on July 25. After that, it began weakly oscillating between +/?4 nT. A northward Bz generally keeps Earth’s magnetic shield closed, limiting aurora potential. However, the upcoming CME arrival could change that rapidly. The phi angle remained mainly in a negative (toward-sun) sector, consistent with the polarity of the geoeffective coronal hole.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet over the past day, with Kp values remaining at 0–2 under diminishing CH HSS influences. No geomagnetic storm levels occurred. The SIDC noted two isolated unsettled periods over Belgium (Kp ~3) on July 24 (13–14 UTC) and July 25 (11–12 UTC). Globally, though, conditions stayed subdued. This quiet spell should end with the CME arrival later today or tomorrow.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast: Forecasters expect low to moderate levels over the next three days, with a decreasing chance for M-class (R1–R2) flares through July 28. AR4493 continues to decay as it approaches the west limb, reducing its flare threat. The best candidates for M-class activity are AR4494 (beta-delta, with ongoing flux emergence) and AR4496 (beta, growing, well-positioned in the east). AR4495 also showed renewed vigor late in the period and bears monitoring. The chance for an X-class event remains very low.

Geomagnetic activity forecast:

• July 26: Expect mostly quiet conditions through the daytime hours as CH HSS influences continue to wane, with isolated unsettled periods possible (Kp 2–3). However, the July 24 CME is modeled to arrive as early as ~19:25 UTC this evening. As a result, conditions could climb to active levels (G1 Minor) by late in the day. If the CME’s magnetic field carries a strong southward Bz component, G2 (Moderate) storm levels are possible. Aurora could then appear over Seattle, Minneapolis, Edinburgh, and northern England. Summer twilight will significantly limit visibility at high northern latitudes.
• July 27: Expect active conditions as weak CME influences continue. This day carries the best chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) storms (Kp 5–6). Aurora watchers across the northern tier of the United States, southern Canada, Scotland, and Scandinavia should remain alert for overnight displays. Southern Hemisphere observers in southernmost New Zealand and Tasmania may also catch brief glimpses.
• July 28: Conditions should gradually ease as CME effects fade. Lingering active periods are possible early in the day. Then a return toward quiet to unsettled levels (Kp 2–4) is expected by the end of the day.

Sun news July 25: Low flare action. Big filament eruptions

Right now, the sun is going through a low-action period in terms of flare production. During our observation period, the sun produced only 5 C-class flares. That’s despite several active regions carrying enough potential to trigger M flares, or even X flares. For now, though, they remain calm with low flare activity. But not everything is quiet on our star. A couple of fiery filament eruptions, among others, caught our attention. The first occurred at around 4:24 UTC on July 24. This huge filament eruption in the southeast quadrant hurled a large amount of plasma into space. Shortly after, at around 12 UTC on July 24, a tremendous explosion on the far side revealed itself as a fast prominence on the southeast horizon. These events prove the point: the sun may be in a calm flaring period, but calm is not the same as boring. We will continue to bring you the latest solar news.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 24 – 11 UTC July 25)

Flare activity: Solar activity continued in a low level period over the past day. During the last 24 hours, our sun produced only C-class (common) flares: five C flares in total.

• Strongest flare: A C3.0 at 22:03 UTC on July 24 from active region AR4493 in the northwest.
• Lead flare producer: AR4493 ended as the top flare producer, sparking 3 C flares. AR4494 followed closely with 2 C flares.

Sunspot regions: Today, the solar disk as we see it from Earth shows five labeled active regions. Among them is a newcomer in the northeast, now numbered AR4496.

• AR4489 (alpha): This region is leaving the Earth-viewed solar disk. It now sits at the very edge of the southwestern solar horizon.
• AR4493 (beta-gamma): This region keeps a beta-gamma configuration. It also remains the largest in extent. It led flare production this period.
• AR4492 (alpha): This region remains the second largest. However, it showed stable behavior and produced no flares.
• AR4494 (beta-delta): This region continued growing with new sunspots. It keeps its delta. As a result, it now holds the strongest magnetic configuration on the solar disk today.
• AR4496 (beta): This newcomer sits in the northeast quadrant, still near the horizon. It needs to move into a more frontal position for a complete analysis.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted a filament eruption in the southeast, associated with a C2.4 flare. The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hurled into space during this event are now under modeling and analysis. However, first analysis shows a potential Earth-bound component that may arrive late on July 27 or early July 28.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds averaged moderate-high levels throughout the whole period. Consistent effects from fast solar wind from a coronal hole appear to drive these conditions.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) showed weak strength. Meanwhile, the Bz component pointed weakly northward through most of the period. Then, just at 8 UTC this morning, it moved slightly southward. It has remained south-oriented until the time of this writing. As always, a sustained south-oriented Bz component can drive geomagnetic activity.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field ranged from very quiet to quiet levels during this period. Kp index = 0-2. So what happened to the anticipated G1 storm? The chunk of solar stuff either arrived early, showing up as yesterday’s storming levels, or it arrived today too faint to disturb Earth’s geomagnetic field. At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits just above level 0.

Sun news July 24: Sun stuff jolts Earth’s magnetic field. More tonight?

Earth’s magnetic field got a jolt last night. Fast solar wind from a coronal hole, combined with a complex knot of solar winds known as a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), triggered G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels. As a result, auroral displays were possible at high latitudes. And we anticipate more disturbance tonight. A couple of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that left the sun on July 20 and 21 should arrive today, delivering glancing blows. So don’t put those cameras away! The auroral show may continue with more G1 storming possible.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 23 – 11 UTC July 24)

Flare activity: Solar activity continued at low levels over the past day. During the last 24 hours, our sun produced only C-class (common) flares: nine C flares in total.

• Strongest flare: A C2.8 at 15:12 UTC on July 23 from an incoming, as-yet-unnumbered active region in the southeast.
• Lead flare producer:  AR4494 and AR4493 ended tied as top flare producers, sparking 3 C flares each.

Sunspot regions: Five numbered active regions populate the solar disk today as we see it from Earth. Among them, AR4495 received its official label during this period.

• AR4489 (alpha): This region decayed to an alpha configuration. It produced no flares. It’s nearing the southwest solar horizon.
• AR4493 (beta-gamma): This region lost its delta component. Even so, it keeps a beta-gamma configuration. It also remains the largest in extent.
• AR4492 (alpha): This region remains second largest. However, it showed only stable behavior and produced no flares.
• AR4494 (beta-delta): As we reported yesterday, this region developed new sunspots. Now it shows a delta. It also produced three C flares during this period.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted no Earth-oriented coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in available coronagraph imagery during our observation period.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds were low early in the period. Then, at 17:00 UTC on July 23, speeds jumped to moderate-high levels. They remained there for the rest of the period. The wind stays under the effects of fast solar wind from a coronal hole, combined with a co-rotating interaction region (CIR).

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field showed strong levels late on July 23. At 17 UTC, it decreased to weak strength. Meanwhile, the Bz component deflected mostly southward through the first half of this period. At 3 UTC this morning, it moved slightly northward. It then ended the period nearly neutral. A sustained south-oriented Bz component can drive geomagnetic activity.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during this period, reaching geomagnetic storm levels. At the moment of this writing, the Kp index sits below level 3.

Sun news July 23: Flaring drops, but potential remains

After two days of multiple M flares, sun activity has eased back to low levels, with only C-class flares produced over the past 24 hours. Still, sunspot region AR4493 refuses to quiet down completely. This powerhouse fired 10 of the day’s 13 flares, including the strongest, a C5.3. It also continued growing. Indeed, it remains both the largest region and the most magnetically complex on the disk, holding onto its beta-gamma-delta configuration. So the potential for bigger blasts has not gone away. Forecasters still give M flares a 55% chance today, with X flares at 10%.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 22 – 11 UTC July 23)

Flare activity: Solar activity returned to low levels over the past day. Our sun produced only C-class (common) flares during the last 24 hours: 13 C flares in total.

• Strongest flare: A C5.3 at 3:27 UTC on July 23 from active region AR4493.
• Lead flare producer: Active region AR4493 reached the top once again. This time, it sparked 10 C flares out of the 13 in the period, including the strongest. Meanwhile, AR4494 produced 2 C flares. A new, as-yet-unnumbered incomer in the southeast fired the remaining one.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-viewed side of our sun continues to show four numbered active regions today.

• AR4489 (beta): This region is getting close to the southwestern limb, or edge. It produced no flares during this period.
• AR4493 (beta-gamma-delta): This region continued growing and kept flaring all day. It remains the largest and the most magnetically complex on the solar disk.
• AR4492 (alpha): This active region remained the 2nd largest. However, it produced no flares this time.
• AR4494 (beta): This region developed new sunspots. It also produced a couple of C flares during this period.

Blasts from the sun? A filament eruption in the northwest, near active region AR4493, hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space at 10:45 UTC on July 21. This CME is partially Earth-bound. However, it was a faint event. Therefore, forecasters anticipate no significant effects at arrival.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind continued at moderate to moderate-high levels. It remains under the effects of fast solar wind from a coronal hole, combined with a co-rotating interaction region (CIR).

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field kept showing moderate strength. Meanwhile, the Bz component showed a southward extension through the first half of this period. Then it moved slightly northward. It ended the period nearly neutral. As always, a sustained south-oriented Bz component can drive geomagnetic activity.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels during this period, with Kp values of just 2–3. At the moment of this writing, the Kp index sits below level 3.

Sun news July 22: 23 flares from new powerhouse sunspot region!

