02-07-2009 - Human World

It’s very interesting to read the projection series of the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) of Washington D.C. on India’s still-growing population. PRB also hosted an online discussion on October 17, 2007 – about this subject. The online discussion was called Will India’s Population Reach 2 Billion?

Realize that 2 billion is a mind-bogglingly large number. The global population is now nearly 6.8 billion now, with 9 billion expected by 2050.

The question posed by the PRB is whether India will reach a population of 2 billion by 2100 … but realize that by then world population will probably have dropped, with some countries losing as much as 40% of their populations as soon as 2050, according to an earlier PRB study. So if India has a 2 billion population by 2100, does that mean this single land area – only 2.4% of the total land area on Earth – will have more than one-third of Earth’s inhabitants? According to the PRB’s recent report (pdf), India may or may not reach a population of 2 billion by 2100. So, clearly, we’re on speculative ground here. Still, the possibilities are … strange for the future world.

The CIA World Factbook reports that India has a population of approximately 1,166,079,217 people, according to a July 2009 estimate. It’s already the world’s second-most-populated country next to China. The earlier PRB study – described in this BBC article from 2004 – suggested that India will overtake China in population in this century. That would make India the country on Earth with the biggest population.

The culprits in this impending population boom in India are young Indians alive today, under the age of 15. This group represents something like 30% to 40% of people in India. Imagine them at child-bearing age – and their offspring to come – populating India’s future. In other words … tick, tock.

India now supports about one-sixth of the world’s entire population, and in 2009 India has 42 cities with a population over 1 million. That’s up from 32 Indian cities with over 1 million two years ago and it’s in contrast to only 9 cities for the U.S. with a population over 1 million. And, again, India’s inhabitants and their cities occupy only 2.4% of the world’s land area, a land area that is hemmed in on top by the mighty Himalayas.

Carl Haub of the Population Reference Bureau answered questions about India’s population online. He pointed out that India’s population is being controlled somewhat now, since a population policy instituted in 1952. He said that, in most Indian states, the child-bearing rate for women is now less than 3 children. But there is still a large rural population in India, and Haub said ” … sadly, many women in rural areas have little say on their own childbearing.”

With increasing population, India’s demographics are destined to change. The population should shift increasingly into cities, as has happened elsewhere on Earth. A more urban world is a less populous world, since children are not needed to work on farms.

Among other things, Haub said:

Societies in the south of India are very different from the north.

Son preference is deeply-rooted for reason of support in one’s old age and to officiate at one’s funeral.

Providing really effective reproductive health information and services in the villages, trying to involve men, and providing non-agricultural jobs in certain states should help fertility rates drop.

India’s fertility rate is actually declining now, although slowly.

By the way, don’t forget that India is not far behind China now in having the world’s largest population, with the U.S. is a distant third. India and China both have populations of over a billion already. The U.S. population is just over 300 million. When will India overtake China in leading global population? No one knows, of course, but many online sources seemed to agree it could happen by 2050, or sooner.

The portrait of India’s burgeoning population seems very poignant to me partly because, in recent years, I’ve become a big fan of novels from India. If you haven’t read A Suitable Boy by Vikram Seth or A Fine Balance by Rohinton Mistry, you should. Almost as deeply as if you had visited, these works of fiction reveal an emotional quality to India, a quality of color and tradition, quiet humor and passion, ancient gods, family, a stratified society where rich, middle class and poor people still seem to encounter each other often.

Maybe that’s because India is so crowded.

Picture credits: Mosaic by Flickr user foxypard4.

Population map of India from Wikipedia Commons.

Read more from PRB:

Will India’s Population Reach 2 Billion?

Written by Deborah Byrd

19 Responses to “Will India’s population rise to 2 billion?”

1. World Population says:

   January 29, 2008 at 8:44 pm

   There have alwys been rich and poor people alike, now there is a middle class.

   http://img250.imageshack.us/my.php?image=richaveragepoorcs3.png

   Reply
2. india s population says:

   May 2, 2008 at 1:47 pm

   [...] answered questions about India??s population online last week. He pointed out that India??s …http://blogs.earthsky.org/deborahbyrd/bizarre/102197/will-indias-population-rise-to-2-billion/’35% of India’s population is under 15!’… it India’s family planning programme, says the Professor [...]

   Reply
3. deborahbyrd says:

   May 25, 2008 at 4:27 pm

   Dave, I simply have faith in the human species. Humanity has the technology now to look fairly closely at nearly everywhere at once on our planet. We are connected. I just believe that knowledge of each other and ourselves is power … and that human intelligence will have a (slight) edge over human ignorance.

