Sun

Sun news: Near M-flare while waiting for sun-stuff to arrive

Posted by

C. Alex Young

and

Armando Caussade

and

Raúl Cortés

and

June 29, 2026

Sun news June 29: A near M-flare while waiting for CME

Today’s top story: The sun maintained a steady drumbeat of moderate activity over the past 24 hours. We saw 16 C flares, including one that was nearly an M (moderate) flare: a C9.5 (common) from sunspot region AR4475, fired at 21:17 UTC last night. Meanwhile at Earth, we’re awaiting the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that was fired late on Friday. This burst of sun-stuff is expected to reach us tomorrow, bringing the potential for G1–G2 (minor to moderate) geomagnetic storms. Plus, a second slower CME from June 27 may follow late on July 1 or into July 2, potentially extending unsettled conditions and keeping aurora watchers on alert.

Past 24 hours of sun news

(11 UTC June 28 – 11 UTC June 29)

Flare activity

Over the past day, solar activity held at low to moderate levels. In total, the sun fired 16 C-class flares.

Strongest flare: C9.5 from AR4475, peaking at 21:17 UTC on June 28.
Other notable flares: A C8.7 from AR4479 at 21:55 UTC on June 28, a C8.1 from AR4479 at 8:06 UTC on June 29 and a C6.6 from AR4479 at 7:40 UTC on June 29.
Lead flare producer: AR4479 topped the list with 9 of the 16 flares, including three above C5.0. Meanwhile, AR4478 contributed 3 flares, AR4477 added 2 low-level events and AR4475 contributed 2 flares including the period’s strongest.

Sunspot regions

The Earth-facing solar disk shows at least 6 numbered active regions. Three carry notable magnetic complexity.

AR4478 (beta-gamma-delta) remains the most magnetically complex region on the disk. It showed slight growth in its intermediate area. And it remains capable of producing significant flares as it moves toward the center of the solar disk.

AR4479 (beta) was the most active flare producer by far, generating 9 C-class flares. And it continues to develop, acquiring additional magnetic complexity over the past day.

AR4475 (beta-gamma) continues to decline slowly, but it still produced the period’s strongest flare.

AR4477 contributed 2 low-level C-class flares. The remaining regions on the disk were mostly unchanged, showing simple magnetic configurations and remaining inactive or in gradual decline.

Blasts from the sun?

Several CMEs were observed during the period, but none of the newly detected events carry a significant Earth-directed component. The focus remains on two earlier CMEs now en route to Earth.

June 26 CME: the main event. This eruption, directed mainly southward but with an Earth-directed component, is expected to arrive tomorrow morning and trigger a G1 (minor) or G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm.

June 27 CME: This faint, slow CME from the area around AR4475 is harder to model. A very low-confidence estimated arrival sits around 8:00 UTC on July 1. Kp estimates range from 2 to 4, suggesting quiet-to-unsettled conditions if it arrives.

Past 24 hours in space weather

Solar wind

Solar wind conditions reflected the continued weakening of a coronal hole’s high-speed stream. Speeds decreased to normal levels by the end of the period. Meanwhile, the total interplanetary magnetic field stayed weak.

Bz and magnetic coupling

The Bz component showed no sustained southward excursions. As a result, Earth’s magnetic shield stayed firmly closed and aurora potential remained limited. But the arriving CME on June 30 could change that picture dramatically.

Earth’s magnetic field

Over the past day, Earth’s magnetic field stayed quiet (Kp 1–2). No geomagnetic storm conditions occurred. But that quiet is about to end. The June 26 CME is on its way.

What’s ahead? Sun–Earth forecast

Flare activity forecast

Forecasters expect predominantly low levels to continue. But the chance for M-class flares sits at 50% or greater. The primary candidates are AR4475, AR4478 and AR4479. And a slight chance (10%) for an X-class (strong) event remains, mainly from AR4478 and its beta-gamma-delta configuration. As AR4475 continues rotating westward, its chance to send sun-stuff our way will gradually diminish.