Newcomer sunspot region AR4493 continues to be a prolific flare producer. Over the past day, it provided nearly all the flare activity observed from the Earth-viewed solar disk. That included two M flares and 21 C flares, for a total of 23 blasts out of the day’s 24 flares. And this region still has its beta-gamma-delta configuration, the highest possible level of magnetic complexity. That means it surely has more big flaring in store! Stay tuned.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 21 – 11 UTC July 22)

Flare activity: Solar activity stayed at moderate levels over the past day. During this period, the sun sparked a total of 24 flares: 2 M-class (moderate) flares and 22 C-class (common) events.

• Strongest flare: An M3.6 at 6:35 UTC on July 22 from active region AR4493. An R1 (minor) radio blackout accompanied the M flare, affecting an area over India.
• Other M flares: An M1.7 at 17:27 UTC on July 21 from AR4493. It triggered an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the east coast of México.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-viewed side of our sun shows four numbered active regions today. Among them is a newcomer emerging from the southeast horizon, now numbered AR4494.

• AR4489 (beta): This region kept its beta configuration. It continued showing signs of decay. It produced no flares during this period.
• AR4493 (beta-gamma-delta): This region shows the strongest complexity on the solar disk and ranks largest in extent. It continued growing and kept flaring all day.
• AR4492 (alpha): This active region ranks second largest in extent. However, it decayed to an alpha configuration. It produced no flares.
• AR4491 (alpha): This region decayed entirely to just a bright area. Still, it contributed one C flare this morning before disappearing.

Blasts from the sun? Observers detected no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in available coronagraph imagery over the past day.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind continued at moderate to moderate-high levels. The arrival of fast solar wind from a coronal hole, combined with a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), has been driving this rise.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field is showing moderate strength. Meanwhile, the Bz component underwent several extended southward deflections. A sustained south-oriented Bz component can drive geomagnetic activity.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet to active during this period, with Kp values of just 2–4. At the moment of this writing, the Kp index sits above level 3.

Sun news July 21: New sunspot region arrives with a bang

A lull on the sun has been shattered by a volley of 3 M flares from new sunspot region AR4493. This region emerged from nothing and grew rapidly in the past couple of days, and now displays a beta-gamma-delta configuration, which is the highest possible level of magnetic complexity. That means it could have plenty more big flares in store! Stay tuned.

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 20 – 11 UTC July 21)

Flare activity: Solar activity increased from low to moderate levels over the past day thanks to three M flares. Flare production also registered a notable jump. Yesterday, the sun fired just three C-class (common) flares and one B-class (weak) event. This period, it fired 18 flares: 3 M-class plus another 15 C flares.

• Strongest flare: An M3.4 at 22:25 UTC on July 20 from active region AR4493. An R1 (minor) radio blackout accompanied the M flare, affecting an area over Hawaii.
• Other M flares: An M2.5 at 14:36 UTC on July 20 from AR4493 triggered an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean. Later, an M1.1 at 19:20 UTC on July 20, also from AR4493, produced an R1 (minor) radio blackout over Baja California in Mexico.

Sunspot regions: Currently, the sun shows 4 numbered active regions on the side we see from Earth. Among them is a newcomer, now numbered AR4493.

• AR4489 (beta): This region lost its gamma configuration. It also began to show signs of decay. It produced no flares during this period.
• AR4493 (beta-gamma-delta): The unnumbered region in the east we mentioned yesterday emerged from nothing and continued growing. It now shows the strongest complexity there is.
• AR4492 (beta-gamma): This active region underwent notable growth. In addition, it developed a gamma configuration. It produced one C flare.
• AR4491 (alpha): This region showed some decay. Consequently, it reduced from its beta to an alpha configuration today.

Blasts from the sun? The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produced during the three M flares of this period remain under modeling and analysis. Forecasters are working to determine if any could reach Earth.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions averaged at background levels throughout most of the period. However, at 7:30 UTC this morning, speeds increased to moderate levels. The arrival of fast solar wind from a coronal hole, combined with a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), caused this rise.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field showed similar behavior. It stayed weak during almost the entire period. Then, at 6:30 UTC this morning, the Bt component started to increase. By the end of the period, it showed strong levels. Meanwhile, the Bz component pointed southward the whole period. A sustained south-oriented Bz component may drive geomagnetic activity. In short, the calm is passing. The coronal hole’s fast wind is arriving.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet-to-unsettled during this period, with Kp values of just 1–3. No geomagnetic storm conditions occurred. Auroras remained confined to the highest latitudes around the auroral oval. At the moment of this writing, the Kp index sits at level 3.

Sun news July 20: Fast solar wind on its way to Earth

A large coronal hole we saw a couple of weeks ago has passed around the far side of the sun and returned to our star’s Earth-facing side. This “hole” in the sun’s outer atmosphere has just crossed the center of the solar disk. That means the fast solar wind streaming from it is on its way to our planet, and should reach our magnetic field late on July 21. As a result, geomagnetic activity could climb to G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels by July 22. Stay tuned!

Past 24 hours on the sun

(11 UTC July 19 – 11 UTC July 20)

Flare activity: Solar activity remained low over the past day. Observers recorded three C-class (common) flares and one B-class (weak) event.

• Strongest flare: A C2.1 from an as-yet unnumbered region at 7:39 UTC on July 20.
• Other flares: A C1.9 occurred at 18:48 UTC on July 19, followed by a C1.3 at 18:25 UTC on July 19. Both came from a region just beyond the southeast limb.
• The three numbered regions on the visible disk stayed largely inactive throughout the period. Instead, action on the horizon accounted for most of the flaring.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk displayed three numbered active regions.

• AR4489 (beta-gamma): The most magnetically complex region on the disk. It sits in the south-central area. During the period, it underwent slight development and an increase in magnetic complexity. Even so, it stayed largely inactive in terms of flare production.
• Meanwhile, forecasters noted a new, unnumbered region in the east. It shows continued growth.
• The remaining numbered regions stayed mostly unchanged and quiet. They contributed no significant flare activity.
• Finally, active regions beyond the southeast limb continued to produce C-class flares. This suggests potentially significant activity may rotate into view in the coming days.

Blasts from the sun? Forecasters cataloged four coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the period. However, none should impact Earth.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions remained at background levels throughout the period.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field stayed weak. The Bz component fluctuated gently between moderately northward and southward, but the southward dips were not sustained enough to drive geomagnetic activity. These are textbook quiet solar wind conditions: the calm before the coronal hole wind arrives.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet throughout the entire period, with Kp values of just 0–2. No geomagnetic storm conditions occurred. Auroras remained confined to the highest latitudes around the auroral oval. Moreover, the short summer nights in the Northern Hemisphere further limited any visibility.

Sun news July 19 (UTC): Quiet Sun, but a fast wind is coming

(11 UTC July 18 ? 11 UTC July 19)

The sun took a breather over the past 24 hours. Flare production stayed at low levels, with only a handful of modest C-class flares recorded. The Earth-facing disk hosted just two small, magnetically simple sunspot regions. Neither showed much ambition. However, new activity is stirring just beyond view. Multiple low-level flares came from at least one region rotating onto the northeast limb. This hints at fresh magnetic complexity that could boost activity in the days ahead. Meanwhile, the solar wind stayed sluggish, averaging around 325 km/s. Earth’s magnetic field also stayed quiet under benign conditions. But don’t let the calm fool you. A large coronal hole is poised to send a fast wind stream toward Earth by July 21 and 22, with speeds potentially reaching 700 km/s. That arrival could push geomagnetic conditions to G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Consequently, aurora watchers at high latitudes should stay on the alert.

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: Solar activity remained at low levels. Observers logged four C (common) flares during the period.

• Strongest flare: A C1.6 from a source near N24E88 (northeast limb) at 15:40 UTC on July 18. As a C-class event, it produced no radio blackout.
• Other flares: A C1.2 at 10:18 UTC, a C1.3 at 17:17 UTC, and a C1.5 at 21:39 UTC on July 18. All came from sources near or beyond the east limb.
• Note: The NOAA discussion also mentioned a C2.3 flare from AR4489 at 04:05 UTC on July 18. It fell just before our reporting window. Still, it ranked as the strongest named-region flare of the broader period.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk displayed two numbered active regions. Both are small and magnetically simple.

• AR4489 (alpha): This region sits near disk center. It stayed stable throughout the period. It also produced the C2.3 flare early on July 18. However, its simple alpha magnetic configuration limits its flare potential.
• AR4491 (alpha): This region also stayed stable and quiet. It showed no significant flaring during the period.
• Meanwhile, at least one unnumbered region is rotating into view near N15 on the northeast limb. Multiple C-class flares came from this area. That suggests it may carry more magnetic complexity than forecasters can currently assess. It should become fully analyzable over the next 1–2 days.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the past day.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds remained sluggish. They decreased from around 370 km/s to 325 km/s over the period, well within background levels.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) stayed weak, with total field strength (Bt) reaching only 5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated gently between +3 and -3 nT. It never sustained a southward orientation long enough to drive any geomagnetic response. These are textbook quiet-time conditions.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet throughout the period, with Kp values ranging from 0 to 2. No geomagnetic storm levels occurred. Local indices at Chambon-la-Forêt (Ak = 11) and Wingst (Ak = 8) confirmed the globally quiet picture. As a result, aurora stayed confined to the high-latitude auroral oval, with no enhancements visible at lower latitudes.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast: Forecasters expect low levels to continue through July 19–21, with a slight chance for M-class (R1–R2) flares. The new region or regions rotating onto the northeast limb near N15 will drive any uptick in activity. As they come fully into view for better analysis, the M-class probability may increase.

By contrast, AR4489 and AR4491 should not produce significant flaring, given their simple alpha magnetic configurations. Likewise, the chance of an X-class flare remains very low.