   Reply
4. TheHit Lerman says:

   August 17, 2008 at 6:18 pm

   Hi All,
   If India’s population reaches 2 billion, I would imagine the india’s landmass would not be able to sustain the weight on indians, thereby spliting off from himalayas and start to sink into the great indian ocean. This may cause Tsunami on either sides of Indian ocean. This can have a global impact. Other possibility, As population approaches 1.5 billion and surges at night over night due to busy indians at work, there would serious shortage of food and water. The whole massive population exodus will take place from south to north asia, just like a wilder beast buffalo migration in africa. Just a imaginary thought.

   Thanks,
   TheHit Lerman

   Reply
   • Setu Madhavan says:

     September 5, 2009 at 3:32 pm

     Hey ignorant and arrogant American,

     (I know I am wasting words here when I write ‘ignorant American’ – either ‘ignorant’ or ‘American’ should suffice. Ditto with ‘arrogant American’. But anyways…)

     Dont shed your crocodile tears over Earth’s landmass increasing because of increasing human population! Is that what they teach you in American schools? (And then you complain when Indian and Chinese Engineers come to the US to run your country. Moron, I have been struck by the inadequacy of the American education system. Workers at check-out counters in Malls/ Walmarts and grocery stores across America are INCAPABLE of mentally computing the change to return to a customer (God help them if the electronic register breaks down on them!) Happens all the time. Pay them 10 dollars when you make purchases totaling 6 dollars, and the American worker is simply UNABLE to compute that 10 – 6 = 4, and return 4 dollars, without the electronic register displaying the right change!!!)

     Stop lecturing us Indians. You Americans with 300 million people contribute 25% to global warming emissions /climate change, so worry about the damage your culture is causing the planet.

     (As a side note, its so difficult to keep track of the terms ‘global warming’, ‘climate change’ etc, as they change in the blink of an eye. Just when the Americans wanted India and China to bear the burden of ‘global warming taxes’, cities began recording the coolest temperatures ever, embarrassing the American ‘climate change’ imperialists. So quitely ‘global warming’ gets dropped, and it becomes ‘climate change’. So now, hot or cold, you cannot dispute the ‘climate change’ hullabaloo…unless day after day it is the exact same temperature world wide. LOL..did you watch how the Indian Federal Minister tore your beloved Hillary Clinton a new orifice, in the press conference in India where he unequivocally criticized Hillary for suggesting that India and China pick up the tab for global warming because India emissions are ‘increasing’. Yes, he replied, India’s share of the global warming emmission is less than 2%, where as the US has been clocking around 25% of the world total for a long long long time. to which she retorts, ‘But India’s share is growing alarmingly’ . He corrected her fake stats and asked her to stop hyperventilating with lies…India’s emissions have been growing from ‘less than 2%’ to ‘less than 2%’.)

     So what is the real reason behing the American crocodile tears over India’s emmission stats? To one way or another fetter India and China with taxes to make Indian and Chinese businesses less competitive.
     (like the British East Indian company levied to kill Indian business as a prelude to colonizing India, as did European colonists in China ahead of ‘Cutting of the Chinese melon’ among themselves, and public beheading of Chinese young men who volunteered to physically ‘box’ out the scheming westerners….’Boxer rebellion’ anyone? Well, I doubt it gets taught in American schools, given the (absence of)general awareness in Americans that I am dumbfounded by every day here in the US.)

     Long story short…please wipe off your crocodile tears. We Indians know so well, how badly your hearts weep for the Indians and Chinese. Thank you for your concern, but we can take care of ourselves.

     I know the moderator Deborah may not like to see me, an Indian, talking back to an American, as evidenced by her indulgent smile to your scurrilous remarks deprecating Indians.

     Reply
     • Deborah Byrd says:

       September 5, 2009 at 4:47 pm

       Dear Setu, you are right. My smile was inappropriate. I deleted that smile, but I also deleted your response to it. I don’t allow people to label other people as ‘idiots’ in my blog.

       I wrote this post about India’s population to learn more about India, and also to help others in the U.S. learn more about it. Yes, we in the U.S. are ignorant of many things. This post is an attempt to shed some light on one of those things.

       Thanks for dropping by.

