Sun

Sun news July 30: G3 geomagnetic storm watch

Posted by
C. Alex Young
and
Raúl Cortés
and
Armando Caussade
and
July 29, 2024

Sun news July 30: G3 geomagnetic storm watch

Today’s top story:  An early chunk of solar stuff hit us at Earth today. A G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm was observed with a threshold reached at 3 UTC on July 30. More G1-G2 (minor-moderate) geomagnetic storming up to a G3 (strong) is expected during the rest of the day. This is caused by a multiple coronal mass ejection (CME) hurled by the sun during July 28-29. Alert for aurora chasers. Bring those cameras out and take all those beautiful photos and share with us. Enlil model show at four CMEs blasted in the past days by our star. It created a cannibal CME, which is expected to reach Earth on July 31-August 1.  Get ready for some aurora-watching. This is certainly true for higher latitudes, but it could also be true for northern-tier U.S. states. Stay tuned for aurora forecast updates.

Last 24 hours:  Nine M flares, one of them an M8.7 flare and another one an M6.4 keep sun activity at  high levels in the past day. Solar flaring activity during our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today) was of 18 flares produced, nine Ms and 11 Cs.  The largest event of the period was an M8.7 at 12.55 UTC on July 29 by AR3762.  The complete breakout of M flares is:
•M1.6 at 12:22 UTC on July 29 by AR3762. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
•M8.7 at 12.55 UTC on July 29 by AR3762. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
•M4.3 at 14:46 UTC on July 29 by incoming region. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
•M6.4 at 19:57 UTC on July 29 by incoming region. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of Baja in Mexico.
•M1.1 at 21:00 UTC on July 29 by AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
•M1.7 at 1:03 UTC on July 30 by AR3762. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
•M1.2 at 1:25 UTC on July 30 by AR3762. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Philippine Sea.
•M1.3 at 1:32 UTC on July 30 by AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Philippine Sea.
•M1.5 at 6:29 UTC on July 30 by AR3766. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the northeast India.

AR3768 was the lead flare producer of the period. It blasted out five flares, including two Ms and the rest C flares. Two active regions on the solar disk, AR3766 and AR3768 show a large beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. AR3765 and AR3770 also gained a beta-delta magnetic complexity while AR3762 keeps a beta-gamma configuration. The rest of the 10 labeled active regions on its Earth-facing side show either an alpha or a beta. There is a newcomer that emerged just below the equator in the southwest quadrant now numbered AR3771.

Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 80%. The chance for X flares is 25%.
Next expected CME: An Earth-directed coronal mass ejection CME) associated with an M flare by active region AR3762 blasted at 16:06 UTC on July 29 may reach us by midday on August 1.
Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is unsettled at the time of this writing (11 UTC on July 29). A G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms as observed earlier today. Threshold reached at 3 UTC on July 30. More G1-G2 (minor-moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are expected during the whole rest of the day today including chances for a G3 (strong) late today. Conditions for G1-G2 geomagnetic storms may be extended thru tomorrow July 31. All this is due to the anticipated arrival and passage of multiple CMEs from July 27-28. Alert for aurora watchers. Good luck and clear skies!

The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with small dark spots.
This image shows sun activity – with the most active regions labeled – as of 0 UTC on July 30, 2024. Original image, without labels, via NASA SDO. Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams, with labeling by EarthSky. Today’s sun is posted by Armando Caussade. Why are east and west on the sun reversed?

Sun news July 29: KaBOOM! X1.5 flare and sun stuff on the way

Today’s top story: The sun released an X1.5 solar flare early this morning (2:33 UTC on July 29). This flare, along with many of the M flares over the past two days, has a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with it. CMEs from July 27 and July 28, mentioned in the video below, created a cannibal CME, which is expected to reach Earth on July 31-August 1. We await the space weather forecaster analysis of the CMEs for the past 24 hours, but there are more than likely a few more on the way to Earth’s vicinity. With all of these CMEs and their resulting (expected) geomagnetic storms, it’s a good time to get ready for some aurora-watching. This is certainly true for higher latitudes, but it could also be true for northern-tier U.S. states. Stay tuned for aurora forecast updates.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity is high. Solar activity increased slightly over the past 24 hours (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today). The sun produced an X1.5 flare, six M, and ten C flares. The largest event of the period was an X1.5 at 2:33 UTC on July 29. The complete list of X and M flares is:
• M1.7 on July 28 at 11:28 UTC from AR3762. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M2.6 on July 28 at 12:43 UTC from AR3767. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M1.7 on July 28 at 13:46 UTC from AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean.
• M1.3 on July 28 at 18:08 UTC from AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the U.S.
• M1.9 on July 28 at 20:25 UTC from AR3762. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean.
• X1.5 on July 29 at 02:33 UTC from AR3764. R3 (strong) radio blackout over East Asia.
• M1.0 on July 29 at 05:10 UTC from AR3768. R1 (minor) radio blackout over East Asia.
AR3762 produced the most M flares, with five. AR3767 produced four and AR3768 produced three. AR3763-65 and AR3770 all increased slightly in size. AR3762, 68, and 69 decreased sightly in size. AR3762 maintained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. AR3765 and 68 also gained beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. AR3764, AR3766, and AR3770 have beta-gamma complexities. The remaining have alpha or beta. The sun has ten sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disks.
Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 75%. The chance for X flares is 20%.
Next expected CME: Two Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery. The first CME was associated with yesterday’s M9.9 flare. This halo event was first observed in LASCO C2 at 2:24 UTC on July 28. It is expected to arrive mid-to-late on July 30. The second CME is expected to glance Earth on late July 31 to early Aug. 1.
Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on July 29). Periods of G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms are likely late today due to the possible arrival of a CME from July 27. Periods of G3 (strong) storming are likely on July 30, with G2 (moderate) storm periods likely on July 31, due to the anticipated arrival and passage of multiple CMEs from July 27-28.

