Heavy rains possible in southern United States

I have good and bad news for parts of eastern Texas. Good news: you might be able to eliminate the current drought conditions you have experienced over the past year after early next week. Bad news: you might see some heavy rains and flash flooding.

A series of systems are expected to develop and stall across the nation’s heartland within the next five days. Areas such as eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and western Mississippi could see rainfall totals exceeding five inches. If these rainfall totals add up, flooding could become an issue across these areas. Too much rainfall may accumulate in a short period of time.

Here’s the current drought indicator across the United States:

Here’s the drought outlook showing who could stay dry and who will receive rainfall:

The areas still experiencing drought conditions are primarily across western Texas and central and southern Georgia. Parts of eastern Texas and southeast Oklahoma have seen drought relief during the fall and winter months. That’s after experiencing one of the worst droughts seen in the region in years this past summer. If eastern Texas receives a lot of rain (exceeding two inches), the moderate to severe drought could be lowered/dropped.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, predicting rainfall totals, adds a bull’s eye of 8.4 inches of rain accumulating around the Louisiana, Texas, and Arkansas border. A large area could see five to seven inches of rain within the next five days. Here’s the graphic:

A cut off low across the southwestern United States and a high amplitude pattern will result in the beneficial rainfall across the area. In a way, there will be blocking across the western and eastern United States. This is due to a high amplitude pattern. It will result in heavy rainfall across the southern/central United States just along the Mississippi River.

It is important to note that rainfall totals seen above will likely change as we enter the weekend. Rainfall totals will likely have a range from three to six inches of rain. I think the biggest and most likely areas to see the heavy rain will be across Arkansas and Louisiana.

Bottom line: It will be a wet five days across eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi as a system practically stalls across these areas. Rainfall totals could range from three to six inches, with some areas receiving over seven inches in very localized areas.