       Deborah

       Reply
5. Devashis says:

   January 20, 2009 at 1:37 am

   Thank you guys.I got a lot of informations regarding this topic.Thanks again

   Reply
6. RAJI says:

   April 28, 2009 at 12:04 am

   India is an over-populated country as we all know.Let’s take it in the positive way. If we improve or try to improve the skills of each and every indian, then the country will have enough human resources to improve its economy.It all depends on not the quantity but th quality of the people of a country

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   • Deborah Byrd says:

     September 5, 2009 at 4:49 pm

     RAJI, the same is true of us in the U.S.! Thanks for your message.

     Reply
7. Jim says:

   September 16, 2009 at 7:19 pm

   I hope India thinks very hard about conservation.

   Reply
   • Deborah Byrd says:

     September 16, 2009 at 7:40 pm

     Jim, oh, they are. They are. We hear a lot about various scientific efforts in India … I believe there’s an active science community there, hard at work to solve the challenges.

     Reply
8. Brad says:

   October 27, 2009 at 7:59 pm

   Typo on the above graphic. India has just over 1 billion, not million. Unless I’m reading that incorrectly.

   Reply
   • Deborah Byrd says:

     October 27, 2009 at 8:08 pm

     Hi Brad, yes, I think maybe I need to adjust that sentence. It should say, “India now has 42 cities that each have a population over 1 million. That’s up from 32 Indian cities two years ago with million+ populations … and it’s in contrast to only 9 U.S. cities.”

     Is that what you meant? Thanks for the catch.

     Deborah

     Reply
9. majid says:

   November 16, 2009 at 4:33 am

   find my frend

   Reply
10. SK says:

    February 6, 2010 at 11:12 pm

    Setu’s comments rock! More power to you.

    Reply
11. Gurpreet Bal says:

    February 9, 2010 at 1:53 am

    Deborah, You won’t find a single renowned statistician anywhere who deny the potential India and China hold in Acumen irrespective of the field. We have the finest of brains COMING through our generations, unlike those of US & others whose youth holds little promise in terms of Intelligence. Its India who boasts an Economy growth of 7.2% in 2009 when the whole world’s economy is left in ruins. Like the most developed countries of today, our progress is based on our hard work and not on how much wealth we looted from other countries through Imperialism. Google the biggest economy by 2020 and the brightest of brains agree to the fact that this century belongs to India and China. For centuries we were plundered of our wealth by the non-asians And you know what the best part is ‘Not any more’.

    Reply
    • Deborah Byrd says:

      February 9, 2010 at 8:36 am

      Gurpreet Bal, thank you for these comments. Yes! My belief is that India has always been a mighty force in the world, thanks to its rich culture. For example, although I’m an American, every day I practice a form of yoga from India, and it enriches my life very much. In this, I’m the same as many people throughout the world.

      In the coming years, the growing population in India will surely mean – as you say – that a huge percentage of the finest brains in the world reside there. India will be a force!

      Thank you,

      Deborah

      Reply
12. Rohan Sharma says:

    February 10, 2010 at 5:04 am

    It is true that India\’s population will surely increase in the coming years. But I don\’t not see this only as a \”positive\” factor being a Doctor. More people just doesn\’t mean more brains to work but more mouths to feed, more jobs to create, more pressure on natural resources and health care and the need for infrastructure to manage the ever increasing population. Although I do find supportive comments for India encouraging, I do not see the reason to not appreciate the progress made by already developed countries. India is still at no. 142 on HDI. To move up in the list we will require action, not words. We tend to magnify our achievements while shying away from our shortcomings like corruption, poverty, women and children problems, justice and infrastructure. We have a difficult journey ahead. It was the duty of Indian men to protect this country from the invaders whether Muslim or British in which they failed. I don\’t see any point crying now on how they robbed us.

    Reply
    • Deborah Byrd says:

      February 10, 2010 at 8:54 am

      What you’ve described here is true in many countries. Even in developed countries, there is a race going on between increasing population, pressure on natural resources, health care and the need for infrastructure. I’m nearly 60. When I was 20, the world had half as many people as now. We used to say, “Yes, there will be more people, but there will also be more smart people.” That has turned out to be true. Consider this wonderful Internet that is connecting us. It has been simply amazing to watch the progress. In my article above, I was trying to express my amazement over the population growth in India. A large percentage of the world’s population will be in India – at least according to the projections of experts – by the end of this century. I’m hopeful for India and for all of us, throughout the world. But, yes, there are many profound challenges.

      Thank you for speaking in my blog.

      Deborah

      Reply