Sun news for July 27-28, 2024. CMEs from July 26 and July 27 are combining to form a cannibal CME. That is, the 2nd, faster CME should overtake the first CME, and the combination might give Earth a grand display of auroras. Will it affect our power grids? Follow this link to learn about the solar flare HOTLINE.

The sun in recent days

The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with small dark spots.
This image shows sun activity, with the most active regions labeled, as of 0 UTC on July 29, 2024. Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams, with labeling by EarthSky.
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with small dark spots.
This image shows sun activity, with the most active regions labeled, as of 0 UTC on July 28, 2024. Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams, with labeling by EarthSky.
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with small dark spots.
This image shows sun activity, with the most active regions labeled, as of 4 UTC on July 27, 2024. Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams, with labeling by EarthSky.
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with small dark spots.
This image shows sun activity, with the most active regions labeled, as of 3 UTC on July 26, 2024. Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams, with labeling by EarthSky.
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with small dark spots.
This image shows sun activity, with the most active regions labeled, as of 0 UTC on July 25, 2024. Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams, with labeling by EarthSky.
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with small dark spots.
This image shows sun activity, with the most active regions labeled, as of 2 UTC on July 24, 2024. Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams, with labeling by EarthSky.
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with small dark spots.
This image shows sun activity, with the most active regions labeled, as of 3 UTC on July 23, 2024. Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams, with labeling by EarthSky.

Sun images from our community

The sun, seen as a large white sphere with small dark spots.
View at EarthSky Community Photos. | Patricio León in Santiago, Chile, captured this filtered image of the sun on July 29, 2024. Patricio wrote: “Sunspots continue evolving, AR3767 and AR3770 have organized their dark nuclei so the sun presents a central ‘massif’ of seven or eight big cores plus the outlying AR3769 at upper left. And more to come: a new group is rotating the 8 o’clock limb. It should be visible by tomorrow.” Thank you, Patricio!
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with small dark spots.
View at EarthSky Community Photos. | Jelieta Walinski in St. David, Arizona, captured this filtered image of the sun on July 28, 2024. Jelieta wrote: “This is our first year in Arizona and monsoon season is new to us. Still very cloudy in the morning and lightning and thunder in the afternoon. So I chose to capture the sun in the morning with presence of cloud. This is what I captured today July 29, 2024.” Thank you, Jelieta!
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with a mottled surface.
View at EarthSky Community Photos. | Mario Rana in Hampton, Virginia, captured this filtered image on July 28, 2024. Mario wrote: “Hydrogen-alpha image of the sun showing many sunspot regions and some nice filaments.” Thank you, Mario!
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with small dark spots.
View at EarthSky Community Photos. | David Hawkes in Sheffield, United Kingdom, captured this filtered image of the sun on July 26, 2024. David wrote: “Image shows a nice row of larger sunspots AR3763/4/5 and AR3762 in the central location.” Thank you, David!
The sun, seen as a large white sphere with small dark spots.
View at EarthSky Community Photos. | Jim Militello in Tucson, Arizona, captured this filtered image of the sun on July 26, 2024. Jim wrote: “This hydrogen-alpha image of the sun is showing active regions, numerous sunspots, filaments, and some small prominence.” Thank you, Jim!

Are you a fan of sun images? We invite you all to send us your beautiful recent photos of sunspots and auroras. We love receiving them and sharing them! And to those of you who’ve already posted a photo to our community page, thank you.

Submit photos here

View community photos here

Bottom Line: Sun news for July 29, 2024. Sun activity is high. An X1.5 flare came from the sun along with CMEs that are on their way to Earth. Aurora watchers get ready.

Posted 
July 29, 2024
 in 
Sun

C. Alex Young

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About the Author:
C. Alex Young is a solar astrophysicist studying the Sun and space weather. Alex is passionate about sharing science with diverse audiences. This led him to start The Sun Today with his designer wife, Linda. First through Facebook and Twitter then adding an extensive website thesuntoday.org, the two work together to engage the public about the Sun and its role in our solar system. Alex led national engagement efforts for the 2017 total solar eclipse. He is the Associate Director for Science in the Heliophysics Science Division at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Raúl Cortés

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About the Author:
Raúl Cortés studied engineering at the Autonomous University of Nuevo León in Monterrey, Mexico, obtained a scholarship to continue his studies in Japan and after returning to Monterrey he got credits on MBA from the Graduate School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Faculty. He became a teacher at the University UANL teaching Math and Physics and dedicated the rest of his professional career to serve in engineering areas for USA, Japan and Germany based corporations. His passion for the skies go back to when he was a child, always intrigued about the stars and constellations and reading and researching about the matter. From 2010 on, he dedicated his attention to photographing the stars, constellations, the moon and the sun. Raúl's work on his photography has been published and posted on the ESC as well as in other platforms and has gained attention to be published by local Monterrey newspapers.

Armando Caussade

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About the Author:
Armando is well known as an astronomy educator, after 30+ years leading extensive initiatives of public outreach and 10+ years teaching in colleges. As one of only a handful of Puerto Rican science communicators during Comet Halley's last visit, he assumed a pioneering role starting in 1985 when science was just beginning to enter the local mindset; over time his work brought meaningful change to the culture, inspiring people to pursue interests in science and technology. His affiliations include Ana G. Méndez University–Cupey, where in 2014 he spearheaded an 8-course extension program focusing on observational astronomy, the first ever in the island.

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