Tornado in Tushka, Oklahoma. Image Credit: NOAA
From April 25 to 28, 2011, a fierce and deadly storm system produced a total of 327 confirmed tornadoes in 21 states from Texas to New York, and even isolated tornadoes in Canada. Alabama was struck particularly hard. These April 2011 tornadoes killed at least 344 people people in the U.S. southeast, midwest, and northeast. Then – on May 22, 2011 – the deadliest single tornado since 1953 struck Joplin, Missouri, with 116 people now confirmed dead and over 1,000 people reportedly injured. EarthSky spoke to meteorologist Jeff Masters of weatherunderground.com shortly before the tornado struck Joplin. He explained some of the science that has caused these fierce 2011 tornadoes in the U.S.
In particular, he said, the location and strength of the jet stream played a role. Speaking of the April tornadoes in the U.S. southeast, he said:
The jet stream, which is that powerful river of air aloft over the country, turned out to be very strong this year. It had very high wind speeds in it. And it was moving over tornado alley, where we tend to get cold, dry air from Canada colliding with warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. The combination of those contrasting air masses, and then the very powerful jet stream, was just the perfect storm of conditions to make a lot of tornadoes.
Map of 2011 deadly tornadoes. Image Credit: NOAA
Is global warming making tornadoes more deadly? Masters told EarthSky that is less clear.
On the one hand, we would expect that a warmer climate would bring warmer temperatures and potentially warm moisture in the atmosphere, enhancing instability.
Instability, explained Masters, is what happens when large masses of cold air from Canada high in the atmosphere create updrafts, which can be up to 10 miles high. These unstable conditions can lead to deadlier tornadoes. But that’s not the whole story. Again, the jet stream plays a vital role, and climate change is expected to weaken the jet stream. Masters explained:
Climate change is expected to weaken the jet stream. And that’s a key ingredient for making tornadoes. You need to have a really strong jet stream that changes velocity and speed with altitude in order to put a shearing force on those updrafts, to get them spinning, so that they become tornadoes. So it’s unclear what’s going to happen in the end.
In other words, the verdict is still out on whether global warming will create more deadly tornadoes, and, at this time, there is no evidence that it will.
If global warming isn’t causing these deadly tornadoes, what is happening? EarthSky asked Dr. Masters just how unusual these 2011 springtime tornadoes have been. He said:
The last really bad outbreak like this was in 1974, when we had 148 tornadoes, six of them the strongest type of tornadoes that we have, the EF-5 tornadoes.
He also talked about how the spring 2011 outbreak of tornadoes compares with what scientists know has happened over the past 100 years.
Every 30 or so years, you do see a violent tornado outbreak like this one, where you get 10 or more of these strong, or even violent tornadoes that have wind speeds of over 150 miles per hour.
These outbreaks typically occur in the midwest, and in the southeast, like we saw in April 2011. The last really bad outbreak like this was in 1974, and that ended up killing about 315 people. What that says to me is that this 2011 outbreak was really remarkable.
Masters told us the when he looks back to last year, 2010, he sees some really remarkable weather and climatic conditions that have no precedent over the past 150 years of weather history. For example, he said:
Well, 2010 was tied for the warmest year on record, globally.
It had the most extreme circulation in the Arctic on record. And that extreme circulation allowed some cold air to spill southward, causing some of these incredible snowstorms that we had – for example, “snowmagedden” or two feet of snow in Baltimore. That extreme Arctic circulation also allowed some of the warmest temperatures ever observed in the Arctic to occur in the winter. We had kind of an upside-down winter in North America. Canada had its warmest winter on record, and driest, in 2009 and 2010. But the U.S. had its coldest winter in 25 years. Now that’s really strange.
Another weird thing happened in 2010. We had the wettest year on record, globally, over land areas. We had the quietest global hurricane season on record. Normally, we get about 92 tropical storms, globally. But in 2010 we had only 68 of these.
That speaks to me that the entire weather circulation of the atmosphere is doing some very unusual and unprecedented things. And that’s the kind of thing you would expect to observe if the climate were starting to transition to a new state. So I don’t think every year is going to be as extreme and wild as this one. But I think the odds of those kind of years happening in the future will be steadily increasing.
“Extreme tornadoes” May be global warming…Yeah right.
Here is a good read…Robust Science! More Than 30 Contradictory Pairs Of Peer-Reviewed Papers http://notrickszone.com/2011/03/30/robust-science-more-than-30-contradictory-pairs-of-peer-reviewed-papers/
i am not a religious person . but that you have so many tornados …. do you think its a ponishment from god becoz USA kills so many inosent people all over the world
thx
be safe
LOL! Are you serious? WE kill innocent people all over the world? We defend OUR people for all of the “innocent” people coming over here and killing us. GOD BLESS THE USA!
