Will a super El Niño in 2026 bring record high temps?

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Will a super El Niño emerge this year?

Computer models have been indicating that a super El Niño could arrive this summer. NOAA says there’s currently a 1-in-4 chance. So it’s not a slam dunk. But, in this Northern Hemisphere spring, conditions are pointing that way. And, if it happens, we might see record high temperatures in 2026 and into 2027. 

Here’s why scientists think so. Some early-season cyclones in the western Pacific have helped push warm waters to the east. Now the subsurface equatorial Pacific is warmer than average for April. And scientists are reporting only a “paper-thin layer” of cooler-than-average waters at the surface. The April outlook from one of the major weather models – the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts – had every one of its more than 20 models predicting a strong El Niño by mid-June already. Yale’s ClimateConnections.org commented:

These are portentous signs of what may become a truly powerful El Niño event by later this year.

El Niño events often develop in spring and summer, with conditions peaking between November and January. In fact, El Niño got its name (Little Boy) because it generally peaks around Christmas.

So what is a super El Niño and what will it mean for our weather?

What is a super El Niño?

Let’s start with what a typical El Niño is. There are three types of conditions that can guide global weather: El Niño, La Niña and neutral. These three conditions make up ENSO, or the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. ENSO is a natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts between warm and cool phases. El Niño is the warm phase and La Niña is the cool phase. And these phases influence weather around the world, including rainfall, droughts and storms.

So an average El Niño occurs when warm water pools up in the eastern Pacific Ocean, around the equator. Once the temperatures reach 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 F) warmer than normal in the sea surface, an El Niño has formed. El Niño conditions can last for up to a year.

A super El Niño is a stronger event. Meteorologists often call it a super El Niño when the sea surface temperature anomalies peak at about 2.0° C (3.6 F) above normal. And currently, some models are calling for the coming El Niño to exceed 2.5° C (4.5 F) above the seasonal average by October.

You can follow along with NOAA’s El Niño watch here. The next update will be on May 16. As of April 9, 2026, NOAA said:

The possible outcomes range from ENSO-neutral to a very strong El Niño during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. The possibility of a very strong El Niño largely depends on the continuation of westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific throughout the Northern Hemisphere summer months, which is not assured.

Higher temperatures with El Niño

An El Niño usually brings higher global temperatures. The excess heat in the Pacific Ocean eventually enters the atmosphere. This causes warmer global temperatures. However, the rise in temperatures often has a lag time of a few months.

Some forecasters have already said that if a strong El Niño emerges, 2027 could become one of the hottest years on record. Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini told PBS:

A strong El Niño could plausibly push global temperatures to new record levels in late 2026 and into 2027.

This comes on the heels of the hottest March on record for the contiguous United States. NOAA said:

The contiguous U.S. average temperature in March was 50.85° F (10.4 C), 9.35° F (5.19 C) above the 20th-century average, marking the first time any month’s average has exceeded 9° F (5 C) above that baseline.

Other impacts from El Niño

In the summer, El Niño can dampen hurricane formation in the Atlantic. But it’s in winter that we feel El Niño the strongest. Often the jet stream will drop south, steering storms into California and Arizona and bringing much-needed rain. If the jet stream drops, then the southern and eastern U.S. can expect wetter and cooler weather. Meanwhile, drier weather could prevail in the northern U.S. and Great Lakes region.

Across the globe, El Niño brings drought conditions to places such as Australia, India and central Africa. And it can bring heavy rains to southern South America and eastern Africa.

Bottom line: Signs are trending toward a super El Niño to develop this summer. If it happens, we might see record high temperatures in 2026 and into 2027.

Via NOAA

Via Yale Climate Connections