Geomagnetic activity forecast:

• July 19: Expect quiet-to-unsettled conditions (Kp 1–3). A small chance exists for an isolated active interval (Kp 4) if a mild high-speed stream from a northern coronal hole (SIDC CH 174) arrives late in the day. Otherwise, background solar wind conditions should prevail.
• July 20: Quiet-to-unsettled conditions are likely (Kp 1–3). Solar wind should remain near background levels ahead of the main coronal hole fast wind arrival. No CME influences are expected.
• July 21: Expect unsettled-to-active conditions (Kp 3–5). The chance of G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm intervals will increase as a large coronal hole high-speed stream begins to arrive. Wind speeds may reach about 450 km/s. Minor auroral enhancements are possible at high latitudes such as northern Scotland, southern Alaska, and similar magnetic latitudes. However, very short midsummer darkness hours will severely limit visibility.
• July 22: Active to G1 (minor) storm conditions are likely (Kp 4–5). Moreover, a chance exists for G2 (Moderate) intervals if the fast wind peaks near 700 km/s, as some models suggest. If conditions align, aurora could appear over Seattle, Edinburgh, Oslo, and similar latitudes. Again, though, limited hours of true darkness will significantly constrain Northern Hemisphere observers.

Sun news July 18: Large coronal hole turns toward Earth

(11 UTC July 17 – 11 UTC July 18)

An enormous coronal hole has emerged from the east. A coronal hole is a large, temporary region in the sun’s atmosphere, or corona, where the plasma is cooler, less dense, and more magnetically open than its surroundings. These open magnetic field lines let fast solar wind escape into space. This hole spans the sun’s equator, connecting the northern and southern hemispheres. Meanwhile, the sun’s rotation is carrying it westward. Soon, it will reach a position where its fast solar wind can affect Earth. As this solar wind strikes Earth and disturbs our magnetic field, we might get auroras! Stay tuned.

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: Sun activity over the past day dropped from low to very low levels. A long-awaited sunspot region that’s been blasting flares from behind the sun’s southeastern horizon hasn’t proven to show an interesting magnetic complexity, and it’s not growing in size. For now, it looks quite stable with low flare potential. Over the past day, the sun produced more B (weak) flares than C (common) flares: 6 flares in total; 2 Cs and 4 Bs.

• Strongest flare:  There were two C2.3 flares as strongest flare of the period. The first from an incoming region in the northeast limb as-yet-unnumbered peaking at 1:20 UTC on July 18. The second  from AR4489. It peaked at 4:05 UTC on July 18.
• Lead flare producer: This newcomer active region now located at the northeast and as-yet-unnumbered, is today’s lead flare producer with 5 flares out of the 6 flares of the period. One of those flares was one of the two strongest of the day.

Sunspot regions: Today the sun was left again with only two numbered active regions on its Earth-viewed side. The rest decayed. There is an incomer sunspot region, as-yet-unnumbered, showing in the sun’s northeast.  

• AR4489 increased its magnetic configuration to a beta complexity. It produced one of the strongest flares of the past day.
• AR4491 continued with its alpha magnetic configuration. Expectancy on this active region has dropped.

Blasts from the sun? No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were reported by observers from available coronagraph imagery during the past day.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds decreased from moderate to moderate-low levels throughout the period. There is no significant space weather to report. Meanwhile, the interplanetary magnetic field showed consistently shifting between moderate to weak levels.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The Bz component pointed southward until 18 UTC on July 17. Then it started shifting consistently for short periods, from south to north. At the time of this writing the Bz component shows a weak northward orientation. The brief southward configurations do not favor auroras. Longer periods are needed to open Earth’s magnetic field to incoming solar wind energy.

Earth’s magnetic field: The geomagnetic field showed very quiet levels during this period (Kp 0–1). There was no significant geomagnetic field behavior. At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits at 1.

Sun news July 17: Eagerly awaited sunspot region arrives

(11 UTC July 16 – 11 UTC July 17)

A long-awaited sunspot region that’s been blasting flares from behind the southeastern horizon has finally emerged into view. Meet AR4491! Its position close to the sun’s edge makes analysis difficult, but forecasters have assigned it an alpha configuration for now. The region also appears smaller than expected. But, again, its location near the horizon can make it appear smaller than it is. Its true size and power will becomer apparent in the coming days! For now, it remained the leading flare producer of the past day and also fired the strongest flare of this period, a C5.3.

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: Sun activity over the past day remained at low levels. In total, the sun fired 3 C-class (common) flares.

• Strongest flare: A C5.3 from AR4491. It peaked at 21:35 UTC on July 16.
• Lead flare producer: Newcomer active region AR4491 stayed at the top. This time, the sunspot region produced two C flares, including the strongest of the period.

Sunspot regions: Currently, the sun shows four numbered active regions on its Earth-viewed side. Notably, the newcomer sunspot region received its official label: AR4491.

• AR4489 (alpha): This sunspot region stayed stable during the period. It continued to show an alpha complexity.
• AR4482 (alpha): This region kept its simpler alpha configuration. It now sits at the very edge of the southwest horizon. Meanwhile, it remains stable with no flare production.
• AR4490 (beta): This region exhibited minor decay with no flare activity.
• AR4491 (alpha): The newcomer still sits too close to the solar southeast horizon for a complete analysis. For starters, forecasters assigned it an alpha configuration.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in available coronagraph imagery during the past day.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds continued at moderate levels throughout the period. No significant space weather occurred. Meanwhile, the interplanetary magnetic field stayed at weak levels.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The Bz component pointed northward from 21 UTC on July 16 through 2:30 UTC on July 17. For the rest of the period, it showed a southerly orientation. It still points south at the time of this writing. A southward configuration favors auroras because it opens Earth’s magnetic field to incoming solar wind energy.

Earth’s magnetic field: The geomagnetic field stayed at quiet levels during this period (Kp 1–2). At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits slightly above level 2.

Sun news July 16: A fiery sunspot region is showing its nose

(11 UTC July 15 – 11 UTC July 16)

A fiery sunspot region is showing its nose on the southeast solar horizon. It has not yet received an official number, since it still sits behind the edge of our star. But even so, over the past 24 hours it became the leading flare producer and fired the day’s strongest flare for the 2nd day running. Not bad for a region that hasn’t even fully arrived yet! Its strongest flare this time was a C8.9, just shy of the M (moderate) flare boundary. So all eyes are now on the southeast, where constant fiery prominences – long ropes of solar material – show that this region’s arrival is imminent. Stay tuned.

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: Over the past day, solar activity continued at low levels, though it edged close to moderate. In total, the sun fired six flares: five C-class (common) and one B-class (weak).

• Strongest flare: A C8.9 from the as-yet-unnumbered incoming region in the southeast. It peaked at 21:55 UTC on July 15.
• Lead flare producer: This as-yet-unnumbered newcomer stayed at the top. It blasted out four C flares in a row, including the strongest of the period.

Sunspot regions: Today, the sun continued to show two numbered active regions on its Earth-viewed side. However, the approaching sunspot region in the southeast is ready to come into view as a newcomer.

• AR4489 (alpha): This sunspot region showed no significant changes in magnetic configuration or size. It continued to have an alpha complexity. It produced one C flare.
• AR4482 (alpha): This region kept its simpler alpha configuration. It is ready to depart over the southwest horizon. It remains stable with no flare production.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in available coronagraph imagery during the past day.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds averaged at moderate levels during the past day. No significant space weather occurred. Meanwhile, the interplanetary magnetic field decreased from moderate levels late on July 15 to weak levels early this morning.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The Bz component pointed mostly southward throughout the period, with a few weak northward peaks in the first half. At the time of this writing, its orientation has moved slightly north. As always, a southward configuration favors auroras because it opens Earth’s magnetic field to incoming solar wind energy.

Earth’s magnetic field: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels (Kp 1–3). At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits at level 3.

Sun news July 15: Solar action is on the far side

(11 UTC July 14 – 11 UTC July 15)

The most exciting solar activity is currently on the sun’s far side. We can tell thanks to the fiery prominences – long ropes of solar material – on the northwestern and southwestern solar horizons. Take a look at our top image. It seems the sunspot regions that just rotated to the far side are keeping up their fiery activity, which is spilling over the western limb (edge). For example, AR4485, which rotated to the far side a couple of days ago, registered a C1.2 flare during this period. This blast was likely larger than measured, since the sun itself blocked part of its light.

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: Solar activity stayed at low levels over the past day. In total, the sun fired four flares: three C-class (common) and one B-class (weak).

• Strongest flare: A C3.9 from an as yet unnumbered incoming region in the southeast, peaking at 12:39 UTC on July 14.
• Lead flare producer: This as yet unnumbered newcomer led the pack. It sparked two of the four tracked flares, including the strongest C-class event plus another C1.1 flare. Meanwhile, AR4489 produced a B flare and AR4485 added one C flare.

Sunspot regions: Today the sun shows two numbered active regions on its Earth-viewed side. Interestingly, the two sunspot regions sit in opposite directions, one in the southeast and the other in the southwest. As a result, they look almost symmetrically placed. Take a look at our sun image below.

• AR4489 (alpha): This moderately sized sunspot has received a number. It still sits close to the horizon, so its magnetic structure is difficult to analyze. For now, forecasters defined it as an alpha configuration until they can assess it better.
• AR4482 (alpha): This region stayed mostly unchanged, showing signs of decay with a simpler alpha configuration.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in available coronagraph imagery during the past day.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds increased from moderate to moderate-high levels during the period. The combined effects of weak CME arrivals and fast solar wind drove this rise. Meanwhile, the interplanetary magnetic field registered strong levels late on July 14, before decreasing to moderate levels.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The Bz component pointed northward during the first half of this period. Then, at 18 UTC on July 14, it turned southward for the rest of the period. This configuration favors auroras because it opens Earth’s magnetic field to incoming solar wind energy.

