Tornado warnings issued today typically highlight the area of concern in a polygon (red box above) and contain information about the storm.
The National Weather Service (NWS) offices in Missouri and in the Wichita/Topeka, Kansas area will soon implement an experiment – a new three-tiered system – for how they issue tornado warnings to the public. They’ll try to test out the new warning system for this upcoming severe weather season starting in early April, 2012. The main goal is to provide accurate weather warnings and forecasts so the public can be better prepared and have plenty of lead time to take shelter. Will this experiment work? Will it be better than the present system? Will it help save lives? With 550 people in the U.S. killed by tornadoes in 2011 – and with January 2012 being unusually violent for tornadoes – these are important questions.
The new system will add three tiers of tornado warnings including a Standard Tornado Warning, a PDS Tornado Warning, and a Tornado Emergency.
Have you ever noticed how a majority of the tornado warnings that are issued typically state that “Doppler radar indicated a possible tornado” for such and such place? If a storm spotter or an emergency manager spots or sees damage from a tornado in sight, then the NWS will change the wording of the same warning claiming a tornado was spotted within that storm. Will the public react differently to a radar-indicated tornado or to a spotted tornado on the ground? Obviously, the public will have a more heightened sense of urgency if they knew an actual tornado was on the ground approaching their city.
Here’s what the NWS states about this experiment:
Beginning Monday, April 2, 2012, and continuing through November 30, 2012, select Central Region (CR) NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) will issue enhanced convective warnings. Severe Thunderstorm Warning (SVR), Tornado Warning (TOR) and Severe Weather Statement (SVS) products will be stratified into categories which distinguish extreme cases from base convective warnings. Additional enhanced wording will be included to convey information about associated impacts, specific hazards expected, and recommended actions, both within the bullet statements and as part of the tag line codes.
EF-4 tornado damage in Pleasant Grove, AL on April 27, 2011. Image Credit: Matt Daniel
In this system, we will likely see three tiers of tornado warnings:
1) Standard Tornado Warning: These warnings are the basic ones issued by the National Weather Service when radial velocities on radar indicate a possible tornado. Most of the time, these are the basic warnings issued by all offices across the United States.
2) Potentially Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Warning: If a PDS Tornado Warning is issued, then it means that the storm has a tornado on the ground that was spotted by a storm chaser or the public. These warnings are the second highest level that the NWS will issue.
3) Tornado Emergency: In a tornado emergency, a large tornado is on the ground producing a lot of damage and is headed towards a populated city. Tornado emergencies were issued back on April 27, 2011 when a supercell thunderstorm was pushing into Tuscaloosa, Alabama. A tornado emergency is the highest level of emergency on this scale.
Joplin tornado May 22, 2011
The Joplin, Missouri tornado on May 22, 2011 – which killed over 115 people – is one reason this new system will be tested. The community urged updated warnings. The National Weather Service also wanted more information out there for the public to consume, and so they are testing out these new warnings in spring 2012 to see how the system works. The National Weather Services that are testing this system will include St. Louis, MO (LSX), Springfield, MO (SGF), Kansas City, MO (EAX), Topeka, KS (TOP), and Wichita, KS (ICT).
Will the new tornado warning system work?
It sounds great, but I honestly think the new system has the potential to create more confusion, not less. There are so many people out there today who still do not understand the difference between a tornado watch and a tornado warning. What will make them understand what is now three categories of tornado warnings, instead of just two?
Will people react differently to a standard tornado warning versus a PDS tornado warning? Shouldn’t all tornado warnings be “potentially dangerous?”
Image Credit: NOAA Photo Library, NOAA Central Library; OAR/ERL/National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)
NOAA offers warnings so the media can send this information out through television, Internet, and radio. They are intended to be straightforward to remove confusion. With that in mind, I am not quite sure how this system will work out. I guess we will see come May and June 2012, when severe weather is likely across Missouri and Kansas.
Bottom line: The National Weather Services across Kansas and Missouri will add three tiers of tornado warnings including a Standard Tornado Warning, a PDS Tornado Warning, and a Tornado Emergency. Note: All other weather services in the United States will not use this three tier system and will simply use a tornado warning that will contain details about the storm in the warned area. The main goal is to provide accurate weather warnings and forecasts so the public can be better prepared and have plenty of lead time to take shelter. Will this experiment work? Only time will tell. I am all for better information and keeping the public safe. However, I am completely against adding confusion to the public. Will this create confusion for the public? What are your thoughts?
I absolutely agree. The standard warning is pointless. Anyone who lives in tornado alley can look at the sky and know that a tornado is possible.
What they really need to drive this home is something like: A deadly tornado is headed in the direction of Someville. It is very likely that people in this area are about to die. Don’t be one of them. Get your ass underground. EOM
I strongly agree that we need this better system, My family and I are from Joplin and last year in Feb. we moved to the state of Wa. and then in May the deadly tornado ripped right through Joplin. Even though i was miles and miles away i was still effected by this. That was my home, i was born and raised there. I cried for days just thinking about all those people suffering and losing all they had plus there kids and family, it broke my heart. All though all my family was okay, i felt like a piece of me was missing right along with all the dead and missing. We are moving back this summer and i’m glad there is a new, better system coming out to help keep my family safe. Thank you for everything your doing.
Personally, I don’t like the word ‘potentially’ on the second tier. Living in the Joplin area and growing up with tornados all my life has taught me many things. One of those lessons is that there are typically two types of people–those individuals that take the weather forecasts seriously and prepare or act and those that wait and see. Potential does not tell me that it is dangerous but that it might be dangerous in the future. I would rather see stronger, adrenaline causing announcement when it gets to this stage. If one waits until tier 3, a tornado emergency, time is more limited for those that wait and see. Just saying!
I’m more on Matt’s side on this. I agree that there is a need for major change in how warnings are issued but I’m not sure if this is the best idea. I think it definitely has potential to cause confusion. One thing that I think does work in giving the public an idea of the potential danger of a situation is Dr. Greg Forbes’ TorCon Index. I know, there are some weaknesses in it but one thing it does do well is communicate with the public how much of a risk is present to having a tornado in the area. The only problem is that is designed for large-scale areas that potentially could have tornadoes later on within a 12-24 hour period. For a number of reasons, I’m not sure if Dr. Forbes’ TorCon Index could be adapted to a smaller area at the time of the event. However, as the NWS learns more about forecasting tornadoes, I hope that they do come up with even better ways of issuing tornado warnings. I am convinced that the best solution would be some sort of simple numerical system that will communicate more clearly with the general public. But I’m just common folk. Coming up with better answers is what the educated are educated and paid to do.
How incredibly ridiculous. How much harder is it to comprehend tornado on radar or tornado is on the ground or tornado is going toward a city. Most people out there do not even know the difference between a tornado watch and a tornado warning today. Knowing a tornado can form anywhere people need to take ALL warnings seriously and take cover instead of video taping.