Geomagnetic activity forecast

June 29: Expect mostly quiet conditions as the coronal hole stream continues to fade. A slight possibility remains for a glancing blow from a June 22 CME early in the day. Conditions should return toward background levels for most of the day. But enhanced activity may begin developing late on June 29 as the June 26 CME draws closer. Kp 1–3 for most of the day, rising to Kp 3–4 by late evening.
June 30: The main event. Expect unsettled-to-active conditions with isolated G1 (minor) storm periods likely and a chance of G2 (moderate) conditions from the arriving June 26 CME. Auroras may reach Edinburgh, Seattle, Minneapolis and across northern Scandinavia and Canada.
July 1–2: Expect quiet-to-active conditions as the June 26 CME influence wanes. But the slow-moving June 27 CME may arrive late on July 1 or during July 2, potentially reinvigorating unsettled-to-active conditions. Coronal hole stream effects may also contribute to enhanced conditions around July 1.

The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with dark spots, each labeled. — This image shows sun activity – with the most active regions labeled – as of 5 UTC on June 29, 2026. Original image, without labels, via NASA SDO. Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams, with labeling by EarthSky. Armando Caussade posted today’s sun. Why are east and west on the sun reversed?

The sun in recent days

Earlier sun images

Sun images from our community

The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with a mottled surface. — View at EarthSky Community Photos. | Jim Militello in Tucson, Arizona, captured this filtered image on June 28, 2026. Jim wrote: “Hydrogen-alpha image of the sun with sunspots, active regions, filaments and prominences.” Thank you, Jim!

More sun images from our community

The sun, seen as four spheres in different bright colors. — View at EarthSky Community Photos. | Mario Rana in Hampton, Virginia, captured these filtered images on June 28, 2026. Mario wrote: “The sun in hydrogen-alpha, helium D3 and white light.” Thank you, Mario!

We sometimes feature sun images obtained using hydrogen-alpha filters. Read why.

Bottom line: Sun news for June 29, 2026: AR4475 fired a C9.5 (common) flare last night, almost reaching the M (moderate) flare threshold. Meanwhile, a coronal mass ejection could bring auroras tomorrow.

Submit your photos here.

View community photos here.

Posted

June 29, 2026

in

Sun

C. Alex Young

View Articles

About the Author:

C. Alex Young is a solar astrophysicist studying the Sun and space weather. Alex is passionate about sharing science with diverse audiences. This led him to start The Sun Today with his designer wife, Linda. First through Facebook and Twitter then adding an extensive website thesuntoday.org, the two work together to engage the public about the Sun and its role in our solar system. Alex led national engagement efforts for the 2017 total solar eclipse. He is the Associate Director for Science in the Heliophysics Science Division at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Armando Caussade

View Articles

About the Author:

Armando is known primarily as an astronomy educator, after 30+ years of extensive public outreach and 10 years teaching in colleges. As one of only a handful of science communicators in Puerto Rico during Comet Halley's last visit, he assumed a pioneering role starting in 1985 when science was just beginning to enter the collective mindset. Over the years, his work as a teacher, speaker and writer, inspired people to pursue interests in science and brought enduring change to Puerto Rican culture. After being accepted into the 2014–2015 Antarctic season of PolarTREC, Armando was assigned to the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, where in 2015 he successfully conducted 10 days of work at the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. His affiliations include Ana G. Méndez University, Cupey campus (2014 to 2021), the University of Puerto Rico, Aguadilla campus (2015 to 2017), NASA JPL's Solar System Ambassadors (2004 to 2006), and NASA Space Grant (2017 to 2019) where he served as an affiliate representative.

Raúl Cortés

View Articles

About the Author:

Raúl Cortés studied engineering at the Autonomous University of Nuevo León in Monterrey, Mexico, obtained a scholarship to continue his studies in Japan and after returning to Monterrey he got credits on MBA from the Graduate School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Faculty. He became a teacher at the University UANL teaching Math and Physics and dedicated the rest of his professional career to serve in engineering areas for USA, Japan and Germany based corporations. His passion for the skies go back to when he was a child, always intrigued about the stars and constellations and reading and researching about the matter. From 2010 on, he dedicated his attention to photographing the stars, constellations, the moon and the sun. Raúl's work on his photography has been published and posted on the ESC as well as in other platforms and has gained attention to be published by local Monterrey newspapers.