Earth’s magnetic field: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels (Kp 2–4). The Kp index reached 4 (active) during one three-hour period at 5:54 UTC on July 15. At the time of this writing, the Kp index continues at level 4.

Sun news July 14: Solar eruption stirs Earth’s magnetic field

(11 UTC July 13 – 11 UTC July 14)

The expected coronal mass ejection (CME) fired from the sun on July 10 did arrive. But it didn’t reach G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Instead, the geomagnetic disturbance peaked as a minor Kp 4 enhancement. Conditions reached that threshold at 00:00 UTC on July 14. The enhancement lasted for one three-hour synoptic period. What caused it? The combined punch of a waning coronal hole solar wind stream and the glancing arrival of the CME. Now we keep watching ahead, as more CMEs could brush past Earth over the next several days. So stay alert, aurora watchers!

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: Solar activity continued at low levels over the past day. The sun produced a total of 6 flares: 2 C-class (common) and 4 B-class (weak).

• Strongest flare was a C1.4 from AR4485 peaking at 17:47 UTC on July 13.
• Lead flare producer: AR4485 stayed on top once again. This time it dominated with 3 of the 6 tracked flares, including the strongest C-class event plus a couple of B flares. Meanwhile, AR4489 chased close behind with two flares: one C and one B.

Sunspot regions: Currently, 5 numbered active regions populate the Earth-viewed solar disk. Newcomer AR4489 received its number during this period as it showed its nose over the southeast horizon.

• AR4485 (beta-gamma): The period’s most complex and active region has left the building. Even so, it keeps flaring from the far side, at the very edge of the solar southwestern limb. Observers spotted a beautiful prominence in that area.
• AR4489 (alpha): This moderately sized sunspot has received a number. It still sits close to the horizon, so its magnetic structure is difficult to analyze. For now, forecasters defined it as an alpha configuration until they can assess it better.
• AR4487 (alpha) and AR4482 (alpha): The remaining numbered regions stayed mostly unchanged or showed signs of decay. Both carry a simpler alpha configuration.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted no Earth-bound coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in available coronagraph imagery during the last 24 hours.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions reflected the waning influence of a coronal hole’s high-speed solar wind stream. Speeds averaged moderate levels. They then decreased to moderate-low by the end of this period. Meanwhile, the interplanetary magnetic field registered moderate levels.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The Bz component showed a southerly orientation during the first half of this period. Then, at 22 UTC on July 13, it turned northward for three hours. After 2:30 UTC this morning, the Bz component tilted southward again. This configuration favors auroras because it opens Earth’s magnetic field to incoming solar wind energy.

Earth’s magnetic field: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The Kp index reached 4 (active) during one three-hour synoptic period at 0:00 UTC on July 14. Outside this interval, conditions stayed generally quiet to unsettled (Kp 1–3). By the end of the reporting period, the field had settled back to quiet levels. At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits just below level 2.

Sun news July 13: Sun-stuff could reach Earth tonight

(11 UTC July 12 – 11 UTC July 13)

Earth’s magnetic field is set for another round of disturbance. A burst of sun-stuff – a coronal mass ejection (CME) – fired from the sun on July 10 is edging closer. It could give our planet a glancing blow late today or early tomorrow. This comes after our geomagnetic field already reached G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels yesterday. That was caused by the combined punch of a waning coronal hole solar wind stream and the glancing arrival of a CME from July 9. And looking ahead, forecasters are keeping a close eye on up to four CMEs that could brush past Earth over the next several days. Stay tuned!

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: Solar activity held at low to moderate levels over the past day. Observers logged 8 flares: 4 C-class and 4 B-class events.

• Strongest flare: A C2.6 from AR4485 peaking at 13:46 UTC on July 12.
• Lead flare producer: AR4485 dominated once again, firing at least 6 of the 8 tracked flares, including all four C-class events. However, the region’s productivity should diminish rapidly as it rotates behind the western limb.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk displayed approximately 5 numbered active regions. However, the count is in flux as AR4485 departs around the west limb and a new spot emerges on the east.

• AR4485 (beta-gamma): The period’s most complex and active region has now reached the extreme western limb (edge). Its position makes analysis increasingly difficult. Even so, its beta-gamma magnetic configuration means it has the potential for M-class flares.
• New unnumbered region: A moderately sized sunspot has breached the southeastern limb and is now rotating into view. NOAA will assign a number once the region’s magnetic structure can be better assessed.
• The remaining numbered regions stayed mostly unchanged or showed signs of decay. None exhibited complex magnetic configurations or significant flare activity during the period.

Blasts from the sun? Forecasters tracked multiple CMEs during and around the reporting period. None of the newly observed events should directly impact Earth. Instead, the primary focus remains on previously launched CMEs still en route.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions reflected the waning influence of a coronal hole’s high-speed solar wind stream, combined with the July 9 CME’s glancing arrival. Speeds steadily decreased to near normal. Meanwhile, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) remained normal.

Bt, Bz and magnetic coupling: The Bz component spent much of the morning hours tilted southward. This configuration favors aurora because it opens Earth’s magnetic field to incoming solar wind energy. After midday, however, the Bz turned neutral to mostly northward, closing the door for auroral activity.

Earth’s magnetic field: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (minor) storm levels. The Kp index reached 4 (active) during the 9–12 UTC window on July 12, meeting the G1 threshold. Outside this interval, conditions stayed generally quiet to unsettled (Kp 1–3). By the end of the reporting period, the field had settled back to quiet levels.

Sun news July 12 (UTC): M1.2 flare as CME impacts for Earth loom

(11 UTC July 11 – 11 UTC July 12)

The sun maintained low-to-moderate activity over the past day. Sunspot region AR4485 fired off an M1.2 flare at 7:17 UTC on July 12, as the region approached the sun’s western limb. In turn, the flare triggered a brief R1 (Minor) radio blackout over the sunlit Eastern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, Earth’s magnetic field held mostly quiet overnight. But the calm may not last long. Up to three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are bearing down on our planet. The first should deliver a glancing blow later today (July 12). Two more could arrive in tandem late on July 13 or early July 14. Forecasters say the combined impacts could push geomagnetic conditions to G1 (Minor) storm levels today, with a chance of G2 (Moderate) intervals. As a result, aurora watchers across Scotland, Scandinavia, and similar magnetic latitudes could stay busy into mid-week (though short summer nights will limit viewing opportunities).

Flare activity: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Observers logged six flares during the period: one M-class and five C/B-class events. All significant activity came from AR4485. Notably, the region kept producing flares even as foreshortening near the western limb made magnetic analysis increasingly difficult.

• Strongest flare: An M1.2 from AR4485 (S08W76) at 07:17 UTC on July 12. It triggered an R1 (Minor) radio blackout. The blackout briefly affected HF communications across the sunlit portions of Europe, Africa, and the Indian Ocean.
• Other notable flares: AR4485 also produced a C6.0 flare at 00:28 UTC on July 12, plus C1.1 flares at 13:13 UTC and 20:02 UTC on July 11.
• Lead flare producer: AR4485 fired all six events, including the M1.2 and three C-class flares. Moreover, the region continued to exhibit new flux emergence even as it neared the western limb.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk displayed six numbered active regions. However, the most complex and productive of them is rapidly approaching the western limb.

• AR4485 (beta-gamma) remained the most magnetically complex region on the disk. It continued to show new flux emergence despite approaching the west limb. Foreshortening now inhibits accurate magnetic analysis, though. This region fired all the notable flares of the period, including the M1.2 event.
• AR4488 (beta) received its number during the period. So far, it has remained inactive.
• The remaining four numbered regions stayed stable or showed signs of decay. All carry simple magnetic configurations and produced no notable flaring activity.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted three CMEs during the period. Fortunately, none carry significant Earth-directed components. However, previously launched CMEs remain of interest for the forecast period.

• A CME first appeared at approximately 01:14 UTC on July 12. It erupted from S15W70 (AR4485). Leading Edge analysis measured a speed of about 480 km/s. Modeling predicts no Earth-directed component.
• A second CME appeared at approximately 18:53 UTC on July 11, with a Leading Edge speed of about 656 km/s. One model run found no Earth impact.
• Another CME appeared at approximately 16:09 UTC on July 11. Analysts examined it with both Leading Edge (about 591 km/s) and Shock Front (about 665 km/s) techniques. Neither analysis predicts Earth impact.
• In addition, a faint, northerly directed CME appeared in LASCO C2 and STEREO COR2 imagery starting around 23:24 UTC on July 10. Analysts assessed it as having no Earth-directed component, given its northerly trajectory and faint signature.
• Previously launched CMEs approaching Earth: Three earlier CMEs remain in the forecast window:
  • July 9 CME (associated with a C2.7 flare from AR4485)
  • July 10 CME (associated with a C6.0 flare from AR4485)
  • Two CMEs from July 11 (from a filament eruption in the east and activity from AR4485) They could possibly merge into a single event. Model runs predict Earth arrival around 11:00–12:00 UTC on July 14. Kp estimates of 2–3 suggest only modest additional enhancement.

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds reflected the persistent yet waning influence of a negative-polarity coronal hole high-speed stream. Speeds decreased from about 585 km/s at the start of the period. They gradually eased to about 490 km/s by midday on July 11. Then they rose again to near 530 km/s by the period’s end.

Meanwhile, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength averaged roughly 5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between +7 nT and -4 nT, staying mostly northward. This limited geomagnetic coupling and kept conditions relatively calm. The phi angle remained predominantly in the negative (toward-sun) sector.