Well, yes you do. You had about 3000 deaths on 9/11 (and yes I was horrified then and
I’m descended for the Pilgrims themselves but not from US) There have been maybe
100 000 dead in Iraq and tens f thousands in Afghanistan. Most were just people living
a life. I don’t think it was a divine punishment, but if you think Jesus would approve you
are crazy.
yes it is true
If it was a punishment from God, don’t you think a tornado would have hit the Pentagon?
I hope we can get away soon from climate change denial and supernatural thinking. Both prevent us from dealing with real problems.
Well it’s too late Baby, …. ‘though we really did try to make it”….
When does denial turn into a mental illness?
When does superstition turn into a mental illness?
“No, No, No, this can’t be happening….No, No, God wouldn’t let this happen to his children.” I have been hearing this since Clinton first tried and gave up, and the events just keep getting more bizarre and more extreme. And now we have More radioactive fallout AND plans for 800 coal burning power plants. I say this whenever the occasion arises. Anyone under 30 year of age, I’m really sorry for you.
Well if your a religous person i challenge u to really look what the bible says. To many people think we die and go to heaven and god picks all he good ones. We are in the times of the devil my friends…this life is a test.as god intended in the beginning to live in an eden forever we chose this for ourselves lovers of death and corruption. Says in the bible bad angels were cast from the heavens to the earth..were almost all unders satans rule til the day of judgement. Honestly can’t wait god knows ill burst into flames for my sins but ill r.i.p. Knowing good people will only inhabit the earth.lmao happy armagedon eveyone it isn’t far. Anyone can see and feel something jus aint right.
[...] to my 12-minute interview on the historic April 2011 tornadoes for EarthSky.org, which aired on NPR earlier this month. I discuss how climate change might impact severe weather and [...]
Isn’t it amazing the first reply to this interview is a gobal warming denier with his own web site. His arguement of course against gobal warming is peer review papers that supposenly contradict each other. Another Joesph Gerbils propaganda trick; because someone doesn’t agree with your original premise it there fore makes the original premise false. Throw in “peer review” to give a touch of validity and we have “proof” that global warming doesn’t exist. Also invent a new “ad hominum” attack term by calling us global warming believers “Warmest” and hope it catches on with the wing nuts from the right and creationalists. I think that he could have come up with a better term like “Gobal Warmers” to give it more of a gobal conspiratist feel.
Excellent interview, Jorge. Thanks!
The belief in manmade global warming is as much of a religious cult as anything. Despite the “scientists” caught red-handed in supressing and manipulating data there are those who simply must believe. They call others “deniers” and even superstitious. Pot to kettle…come in kettle… If you truly believe the everyday actions of the average westerner is causing such climate change then you must live your beliefs…simply biking to work or drving a Prius wont do it. Get off the grid, give up any petroleum based ointments, eat raw, use zero fossil fuels, give up your wireless devices. Oddly i dont see any of these believers doing this. Take a look at what theyre spraying in the sky, that is easily viewable on a near daily basis but some will even deny what their own eyes can see. It is all very convoluted and “believers” are really deniers themselves because they choose to believe what is fed to them. If you think you cannot be deceived then that is the sure guarantee that you are or will be.
A perfect example of our inate blindness of our own bias is Greg points out an ad hominum attack then turns and does the same. He believes one thing, someone else believes the opposite, each reads what supports their belief.
I like the that you ask people to look at the sky i was told that what they are spraying from thoes planes is to create clouds and rain evan. One day i saw five of them flying over my houes eatch on a separate line. My Mother belives there is some cemical that makes men sterile in it. Some times you can see the stuff flouting arounf looks like spider webs.
@Eleven (and other “deniers”):
If you are really interested in understanding the science of global warming/climate change rather than blindly repeating/making up statements that are not true, read the blog:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/
where you can read why what you said in your post is terribly wrong and is a repeat of things, many of which have been PROVEN wrong for years, but the originators of these canards simply keep repeating them. So if you have never seen the basis for their falsehood, I hope you will take the time to learn the real science. If you know that the science is true but repeat the falsehoods (as many do), then you are what is called a troll, someone who jumps into any forum when this issue comes up, to spread disinformation on the subject. I cannot tell which from your post here.
So what about the proof that ant artica is melting Extreemly fast then anticipated. Gravity data collected from space using NASA’s Grace satellite show that Antarctica has been losing more than a hundred cubic kilometers (24 cubic miles) of ice each year since 2002.
can read about it here
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/20100108_Is_Antarctica_Melting.html
just the earth doing its thing and we are in the way
we live in australia and are watching closely. we are very sorry for the loss. can someone please explain to us} WHY CANT THERE BE A FORE WARNING OF THESE TORNADOS? WE GET WARNINGS FOR CYCLONES, WHAT IS THE DIFFERNCE BETWEEN THEM, WE ARE VERY INTERESTED TO KNOW ABOUT THE WARNING SYSTEM AND TIME FRAME?} Can someone please email us and tell us how it works with the alarm system and why. take care all.
