UPDATE OCTOBER 9, 2011 The predicted brief meteor storm for October 8 did occur. Look here for more about peak rates in the 2011 Draconid meteor shower: Draconid meteor shower was a winner!
Canadian astronomer Paul Wiegert announced earlier in 2011 that the annual Draconid meteor shower might produce a brief meteor storm of 1,000 meteors per hour on October 8, 2011.
He said the 2011 Draconid outburst could be expected to occur between 17 and 18 UTC on October 8. This translates into between noon and 1 p.m. Central Daylight Time on October 8 in the U.S. – daylight in North America. Because this shower’s radiant point in the constellation Draco is so far north on the sky’s dome, the shower will be visible primarily in the northern hemisphere. Plus Draco is highest in the sky during the evening hours. Thus the best locations from which to view the shower – according to Wiegert’s May-June 2011 prediction – should be Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East.
How do I translate Universal Time to my time?
The shower is expected to continue to produce meteors, albeit it at a reduced level, into the North American evening of October 8. So North Americans might still have a chance to see the meteor shower.
A shower of 1,000 meteors per hour would be spectacular indeed. Woot?! Not yet.
Wiegert admits that meteor predictions are not ironclad. He said:
… you never know. Meteor showers are as difficult to predict as rain showers. The Draconids have surprised us before, and they may do so again. I’d encourage anyone outside on the night of October the 8 to look to the northern skies, just in case.
There is another major factor. The moon will be in a waxing gibbous phase on October 8. It will be in the sky – large and bright – when the sun goes down on October 8 as seen from around the world. As all meteor-watchers know, a large bright moon will drown all but the brightest meteors in its glare. That means the predicted rates of 1,000 meteors per hour will be severely diminished by the moon, no matter where you are on Earth.
The Draconid meteor shower has produced storms in the past. In 1933 and 1946, the Draconids produced “meteor storms” where shooting stars were produced at rates of 10,000 per hour or even more. Other less dramatic outbursts — where the meteor counts nonetheless ran into the hundreds per hour — occurred in 1952, 1985, and 1998. Normally, though, the Draconids are a weak shower producing perhaps 10 meteors per hour.
Let’s talk a moment about Paul Wiegert, the lone astronomer who made this prediction. Wiegert is an astronomer at University of Western Ontario. His specialty is solar system dynamics. In other words, he conducts numerical analyses of the way objects in our solar system move. He says he likes working with smaller bodies particularly: asteroids, comets and meteoroid streams. He made his announcement about the 2011 Draconids at the Canadian Astronomical Society (CASCA) meeting of professional astronomers in Ontario May 20-June 2, 2011.
Is the prediction credible? Yes, certainly, as predictions go. This is a good year to watch the Draconids!
A meteor during the peak of the 2009 Leonid Meteor Shower. Image Credit: Navicore
How to view the Draconid shower
This meteor shower really favors the northerly latitudes, but that’s not to say the Draconid meteors can’t be seen from the northern tropics.
Wherever you may reside worldwide, the best viewing of these meteors will probably be at nightfall and early evening on October 8. That’s because that’s when the radiant point for the shower – in the constellation Draco the Dragon – will be highest in the sky for the night. All other things being equal, the most meteors tend to fall when the the radiant point is highest in the sky. North of about 35 degrees north latitude – the latitude of Memphis, Tennessee – the radiant is actually circumpolar. Circumpolar means that the radiant stays above the horizon all night long. So northerly latitudes are definitely favored for the Draconids.
Locate Dragon’s eyes and radiant point for Draconid meteors
Even so, the radiant will fall downward during the night and reach its low point close to dawn, as seen from all points in the northern hemisphere. Generally, you see few – if any – meteors when the radiant of the shower falls close to the horizon. However, if the Draconids should burst into storm during the predawn hours (that’ll be in Asia and possibly Alaska on October 9, if the prediction holds), you might not see an abundance of meteors but you may see some earthgrazers – unusually bright and long meteors that go horizontally across the sky.
However, nightfall and early evening on October 8, 2011 will probably provide the greatest number of meteors. At this time, the waxing gibbous moon will be rather low in your east to southeast sky and casting long shadows. Sit in the shadow of a barn or hedgerow of trees, though with an otherwise open view of sky. This should help darken the night for meteor watching.
Comet Giacobini-Zinner spawns the Draconid meteor shower
Like most meteors in annual showers, any fiery Draconid meteors we see streaking across a dark night sky actually started out in a meteoroid stream in space – a river of icy, rocky debris – left behind in the orbit of a comet. The comet that spawns the Draconid shower is named Giacobini-Zinner. Known for over 100 years, this comet takes about 6.6 years to orbit our sun once.