Earth’s magnetic field: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels (Kp 1–3) under the weakening influence of the coronal hole high-speed stream. Notably, no geomagnetic storm thresholds were crossed during the period. The predominantly northward Bz orientation limited energy transfer into Earth’s magnetosphere. As a result, conditions stayed subdued despite moderately elevated solar wind speeds.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast: We expect solar activity to remain at low levels, with a chance (25%) for M-class (R1–R2) flares through July 13. The complexity and flare potential of AR4485 drives this outlook as the region transits the western limb. By July 14, AR4485 should have rotated far enough behind the limb to minimize its impact on Earth-side flare activity. The chance for an X-class event stays very low (5%).

Geomagnetic activity forecast:

• July 12: Expect quiet to unsettled conditions early, with diminishing coronal hole high-speed stream influence. By around midday, active conditions are anticipated. Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely as the July 9 CME delivers a possible glancing blow. Confidence on timing and magnitude remains low. If the Bz turns southward, aurora may become visible from Seattle, Edinburgh, Oslo, and similar high-latitude locations. However, very short summer nights will severely limit Northern Hemisphere viewing.
• July 13: This is the main event of the forecast period. The July 10 CME shock front should arrive around 01:41 UTC. The main material follows around 02:15 UTC. Kp indices could reach 5–7, indicating G1–G2 (Minor–Moderate) geomagnetic storms. If conditions align favorably, aurora could appear over Toronto, Chicago, northern England, and southern New Zealand. Conditions should begin tapering late on July 13 as the CME completes its transit past Earth.
• July 14: Two additional CMEs from July 11 may arrive, possibly as a combined event, around 11:00–12:00 UTC. Kp estimates for these stay modest (2–3), suggesting quiet to unsettled conditions. As CME influences wane, the geomagnetic field should return to mostly quiet levels by late in the day and into July 15.

Sun news July 11: Sun still quiet, but auroras possible at Earth

(11 UTC July 10 – 11 UTC July 11)

Over the past day, sun activity saw a slight increase from very low to low levels thanks to a couple of C-class (common) flares. Meanwhile, a chunk of sun-stuff that left our star on July 9 might strike Earth’s magnetic field this weekend, with a glancing blow. That means G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are possible tonight and could extend through July 12.

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: In total, the sun fired 6 flares: 2 C-class and 4 B-class flares.

• Strongest flare: C6.0 from AR4485, peaking at 14:59 UTC on July 10.
• Lead flare producer: AR4485 once more topped the list with 6 flares during this period. In fact, this active region produced every flare of the period.

Sunspot regions: The sun is still quiet. The Earth-viewed solar disk today shows 4 numbered active regions.

• AR4485 (beta-gamma): This region keeps growing slightly. It has lost the “delta” in its magnetic configuration and today shows a simpler beta-gamma configuration. So, magnetically speaking, its potential for flaring has dropped. Even so, it remains a prolific flare producer. The sunspot region is now approaching the southwest solar horizon, ready to depart to the far side.
• AR4481 (alpha), AR4482 (beta) and AR4487 (alpha): The remaining sunspot regions stayed stable. All three showed signs of decay, with no flare activity over the past day.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the C6.0 event from AR4485 at 14:59 UTC on July 10. Initial analysis suggests the bulk of this chunk of solar stuff will pass ahead of Earth. But modeling and analysis continue. In addition, a second event hurled plasma into space: a filament eruption at 13:10 UTC from the northeast. Take a look at our lower image. Modeling of this event is ongoing.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds showed moderate-high levels during the first half of this period. Then, at around 22:45 UTC on July 10, speeds started to decrease. They reached moderate levels by the time of this writing. Meanwhile, the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) held at weak levels throughout the period. The Bz component intermittently shifted between northward and southward during the first half of the period. At around 22:45 UTC on July 10, it turned mostly southward. At the time of this writing, it has turned northward. As a result, magnetic coupling stayed open for aurora activity early this morning, with a slight chance of auroral displays at high latitudes.

Earth’s magnetic field: Over the past day, the geomagnetic field ranged from quiet-to-unsettled levels (Kp 1–3+). Conditions climbed slightly above Kp 3 at 11 UTC on July 10. At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits just above level 2.

Sun news July 10: Is the quiet sun awaiting a big blast?

(11 UTC July 9 – 11 UTC July 10)

Sun activity decreased to very low levels today, with only a few faint B-class flares. Notably, sunspot region AR4482 lost its magnetic complexity – a beta-gamma-delta complexity – which indicates a high potential for flaring. This region now shows a simpler beta configuration. But we’ve seen this before. Other sunspot regions have lost their gamma-delta complexity, then regained a lost delta, sparking stronger flares before departing to the far side. Shall we see the same behavior from AR4482? We will keep watching. Meanwhile, AR4485 continued to grow and developed a small delta in its complexity. It ranks as today’s lead flare producer. Still, only faint B-class flares have emerged from this active region. Stay with us.

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: Over the past day, solar activity dropped to a very low level with only B-class (weak) flares. In total, the sun fired 6 B-class flares.

• Strongest flare: B7.5 from AR4485, peaking at 5:16 UTC on July 10.
• Lead flare producer: AR4485 again topped the list with 4 flares during this period, all B-class. AR4482 followed closely behind, producing 2 B flares.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-viewed solar disk today shows 4 numbered active regions.

• AR4482 (beta): The region has lost its delta complexity. It now shows a simpler beta configuration. Even so, it remains the largest in extent and keeps its mixed polarity.
• AR4485 (beta-delta): This region continued its growth. In addition, it developed a small delta spot.
• AR4481 (alpha) and AR4487 (alpha): The remaining sunspot regions stayed stable, with no flare activity over the past day.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in available coronagraph imagery.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds increased from moderate to moderate-high levels during the period. Fast solar wind from a coronal hole drove this rise. Meanwhile, the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) climbed to strong levels late on July 9. Then, at 22 UTC on July 9, it began easing back to moderate-to-strong levels. The Bz component predominantly pointed southward for most of the period, with only a few weak northward peaks. At the time of this writing, it continues to point south. As a result, magnetic coupling stayed open for aurora activity. There was a slight chance of auroral displays at high latitudes.

Earth’s magnetic field: Over the past day, the geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels (Kp 1–4). Forecasters observed no geomagnetic storm levels during the period. However, conditions reached the active threshold (Kp 4) at 11:20 UTC on July 9. At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits at level 3.

Sun news July 9: Two M flares from promising sunspot region

(11 UTC July 8 – 11 UTC July 9)

Thanks to a couple of M-class flares, sun activity remained at moderate levels over the past day. Sunspot region AR4482 produced both M flares. This is the largest region on the solar disk currently, and has the maximum possible magnetic complexity: beta-gamma-delta. That means it has the potential to fire more M flares and even X flares. This region already fired an X flare when it first appeared on the northeast horizon, so let’s see if it has any more in store!

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: Over the past day, solar activity continued at moderate levels thanks to a couple of M-class (moderate) flares. In total, the sun fired 7 flares: 2 M-class (moderate), 2 C-class (common), and 3 B-class (weak).

• Strongest flare: M1.5 from AR4482, peaking at 17:56 UTC on July 8. It triggered an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the northeast coast of Mexico.
• Second M flare: An M1.2 from AR4482 at 2:27 UTC on July 9. This flare produced a corresponding R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Philippine Sea.
• Lead flare producer: AR4485 again topped the list with 5 flares during this period: 2 C-class and 3 B-class flares.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-viewed solar disk today shows 5 numbered active regions. Two newcomers were officially numbered during this period: AR4486 and AR4487.

• AR4482 (beta-gamma-delta): This region remained the most magnetically complex on the disk. It has the potential for more M-class flares, and even another X-class event.
• AR4485 (beta-gamma): This region grew somewhat and developed a gamma configuration during the period. For a second day running, it ranked as the most active region.
• AR4481 (beta), AR4486 (beta), and AR4487 (beta): All three remained stable, with no flare activity over the past day.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in available coronagraph imagery.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds averaged at moderate levels during the period. Meanwhile, the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength remained at moderate-to-strong levels. The Bz component pointed strongly southward for most of the period, with only a few weak northward peaks. At the time of this writing, it continues to point south. As a result, magnetic coupling stayed open for aurora activity.

Earth’s magnetic field: Over the past day, the geomagnetic field stayed quiet (Kp 1–3). Forecasters observed no geomagnetic storm levels during the period. At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits at level 1.

Sun news July 8: Wham! Huge filament eruption in the northeast

(11 UTC July 7 – 11 UTC July 8)

A huge, fiery eruption lit up the solar northeast at 21 UTC last night. It came in the same area we were watching on Monday, when a fiery prominence erupted almost in sync with another in the opposite direction. But last night’s eruption was much bigger and stronger. Interestingly, no flare accompanied this powerful blast, and no sunspot region sits near the area. It was simply a lifting filament – a rope of solar material and magnetic fields – that violently erupted into space. It’s a spectacular reminder that the sun doesn’t need sunspots to put on a show!

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: Over the past day, solar activity increased to moderate with an isolated M-class (moderate) flare. In total, the sun fired 6 flares: 1 M-class (moderate), 4 C-class (common), and 1 B-class (weak).

• Strongest flare: M4.0 from AR4482, peaking at 14:19 UTC on July 7. It triggered an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
• Lead flare producer: AR4485 topped the list with 3 flares during the period. And AR4482 closely followed with 2 flares, including the M4.0.

Sunspot regions: Currently, our sun shows 3 numbered active regions on its Earth-facing side.

