The Atlantic hurricane season forecast for 2026 is out!

The Atlantic hurricane season forecast for 2026 is out!

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its official forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on May 21, 2026. Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. In 2026, NOAA predicts a below-average hurricane season. Specifically, NOAA is predicting 8-14 total named storms (this includes both tropical storms and hurricanes), 3-6 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes.

Major hurricanes are those that reach category 3, 4 or 5.

The major reason for the lower-than-average prediction is the emerging El Nino. In fact, NOAA says, we might see super El Niño conditions in the coming year. As of May 2026, NOAA is saying:

El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026-February 2027).

Why does El Niño mean fewer hurricanes?

El Niño conditions happen when warmer-than-average water pools in the eastern Pacific near equatorial South America. Normally, cold, nutrient-rich water rises from the deep ocean in this area. But El Niño blocks the upwelling of this cold water. So it disrupts marine life and local fisheries. And its effects cascade into Earth’s atmosphere, creating conditions like rainfall and temperature shifts in some parts of the world … and affecting wind shear.

It’s El Niño’s wind shear effects that have a major impact on hurricanes. Wind shear is the change in speed and direction of the wind. Specifically for hurricanes, what matters is the condition of wind shear at 5,000 to 35,000 feet above the ground.

In the Atlantic, El Niño can create strong wind shear, so strong it can rip apart storms or prohibit them from forming in the first place. El Niño often brings a downstream trough of flowing winds over the Caribbean Sea and western tropical Atlantic. It’s this trough that brings the wind shear that can disrupt hurricane formation or growth. Plus, El Niño can bring sinking air to the region, which is a sign of an area of high pressure. And hurricanes are, essentially, huge organized low-pressure systems.

While El Niño hinders the formation of strong hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, it helps hurricane formation in the Pacific. El Niño creates a ridge over parts of the Pacific, which favors conditions such as weaker upper-level winds and less vertical wind shear.

In conditions such as these, hurricanes can grow without obstruction.

Colorado State University’s forecast

Along with NOAA, Colorado State University (CSU) also releases a forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season each year. CSU typically releases its forecast earlier in the season, while conditions are still changing. But on April 9, CSU forecast a below-average hurricane season as well. The CSU forecast calls for 13 named storms, including 2 major hurricanes. CSU said at the time:

We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.

You can read CSU’s full forecast here.

Bottom line: On May 21, 2026, NOAA came out with the forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The forecast calls for a below-average season.