Comet Giacobini-Zinner was the first comet to be examined by a spacecraft, when in 1985 the International Cometary Explorer flew through its tail, passing approximately 4,847 miles (7,800 km) from its nucleus.
A comet’s tail can extend for millions of kilometers in space, but any spectacular display of meteors on October 8 does not originate from the comet’s tail. It originates from the much-smaller comet nucleus, or core. Essentially an ice asteroid, the frozen comet nucleus partly evaporates when its orbit brings it close to the sun. At this time the comet’s tail, which is composed largely of water vapor and chemically related species, grows in size and may achieve naked-eye visibility from Earth. The vaporization process also releases copious quantities of small rocks and dust because the nucleus is far from pristine ice: it is more like a dirty city snow-bank after a long winter.
The solid rocky material produced by a comet continues to orbit the sun after its release. At this point, it has become a meteoroid stream in space. If the orbit of the meteoroid stream intersects Earth’s orbit – at a time when Earth is nearby – bits of cometary debris burn up in our upper atmosphere and produce a meteor shower. Particles no larger than a pea and which burn up at altitudes of 62 miles (100 km) are easily noticeable from the ground; in fact, this describes most meteors visible to the human eye.
Bottom line: The 2011 Draconid meteor shower might produce a meteor storm of 1,000 meteors per hour on October 8, 2011. Europe, North Africa and the Middle East are favored, but peak rates for the shower might extend into North America on the evening of October 8. There will be a large, bright moon in the sky. Its light will diminish the shower. But go outside and look anyway!
[...] Astronomer predicts dramatic Draconid meteor shower for October 2011 Good news. The Draconid meteor shower could deliver 1,000 meteors per hour on October 8, 2011. Bad news. The moon will be in the way. Read more on EarthSky [...]
[...] this year, but it might be worth getting out to take a look. Usually a minimalist shower, 2011 has been predicted to have an unusually high peak number, possibly even 1,000 per hour. Bad art for the Draconid 2011 [...]
So excited! We live in Florida, so we’re taking our daughter, Sydney, to Salt Springs to camp. She’s never even witnessed a shooting star before, so this will be very exciting for her. She’s 11…we are very excited for her and can’t wait to see this unbelievable phenomenon!!! Hope you all enjoy it! If anyone has any tips or advice for the best viewing spots for us (we live 20 minutes west of St. Augustine, FL, near Daytona Beach…) we’d really appreciate it! Thanks!!! :)
Hi Pamela! I saw your comment on EarthSky. I’m an amateur astronomer & try to watch all meteor showers of the year. There is almost a meteor shower every month of the year so even if this months shower doesn’t turn out well you can just google “meteor showers for 2011″ and many site will pop up tell you when the shower’s are. The best way to see a meteor is to make sure you are away from light pollution. In otherward’s in an area that is pretty dark. If you live in town (especially a city) your chances of seeing a meteor are lowered. So the best thing to do is make sure you are out of town to view the shower. In or near towns only the most brightest meteors can be seen so if it does turn out to be a storm 10/8/11 u may only end up seeing a couple meteors an hour if u are in town and mayb none by a city. Make sure there are no lights on around u and carry a flash light that has a red filter so it only shows red light. It takes about 20 for a person’s eyes to become dark adapted and the stars will really pop out then! You can have a regular flashlight with you but a red flash light doesn’t affect your eyes adaption to the dark. That’s if you are in a really dark area and think you need a flash light but then again it’s not that big of a deal if you are away from bright towns or cities. Bring a blanket, mayb some chairs, drinks & snacks and enjoy looking up! Laying on a blanket is best that way you have more of the sky in view and your neck won’t hurt so much! Also during a meteor shower not all meteors will shoot out from around the radiant (area of the sky where most meteors are expected to come out from. In this case the constellation Draco.) so there’s a good chance you will see a meteor come from any area of the sky. So when you go to watch the meteor shower or possibly storm (we’ll see) the most important thing is to make sure there are now lights shining your way. If there are lights around make sure you’re in an area that will block that light and also the moon light. I live in a town in Indiana and although there is alot of light pollution (and gets worse every year) I should still be able to see the brightest meteors. In fact you can see some meteors tonight! Tomorrow is just when the shower is at its peak and the storm is predicted. Also on any given night there is a chance you can see a meteor (shooting star) you just have to be away from light and have PATIENCE! Make sure your