• AR4482 (beta-gamma-delta): This region developed a delta component during the period. It now ranks as both the largest region in extent and the most magnetically complex on the disk. And it carries real potential for more M-class flares and even another X-class event like the one it already produced.
• AR4485 (beta) and AR4481 (beta): Both continue to show simple beta configurations. AR4485 was the most active region of the period. But AR4481 remained stable, with no flare activity over the past day.
• AR4478 (beta-gamma): This region has already departed to the far side.

Blasts from the sun? Ejecta was observed hurtling into space during the M4.0 flare. That event is under further analysis to determine if a component is heading our way to Earth. Meanwhile, the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) seen during the northeast filament eruption appear, on initial analysis, to be directed well away from Earth.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind speeds were at moderate levels early in the period. But around 18 UTC on July 7, they began to decrease to moderate-to-low levels. Meanwhile, the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength stayed moderate. And the Bz component pointed southward for the whole period. It held that strong southward direction through the time of this writing. As a result, magnetic coupling stayed open for aurora activity.

Earth’s magnetic field: Over the past day, the geomagnetic field stayed quiet (Kp 0–3). At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits just above level 3.

Sun news July 7: Monstrous sunspots depart with a fiery show

(11 UTC July 6 – 11 UTC July 7)

The monstrous sunspot regions that put on an impressive show over the past week have now fully departed to the far side of our star. As they crossed the western horizon, these active regions continued to show off their power, producing fiery jets and prominences. Now, with the big active regions on the far side, nearly all flare responsibility on the Earth-viewed side falls to active region AR4482. And with a beta-gamma complexity, this region is showing promising potential.

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: Solar activity dropped to low levels over the past day. Observers registered 5 flares, all C-class (common) events.

• Strongest flare: A C3.8 from active region AR4479 peaking at 18:40 UTC on July 6.
• Lead flare producer: AR4482 and AR4478 ended tied at the top. Each produced two C flares during this period.

Sunspot regions: Currently, 4 numbered active regions appear on the Earth-facing solar disk.

• • AR4478 (beta-gamma): This region now sits at the very edge of the southwest horizon. It will soon depart to the far side.
  • AR4482 (beta-gamma): This region ranks as the largest active region and has a promising beta-gamma magnetic complexity.
  • AR4485 (beta) and AR4481 (beta): Both have a simple beta configuration and remained stable with no flare production over the past day.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in available coronagraph imagery.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions gradually eased from moderate to moderate-low levels during this period.

Bz and magnetic coupling: Meanwhile, the interplanetary magnetic field total strength (Bt) remained relatively weak. The Bz component pointed southward during the first half of the period. Then, starting at around 0 UTC this morning, it shifted northward. It has held that direction until the time of this writing. As a result, aurora activity stayed subdued.

Earth’s magnetic field: The geomagnetic field showed very quiet levels throughout the period. This corresponds to Kp values of 0–2. At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits just below 2.

Sun news July 6: AR4479 exits the stage with a bang

(11 UTC July 5 – 11 UTC July 6)

The sun fired off a barrage of flares over the past 24 hours. Forecasters logged 6 M-class (moderate) flares and 15 C-class (common) flares during the period, nearly all of which came from the prolific sunspot AR4479. The most powerful of these was an M5.3 from AR4479 at 17:51 UTC yesterday, which caused an R2 (moderate) radio blackout across the Americas. It was an impressive farewell from AR4479, with this prolific flare factory now having rotated almost fully out of view over the western horizon.

Past 24 hours on the sun

Flare activity: Solar activity remained high. Observers recorded 21 flares: 6 M-class and 15 C-class events.

• Strongest flare: An M5.3 from AR4479 peaking at 17:51 UTC on July 5. It triggered an R2 (moderate) radio blackout. The blackout temporarily degraded high-frequency radio communications across the sunlit Americas and eastern Pacific. This affected aviation and maritime operations.
• Other M-class flares: M1.4 at 16:41 UTC on July 5 from AR4479; M1.4 at 16:21 UTC on July 5 from AR4479; M1.4 at 18:56 UTC on July 5 from AR4479; M1.0 at 21:14 UTC on July 5 from AR4479. In addition, AR4478 fired an M1.4 at 11:00 UTC on July 5, that region’s sole notable contribution. All M-class events produced R1 (minor) radio blackouts.
• Lead flare producer: AR4479 produced the overwhelming majority of activity. It fired at least 18 of the 21 flares, including all six M-class events and most of the stronger C-class flares (C9.6, C9.5, C8.1, C7.3, C6.1, C5.9, C5.0 and others).

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk displayed seven numbered active regions. Forecasters cataloged 2 new regions during the period.

• • AR4479 (beta-gamma-delta) dominated flare production and now sits right on the western limb. The viewing angle now makes detailed magnetic analysis difficult. Even so, sustained high flare output strongly suggests at least one delta configuration persists. This region produced the vast majority of the period’s activity. We expect it to rotate out of view by July 7.
  • AR4478 (beta-gamma) ranked as the second-most complex region on the disk. However, it stayed mostly quiet this period aside from a lone M1.4 flare. The trailing portion continued to decay.

The remaining regions hold either of alpha or beta complexity.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in LASCO coronagraph imagery during the period. However, the vast majority lacked an Earth-directed component.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions gradually eased to near normal as the lingering influence of the June 30 CME faded.

Bz and magnetic coupling: Meanwhile, the interplanetary magnetic field total strength (Bt) remained relatively weak, keeping aurora activity subdued.

Earth’s magnetic field: The geomagnetic field held at a steady unsettled-to-active level throughout the period. This corresponds to Kp values of 2–3. After a round of geomagnetic storms and auroras over the weekend, no geomagnetic storm thresholds were reached over the past day.

Sun news July 05 (UTC): Another X flare, as geomagnetic storms sweep Earth

(11 UTC July 04 – 11 UTC July 05)

Sun activity surged to very high over the past day, as newly numbered sunspot region AR4482 burst into view on the sun’s southeast (incoming) limb with a powerful X1.3 flare. It’s the sun’s 2nd X flare this week. The flare erupted at 20:29 UTC on July 4. Boom! Fourth of July fireworks from our star. And, meanwhile, here on Earth, auroras danced across our skies last night. Geomagnetic storming reached astounding G3 (strong) levels during the early hours of July 4. In fact, the Kp index surged to 7. This opened the door for colorful displays potentially visible from New York, London, and northern France. And the sun is showing no signs of quieting down. We expect another round of geomagnetic activity over the next two days as additional coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from July 1 and 2 approach Earth. So aurora watchers could stay busy into Monday.

Flare activity: Solar activity reached very high levels over the past day. In addition to the X flare described above, another prolific sunspot region, AR4479, kept firing off flare after flare. This region, which sports a dangerous delta magnetic configuration, produced a dozen M-class flares and numerous C-class events, as it approached the sun’s western limb. Overall, the sun produced 1 X-class flare, 9 M-class flares, and 12 C-class flares during the period, for a total of 22 flares.

• Strongest flare: An X1.3 from AR4482 at 20:29 UTC on July 4. This powerful event triggered an R3 (Strong) radio blackout. It disrupted high-frequency communications in the Pacific Ocean off the U.S. West Coast for approximately 30 minutes. In addition, a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity of about 2,714 km/s) and a tenflare reaching 890 sfu (a solar flare that is accompanied by a major burst of radio noise at the 10-centimeter wavelength) accompanied the flare. These signatures indicate a significant eruption.
• Lead flare producer: AR4479 dominated. It fired at least 12 M-class flares and multiple C-class events across the period. Notable M-class flares from this region included: M1.9 at 18:36 UTC Jul 4, M1.1 at 16:02 UTC Jul 4, M1.1 at 22:16 UTC Jul 4, M1.0 at 23:46 UTC Jul 4, M1.3 at 00:24 UTC Jul 5, M1.0 at 04:41 UTC Jul 5, and M2.7 at 05:21 UTC Jul 5.
• Other notable flares: AR4478 produced an M1.5 flare at 19:23 UTC on July 4. This flare triggered an R1 (Minor) radio blackout. Also, AR4480 contributed an M1.3 flare at 04:19 UTC on July 5.

Sunspot regions: The Earth-facing solar disk displayed six numbered active regions. Two large, complex groups near the western limb dominated the activity. Additionally, a newly emerged region appeared on the eastern limb.

• AR4479 (beta-gamma-delta) remained the most prolific flare producer on the disk. It maintained at least one delta configuration. Even as it nears the western limb, this region continues to unleash a relentless barrage of M-class and C-class flares. However, its geoeffectiveness for Earth-directed CMEs is diminishing as it rotates beyond W90.
• AR4478 (beta-gamma) held the title of the largest sunspot region by area. It produced an M1.5 flare and several C-class events. Still, the region continued to decay, mostly in its trailing portion.
• AR4482 (alpha) received its number on the southeast limb. It immediately made its presence known with the period’s strongest flare, an X1.3. Despite its current simple magnetic classification, early indications suggest that a larger, more complex region will emerge as it rotates further onto the disk. Therefore, it warrants close monitoring in the coming days.
• AR4480 (beta-gamma) produced an M1.3 flare. It is also approaching the western limb.
• AR4481 emerged as a newly identified region during the period. The remaining spot regions stayed quiet and magnetically simple.

Blasts from the sun? Observers spotted multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the period. Fortunately, none of the current 24-hour window carries a significant Earth-directed component. However, CMEs from earlier eruptions on July 1 and 2 are now approaching Earth. These form the basis for the geomagnetic forecast.

Solar wind: Solar wind conditions remained disturbed throughout the period. The ongoing passage of the June 30 CME, which arrived on July 3, drove the disturbance. Solar wind speeds stayed elevated between 550 and 642 km/s. That CME left the sun on June 30 and struck Earth on July 3.