I live in one of the most active tornado areas–I feel qualified to answer your question about warning systems. The warning systems are as good as we know how to make now–weather forecasters know when conditions are right but they cannot tell where one will form. A tornado can literally form on top of you and disappear nearly as quickly. Most are a few feet to a block wide and travel on the ground for very short distances. The monster that hit Joplin was half a mile wide and traveled for a few miles. It was a F5–A hurricane or a cyclone cannot be compared to a tornado like that–Joplin was warned but only a safe room or a tornado shelter was enough protection against a F5. Since the locale was flat, it just sat on the ground and traveled until it disintergrated. A few years ago Oklahoma was struck by such a one. The tornados we get in Arkansas are usually F4 or F5 but we are a hilly state and that usually keeps them hopping and relatively small and we still lost 4 people.
Finally, the best warning systems are the groups of storm chasers who are out whenever the conditions are right. Many lives are saved by the people out there in the storms looking for funnel clouds,
I have an ex wife and son up there can you tell me if a tyler schroeder or suanne norman are in the list of killed? thank you
Joe Bestardi ,of accuweather, says global warming played no role. They don’t call it “tornado alley”because it is picnic weather 24-7!
My dear Don:
I am not repeating anything, I am relating what I see in human behavior. I have read the science behind the global warming theory and I’ve read the science that calls it into question. I have to say I have not seen evidence that scientists who do not believe in global warming try to supress dissenting views. Face it, people (including both you and I) will lean towards and seek out research that supports our bias. That, and how people resort to terms such as “deniers” tells me there is no rational discussion occurring. It’s “my scientist is better then YOUR scientist.”
I have to ask once again, what the heck are they spraying in our skies? That I can see and know it’s not natural. When I point out such phenomenon while it is too warm for contrails and the substance is clearly spreading after being sprayed, and then people refuse to acknowledge it…now that is a denier.
I also must ask, if you believe in global warming have you completely converted to solar power? Have you stopped using all petroleum based products? Have you stopped procreating? And…exactly what “disinformation” did i supposedly spread? I did not provide links like you did. I did comment on behavior and about something I see in the sky nearly every day, and on a group who did manipulate data that is well documented in the media (no liable or slander cases occurred). If that’s spreading “disinformation” then we must be reading different dictionaries.
have you ever though about the earth axes have shifted,and if so wouldnt that bring colder air south clasing with hot air from the south creating the perfic storm,just saying
if the earths poles shifted we would have felt waitlessness for a couple seconds to a min
not un till 2012
I am from the south so many towns were hit on may 22 2011 by tornados and floods we lost lives, and so much more. I dont believe its globle warming. or the end of the time. Life was just pissed that night. If you want to hep text red cross to 90999 to give $10.00 to the joplin red cross. or there are so many other things you can do.
Hmmmm…no answer. Yeah, I don’t know what they’re spraying either or why. I don’t know why so many who are concerned about the environment either aren’t observant of this activity or ignore it. It sure has me concerned and curious. I’m Looking at some chemtrails right now, it’s Early June and definitely too warm for contrails. Why don’t environmentalists ever talk about this issue that is clearly observable? Is it too scary to contemplate, or are several just trolls who seek sites to spread disinformation? (see, that can work both ways…I truly hope that isn’t the case.) But we will know by the type of response, if any, this gets. If this person is into honest discussion then great, if they are afraid or part of an attempt to discredit honest discussion we will see a response that doesn’t address the question but diverts attention from it. Watch for subtle but various methods if that’s the case…then question why. If no response is given, then look up everyday and see if you see what I’m talking about. Then do your own questioning until you get a logical explanation. Please think for yourself in any situation, I don’t have all the answers, but I have many unadressed questions and am seeking logical answers, not pat responses.
i like to wath program of tornados.
i live in brazil.
i loveeee your programa.
slt
I wonder if Jeff is familiar with Nikola Tesla’s theories on weather control by heating up the ionosphere with projected electricy in a dry or arid region.He invented the Tesla coil and ac motor to make it possible to use the electricity to do so, and then patents were made using his ideas to start H.A.A.R.P(High frequency active auroral research project), which is run by the U.S. Navy and Air Force. They at least acknowledge that they are heating up the ionosphere, which protects earth from solar radiation.They also expanded their facilities in 2007.I think it is relevant to address this technology on weather experiments as part of these radically extreme weather patterns.