daughter makes a wish with the first meteor she see’s too! You never know, this experience you open up a whole new interest for her and the next thing you know she may be wanting telescopes and then wanting to become an astronomer just like I did when my dad took me outside during a meteor shower 30 years ago! Now I have to giant telescopes! I was once in a local astronomy club and came VERY close to going to college to become an astonomer but changed my mind due to the amount of mathmatics you need to be very good at and that’s my worst subject! Anyways, have patience and enjoy your time with your daughter. It could end up being a very special time for her and I congradulate you for wanting to spend some good quality time with her. Oh, also bring some binaculars because there are alot of spectacular things you can see with just a set of binaculars! Just scan the sky slowly with them and find out what you can see. There are alot of Open Clusters (Many stars grouped together) that you can see with binaculars that are very pretty to look at especially with all the different colors of stars that you may see in them. So even if you live in town look up at any given night you just may see a shooting star! In fact, just last week I was outside around midnight and saw 5 shooting stars in the same area of sky in probably less than 10 minutes! Now that was a rare, especially on a night where a meteor shower isn’t going on but it is possible! The next night I saw one in 5 minutes and a couple nights later saw another! So you never know! Have fun and may this shower turn into a storm! I have never seen a meteor storm so I’m really hoping I will see many meteors in less than an hour. Like they said this shower is usually a small one with only 10-12 meteors an HOUR and that’s if you happen to see them! So lets pray for a spectacular show!
[...] One astronomer has even predicted that this year will be extra special. Earlier this year, Canadian astronomer Paul Wiegert, predicted that this years shower “might produce a brief meteor storm of 1,000 meteors per hour on October 8th” [...]
Im in th nz, wud I be able to see any, missed perisiod cos of weather, Saturn was awesome last 2 weeks tho.
[...] http://earthsky.org/space/astronomer-predicts-dramatic-draconid-meteor-shower-for-october-2011 [...]
Wait a minute, u said the shower came from Comet Giacobini-Zinner tale.. but why when i check at NASA JPL diagram, the comet location now between venus and mercury? please advice.
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=Giacobini-Zinner&orb=1
Rauna,
When a comet passes close to the sun, it warms up and releases debris (bits and pieces) into its orbital stream. It’s the debris from Comet Giacobini-Zinner – not the comet itself – that bombards the Earth’s upper atmosphere and burns up as Draconid meteors.
Bruce
[...] [Earth Sky] [...]
[...] [Earth Sky] [...]
How far north is the moon? I mean the sun has already set for the winter at the NP and for about a dozen degrees south of the NP. So if the moon is far south in its orbit, the best place to view would be N Greenland or Spitzbergen. Of course the harbest moon means the moon is N in its orbit; but I don’t know about the gibbous moon.
This will be a very close call i pray it is only that. Discovered on December 28, 2005 by Robert McMillan
of the Spacewatch Program A potentially hazardous Asteroid known as 2005 YU55. This Asteroid some what
Large 400 meter-sized type – C, will pass by the Earth right between our moon and Earth.
On November 8, 2011.
The people on Earth have not seen a Asteroid of this size in advance. One this big Has not impacted Earth
in over at least 4 thousand years. Most Objects that have a diameters over 45 meters or 147.637 ft
strike the Earth approximately once every thousand years or so. Lying flat everything for hundreds of miles.
Like the TUNGUSKA 1908 SIBERIA, RUSSIA CRASH OR Tunguska Explosion. This one did not even hit the Earth with
its full Impact, it burst high in the air above the ground plowing it apart into many smaller parts. Making
thousands of very deep holes in the Russian forests. Many of them in dense forest far from any roads or towns.
One 400 Meters 1,312.3 ft in diameter like this one would if impacted Earth on land would darken all of
the Earth not for just days but much longer. It would change the weather not seen on Earth in over thousands
of years a massive climate change to say the least.
The World and NASA will watch this one very closely.
The Lord’s Little Helper
Paul Felix Schott
[...] For more information check out this interesting article by EarthSky: http://earthsky.org/space/astronomer-predicts-dramatic-draconid-meteor-shower-for-october-2011. [...]
i saw it and i live in trinidad. we actually saw 3 shooting stars the first one was like a comet… so i decided to look up that night and wow it was supposed to happen and i saw it….
[...] showers, which originate in the Draco the Dragon constellation, was sadly expected to produce a record 1,000 meteor sights every hour. But you probably won’t see any of that. Besides the moon, [...]
hi my rukmina humagai nice pic i like ket