Bz and magnetic coupling: The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked at a powerful 24 nT at 00:33 UTC on July 4. It then gradually declined through the period. The Bz component plunged to a strongly southward –19 nT at 01:05 UTC on July 4. This opened the door for energetic solar wind particles to pour into Earth’s magnetosphere, energizing auroral displays. Afterward, the Bz slowly rotated northward from around 09:30 UTC on July 4, gradually reducing storm intensity.

Earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s magnetic field experienced significant storming during the period. Geomagnetic storm conditions ranged from G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) on July 4. The Kp index reached 7 during the 03:00–06:00 UTC interval. The sustained, deeply southward Bz drove this major storm. Locally, European stations recorded K=6 (moderate storm) during the 05:00–07:00 UTC interval. Activity gradually subsided through the remainder of the period as the Bz rotated northward and the IMF weakened. Even so, conditions remained enhanced above background.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast: We expect (70% chance) solar activity to remain at moderate levels (R1–R2) on July 5, with a slight chance (20%) for X-class flares (R3, Strong). AR4479 and AR4478 remain the primary drivers. However, both are rapidly approaching the western limb.

As AR4479 and AR4480 rotate beyond W90 by July 6, M-class flare chances will begin to decrease. Meanwhile, AR4482 on the eastern limb bears watching. Its X1.3 debut suggests it may harbor significant complexity, which will become clearer as it rotates further onto the disk. We expect activity to decline to moderate levels on July 6, then to low to moderate levels by July 7. Finally, a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) proton event persists through July 5 and 6 due to the active western-limb regions.

Geomagnetic activity forecast:

• July 5: Expect unsettled to active conditions (Kp 3–4) for much of the day. In addition, G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely as additional CMEs from July 1 and 2 arrive. Model runs suggest arrivals between 10:00–18:00 UTC, with Kp potentially reaching 4 to 6. Moreover, an isolated period of G3 (Strong) storming is possible if the Bz turns sharply southward upon CME impact. Possible influence from a coronal hole may add to disturbances later in the day. Aurora may appear over Seattle, Minneapolis, Edinburgh, and Toronto during nighttime hours. It could possibly reach as far south as Chicago and northern England.
• July 6: Expect active to G1 (Minor) storm conditions as CME and coronal hole influences gradually wane. Still, an isolated period of G2 (Moderate) storming remains possible early in the day. Aurora may still shine over northern Scotland, Scandinavia, southern Alaska, and northern Canada. Conditions should ease through the day.
• July 7: Expect mostly quiet to unsettled conditions as disturbed influences taper off. The partial halo CME from the July 3 M6.7 flare may deliver a glancing blow later in the day. Even so, any impact should stay modest (Kp 2–4). Background conditions should largely return.

Sun news July 4: G3 storm arrives with the fireworks!

As expected, the solar material released during this week’s powerful X1.1 flare reached Earth. But it packed a bigger punch than forecast. It arrived as a G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm. Forecasters had anticipated only G1 (minor) or G2 (moderate) levels. But the CME delivered stronger enhancements than predicted. The storm first reached G2 levels at 00:00 UTC on July 4. Then it jumped to G3 levels. The Kp 7 threshold was reached at 5:09 UTC on July 4. And the show was spectacular. Observers reported beautiful auroral displays as far south as Utah, Colorado, and Nevada in the US. Did you catch the Independence Day fireworks alongside the aurora borealis? Did you take a photo? Share it with us! And the party might not end there. A couple of additional coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that left the sun on July 1 and 2 may reach Earth around July 5. That could extend the storming and auroral displays across the whole weekend. Alert for aurora watchers!

Past 24 hours of sun news

(11 UTC July 3 – 11 UTC July 4)

Flare activity

Over the past day, solar activity increased again to high levels. In total, the sun fired 24 flares: 13 M-class and 11 C-class. That is more M-class flares than C-class over the past 24 hours!

• Strongest flare: M6.7 from AR4479, peaking at 18:11 UTC on July 3. It triggered an R2 (moderate) radio blackout over northeast Mexico.
• Other M-class flares:
  M6.3 at 18:59 UTC on July 3 from AR4478. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over northeast Mexico.
  M1.5 at 20:08 UTC on July 3 from AR4479. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean west of Mexico.
  M2.0 at 0:00 UTC on July 4 from AR4480. R1 radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean west of Hawaii.
  M2.3 at 0:23 UTC on July 4 from AR4479. R1 radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean west of Hawaii.
  M1.2 at 2:01 UTC on July 4 from AR4479. R1 radio blackout over the Philippine Sea.
  M4.1 at 3:42 UTC on July 4 from AR4479. R1 radio blackout over Okinawa.
  M4.0 at 3:42 UTC on July 4 from AR4479. R1 radio blackout over the East China Sea.
  M1.3 at 5:15 UTC on July 4 from AR4479. R1 radio blackout over China.
  M1.8 at 8:07 UTC on July 4 from AR4479. R1 radio blackout over Oman.
• Lead flare producer: AR4479 dominated the period with 19 of the 24 flares: 10 M-class events and 9 C-class flares, including the strongest M6.7. Meanwhile, AR4480 contributed 3 flares.

Sunspot regions

Currently, just 3 numbered active regions populate the Earth-facing solar disk. One carries the maximum magnetic complexity. And all three are drawing closer to the western horizon, soon to depart for the far side.

AR4479 (beta-gamma-delta) produced this week’s X1.1 flare and remains the most prolific M-class producer. It fired another strong flare this period, an M6.7, along with a long list of M and C events. It remains the primary region to watch.

AR4478 (beta-gamma) lost its delta component. But it still carries an interesting beta-gamma configuration. And it remains the largest region in extent on the disk. It produced no flares during the period. We keep watching closely.

AR4480 (beta-gamma) was the second flare producer of the period. It retained its gamma component. And it holds real flaring potential.

Blasts from the sun?

A slow-moving CME first appeared in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery around 18:24 UTC on July 3. It may contain an Earth-directed component. Modeling and analysis are underway. We will confirm the results as soon as more data becomes available.

And two more CMEs from July 1 and 2 remain in the pipeline. These may reach Earth around July 5, potentially bringing a fresh round of storming.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind

Solar wind speeds increased from moderate to moderate-high levels throughout the period. Meanwhile, the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) climbed to strong levels. That reflected the arrival of the X1.1 CME.

Bz and magnetic coupling

The Bz component showed intermittent shifts between north and south early in the period. But at 0:30 UTC this morning on July 4, it turned sharply southward and held there. At the time of this writing, the Bz remains southward. The arrival of the X1.1 CME drove this shift. And as always, a sustained southward Bz is what opens the door for the strongest auroral displays. That is exactly what fueled last night’s storm.

Earth’s magnetic field

Over the past day, Earth’s magnetic field ranged from very quiet (Kp 1) to strong storm levels (Kp 7). The calm ended and the storm arrived. It began as a G2 (moderate) storm at 0 UTC on July 4. Then it jumped to G3 (strong) levels at 5:09 UTC on July 4. At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits just above level 5, with a G1 (minor) storm ongoing.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast

Forecasters expect moderate to high activity to continue. The chance for M-class flares returned to 70% today. And the chance for another X-class (strong) event holds at 20% today.

AR4479 kept its beta-gamma-delta configuration and stayed fiercely flare-productive. But AR4478 and AR4480 have eased back to beta-gamma setups. The flare threat remains high for now. But a dramatic change is coming. All three regions are approaching the west limb. And flare activity may drop sharply once they rotate to the far side.

Geomagnetic activity forecast

Alert for aurora watchers! Auroral displays are possible this weekend with G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storms.

• July 4: Active levels may continue through the rest of today. Earth’s magnetic field may ease to G1 (minor) storm levels as the X1.1 CME effects start to wane. But more auroral displays remain possible.
• July 5: Active-to-storming conditions should continue. As the X1.1 CME effects fade, the arrival of the two CMEs from July 1 and 2 may bring storming back. G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms are possible. Share your aurora photos with us!
• July 6: Expect unsettled geomagnetic activity or lower as all CME effects continue waning. Conditions should gradually return toward quiet levels.

Sun news July 3: Sun-stuff to reach Earth today, auroras possible!

The solar material released during Tuesday’s powerful X1.1 flare is expected to reach Earth later today. Forecasters expect it to disturb our magnetic field to G1 (minor) or even G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Disturbances are predicted to begin late on July 3 and extend through July 4. That could mean auroras to go along with any Independence Day fireworks! And the party might not end there. A couple of additional coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that left the sun on July 1 and 2 may reach Earth around July 5. That could extend the storming and auroral displays across the whole weekend. Alert for aurora watchers!

Past 24 hours of sun news

(11 UTC July 2 – 11 UTC July 3)

Flare activity

Over the past day, solar activity dropped to moderate. In total, the sun fired 10 flares: 2 M-class and 8 C-class.

• Strongest flare: M2.8 from AR4480, peaking at 10:25 UTC on July 2. It triggered an R1 (minor) radio blackout over northeast Africa near Egypt.
• Second M-class flare: M1.2 from AR4479 at 23:12 UTC on July 2. It triggered an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean west of Hawaii.
• Lead flare producer: AR4479 remained the most prolific producer. It fired 6 of the 10 flares: 1 M-class event and 5 C-class flares. Meanwhile, AR4480 contributed 4 flares, including the period’s strongest (M2.8).

Sunspot regions

Currently, just 3 numbered active regions populate the Earth-facing solar disk. But two carry the maximum magnetic complexity.

