Happy Groundhog Day! Will Phil see his shadow?

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The great weather prognosticator

Groundhog Day is a North American tradition, strongest in the U.S., present in Canada, and largely unknown elsewhere. We in the U.S. celebrate it every year on February 2, largely because of the big party that takes place every year in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, which calls itself the:

… original home of the great weather prognosticator, His Majesty, the Punxsutawney Groundhog.

According to legend, if it’s sunny on February 2, and if this shadow-seeking groundhog – known as Punxsutawney Phil – sees his shadow, we’ll see six more weeks of winter. If it’s cloudy and he doesn’t see his shadow, it’s said to mean an early spring.

In most years, members of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club hold public celebrations of Groundhog Day. Tens of thousands of people attend. Phil is said to have made his weather prediction in Punxsutawney since 1887! The February 2 celebration was popularized by the great Bill Murray movie Groundhog Day, in which a hapless weatherman relives Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney over and over and over again. Learn about Punxsutawney Phil here.

Meanwhile, Canada has its own groundhog, and an albino one at that. Wiarton Willie lives in Wiarton, Ontario, on the Bruce Peninsula near Lake Huron. He’s Canada’s best-known Groundhog Day forecaster and has been making predictions since 1956, a few years before Punxsutawney Phil became a media superstar. Nowadays, the Wiarton Willie Festival includes music, parades, and winter fun that draws thousands of visitors. Click here for more about Wiarton Willie.

Meanwhile, in the U.K. and Europe, celebrating Groundhog Day isn’t really a thing. But the roots of Groundhog Day stem from older European traditions like Candlemas Day (February 2), which used weather lore to predict the rest of winter. German immigrants carried that folklore to North America, where the groundhog became the star. Read more about the roots of Groundhog Day below.

How accurate is Phil?

Last year (2025), Phil made his prediction for an six more weeks of winter.

According to a 2025 post at Live Science, Phil’s success in forecasting is about 40%. It said:

Phil the groundhog has been forecasting the seasons on Groundhog Day at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney since 1887, but just how good is he at his job?

Not very, it turns out.

This year (2026), the forecast for Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, is calling for chilly temperatures and a cloudy day on February 2, with a chance of partial clearing later. Will Phil see his shadow this year?

Read more: Rating the groundhogs

Video: Groundhog Day QUIZ

Before reading further … test your Groundhog Day knowledge and skills in the video above.

The roots of Groundhog Day

So Phil is North America’s most famous weather predictor. But the seasonal traditions of this holiday go back a long, long way. The fact is, Groundhog Day is an astronomy holiday, whose roots are embedded in Earth’s yearly orbit around the sun. It’s what’s known as a cross-quarter day, a day approximately midway between a solstice and an equinox. Groundhog Day falls between the December solstice and the March equinox.

In modern times, the year’s four cross-quarter days are Groundhog Day (February 2), May Day (May 1), Lammas (August 1) and – the most sinister cross-quarter day because it comes at a dark time of year – Halloween (October 31).

The division of the year into segments is a common theme in human cultures. It makes sense because our ancestors were more aware of the sun’s changing movement across the sky. They had to be, since their plantings and harvests depended on it.

More Groundhog Day history

In the Celtic calendar, the year is also divided into quarter days (equinoxes and solstices) and cross-quarter days. These also appear on the neo-pagan wheel of the year. So, just as February 2 is marked by the celebration of Candlemas by some Christians, such as the Roman Catholics, in contemporary paganism this day is called Imbolc and is considered a traditional time for initiations.

The celebration of Groundhog Day came to America along with immigrants from Great Britain and Germany. The tradition can be traced to early Christians in Europe, when a hedgehog was said to look for his shadow on Candlemas Day.

Old rhymes and sayings

Try this old English rhyme:

If Candlemas Day be fair and bright, winter will have another flight. But if it be dark with clouds and rain, winter is gone and will not come again.

Or here’s another old saying:

Half your wood and half your hay, you should have on Candlemas Day.

In Germany, where a badger was said to watch for his shadow, the saying goes:

A shepherd would rather see a wolf enter his stable on Candlemas Day than see the sun shine.

A friend on Facebook said that, in Portugal, people have a poem about February 2 related to the Lady of Candles. Here’s the poem:

Quando a Senhora das Candeias está a rir está o inverno para vir, quando está a chorar está o inverno a acabar. [Translation: If Our Lady of Candles smiles (sun) the winter is yet to come, if she cries (rain) the winter is over.]

One final note. It’s supposed to be bad luck to leave your Christmas decorations up after Groundhog Day.

Bottom line: The predicted high for Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, on February 2, 2026, is 24 degrees F (-4 C), foggy and cloudy. Will Phil see his shadow? Happy Groundhog Day!