AR4479 (beta-gamma-delta) produced this week’s X1.1 flare and a prolific list of M-class events. It remains the primary region to watch. Will we see another powerful flare?

AR4478 (beta-gamma-delta) still carries the strongest magnetic configuration. And it remains a monster, still the largest region on the disk. It produced no flares during the period. But that quiet could mean it is building up energy for something bigger. We will keep watching closely.

AR4480 (beta-gamma) was the second flare producer of the period. It retained its gamma component and continued growing in complexity. And it holds real flare potential going forward.

AR4475 has left the building. This region has fully departed to the far side via the northwest horizon.

Blasts from the sun?

The main event remains the confirmed halo CME from the X1.1 flare. Modeling places its arrival at late July 3 or early July 4. G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are possible upon arrival.

And two more CMEs are in the pipeline. A filament eruption at 12:11 UTC on July 1 hurled a slow-moving CME with an Earth-directed component. And a second CME from a long-duration M4.2 flare from AR4479 at 2:36 UTC on July 2 also carries a chunk of solar stuff heading our way. This second CME may catch up with the first. Their estimated arrival is late July 5 or early July 6.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind

Solar wind speeds averaged at moderate levels throughout the period. Meanwhile, the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) stayed weak, with a slight increase toward the end.

Bz and magnetic coupling

The Bz component showed a couple of weak southward peaks. But it mostly pointed northward throughout the period. At the time of this writing, the Bz remains northward. That kept Earth’s magnetic shield firmly closed. But conditions could change dramatically later today with the arrival of the X1.1 CME. As always, a sustained southward Bz is what opens the door for the strongest auroral displays.

Earth’s magnetic field

Over the past day, Earth’s magnetic field stayed very quiet (Kp 0–1). The calm before the storm? At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits just at level 1.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast

Forecasters expect moderate to high activity to continue. The chance for M-class flares dipped slightly to 65% today. And the chance for another X-class (strong) event also eased slightly to 15% today. Both AR4479 and AR4478 retain their beta-gamma-delta configurations. And AR4480 is developing rapidly with its new beta-gamma setup. The flare threat remains high.

Geomagnetic activity forecast

Alert for aurora watchers! Auroral displays are possible this weekend with G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storms.

• July 3: Expect active levels later today. Earth’s magnetic field may reach G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) storm levels with the arrival of the X1.1 CME. That could develop conditions for auroral displays.
• July 4: Active conditions up to storming levels should continue through July 4. The X1.1 CME drives this activity. Share your aurora photos with us!
• July 5: Conditions should ease to minor storming levels as the X1.1 CME effects wane. But geomagnetic activity may climb again with the arrival of the two CMEs that left the sun on July 1 and 2. Stay alert!

Sun news July 2: Confirmed! X flare sun-stuff on its way to Earth

It’s confirmed: solar material released during Tuesday’s powerful X1.1 flare is on its way to Earth. Specialists found it challenging to pin down the exact arrival time, but they’re expecting it to disturb our magnetic field late tomorrow or early on July 4. And with up to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storms predicted, that could provide some auroras to go with any early Independence Day fireworks!

Past 24 hours of sun news

(11 UTC July 1 – 11 UTC July 2)

Flare activity

Over the past day, solar activity remained high. In total, the sun fired 13 flares: 8 M-class and 5 C-class events.

• Strongest flare: M8.5 from AR4478, peaking at 23:09 UTC on July 1. It triggered an R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean west of Hawaii.
• M-class flares: AR4479 fired six M-class events during the period: M1.0 at 11:25 UTC on July 1 (R1 over north Africa); M1.1 at 14:31 UTC on July 1 (R1 over the Atlantic); M2.6 at 14:54 UTC on July 1 (R1 over the Atlantic Ocean); M3.5 at 19:43 UTC on July 1 (R1 over northwest Mexico); M1.8 at 20:22 UTC on July 1 (R1 over the Pacific Ocean west of Mexico); and M4.2 at 1:56 UTC on July 2 (R1 over the Philippine Sea). And AR4478 contributed an M1.1 at 0:02 UTC on July 2 (R1 over the Pacific Ocean west of Hawaii).
• Lead flare producer: AR4479 topped the list again with 9 of the 13 flares. These included 6 M-class events and 3 C-class flares. Meanwhile, AR4478 contributed 2 flares, including the period’s strongest (M8.5).

Sunspot regions

Currently, 4 numbered active regions populate the Earth-facing solar disk. Two carry the maximum magnetic complexity, and one is developing extra strength.

AR4479 (beta-gamma-delta) retains the highest possible magnetic configuration. It produced this week’s X1.1 flare and a prolific list of M-class events. It remains the primary region to watch.

AR4478 (beta-gamma-delta) remains the largest region in extent on the disk. It produced the period’s strongest flare, the near-X-class M8.5. And its beta-gamma-delta complexity keeps it firmly on the watch list.

AR4480 (beta-gamma) is the one to watch for development. This region gained a gamma component and is growing in complexity. As it continues evolving, its flare potential increases.

AR4475 (beta) is now at the very edge of the southwest horizon. It should depart for the far side shortly.

Blasts from the sun?

A filament eruption associated with an M1.3 flare peaking at 12:01 UTC on July 1 is under observation. Initial analysis shows an Earth-directed component. But further analysis is necessary to confirm the arrival time and potential impact.

And the main event remains the confirmed halo CME from the X1.1 flare. Modeling places its arrival at late July 3 or early July 4. G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are possible upon arrival.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind

Solar wind speeds averaged low-to-moderate levels throughout the period. Meanwhile, the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) held at strong levels for the early portion of the period. Then, at around 0:30 UTC on July 2, it dropped to weak levels.

Bz and magnetic coupling

The Bz component pointed northward throughout the whole period. At the time of this writing, the Bz remains northward. That kept Earth’s magnetic shield firmly closed. But conditions could change dramatically on July 3 with the arrival of the X1.1 CME. As always, a sustained southward Bz is what opens the door for the strongest auroral displays.

Earth’s magnetic field

Over the past day, Earth’s magnetic field stayed at quiet levels (Kp 1–3). At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits slightly above level 1. But that calm may not last long.

Sun news July 1: X flare! Sun-stuff speeding to Earth?

BAM! At 20:50 UTC last night, sunspot region AR4479 unleashed an X flare, the most powerful class of solar flare. A dimming in the extreme ultraviolet wavelength confirmed to experts that this X1.1 flare released solar material into space. And radio wave data revealed that this sun-stuff left our star at a staggering 1,500 kilometers per second, or over 3.3 million miles per hour! It was then the turn of the SOHO spacecraft, which recorded a halo coronal mass ejection (CME), meaning the eruption expanded in all directions around the sun as seen from Earth. That’s a strong sign that solar material from this blast might reach our planet’s magnetic field. If so, it could potentially trigger geomagnetic storms and auroras in the coming days. Confirmation to come. Stay tuned!

Past 24 hours of sun news

(11 UTC June 30 – 11 UTC July 1)

Flare activity

Over the past day, solar activity jumped to high. In total, the sun fired 16 flares: 1 X-class, 6 M-class, and 9 C-class events.

• Strongest flare: X1.1 from AR4479, peaking at 20:50 UTC on June 30. The event triggered an R3 (strong) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean northeast of Hawaii.
• M-class flares: M5.9 from AR4475 at 12:57 UTC on June 30, triggering an R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean west of Africa. Then AR4479 fired four consecutive M-class flares on July 1: M1.2 at 6:27 UTC (R1 over Bangladesh); M1.0 at 6:43 UTC (R1 over northeast India); M1.6 at 7:35 UTC (R1 over the south coast of Pakistan); and M2.6 at 8:17 UTC (R1 over the Gulf of Oman). AR4480 sparked the sixth M flare of the period, an M1.4 at 10:08 UTC on July 1 (R1 over Egypt).
• Lead flare producer: AR4479 dominated the period with 6 of the 14 flares. These included the X1.1, four M-class events, and a C-class flare. Meanwhile, AR4475 contributed 4 C-class flares, including the M5.9.

Sunspot regions

Currently, the Earth-facing solar disk shows 5 numbered active regions. Two carry notable magnetic complexity.

AR4479 (beta-gamma-delta) retains its maximum-complexity magnetic configuration. It was the undisputed lead flare producer of the period. And it still carries real potential for further significant eruptions.

AR4478 (beta-gamma-delta) remains the largest region on the disk. It showed slight growth in its intermediate area. And as it moves toward the disk center, its potential for Earth-affecting blasts grows.

AR4475 (beta) lost its gamma-delta component and now carries a simpler beta configuration. It is approaching the southwest horizon and should soon depart for the far side.

Blasts from the sun?

The X1.1 flare is being modeled and analyzed to determine whether any of the sun-stuff it released is heading our way to Earth. The shock speed, estimated at roughly 1,500 km/s, tells us this was a fast, powerful eruption. And the halo coronal mass ejection, picked up by the SOHO spacecraft’s LASCO C2 and LASCO C3 instruments, is a classic signature of an Earth-directed event. However, we’re waiting for the results of a full analysis.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind

Solar wind speeds held at moderate levels throughout the period. Meanwhile, the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) climbed to strong levels for most of the period. That reflected the arrival of a CME from June 26.

Bz and magnetic coupling

The Bz component initially pointed southward. Then it shifted northward, starting at 18 UTC on June 30, and maintained that orientation for the rest of the period. At the time of this writing, the Bz remains northward. As always, a sustained southward Bz is what opens the door for the strongest auroral displays.

Earth’s magnetic field

Over the past day, Earth’s magnetic field reached G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels (Kp 5), driven by the arrival of the June 26 CME. At the time of this writing, the Kp index sits slightly below level 2.