Sun news May 3: KABOOM X1.7 flare!!

Sun news for May 3, 2024: KABOOM X1.7 flare!! Auroras at Earth

Today’s top story:  Kaboom! The long awaited X flare was here. Sunspot region AR3663 in the northeast solar quadrant granted us with an X1.7 flare. The event occurred at 2:22 UTC on May 3. A strong R3  radio blackout was observed affecting an area over the Philippine Sea south of Japan. The X flare is the peak of strong activity observed in this active region along with its growth in extension and magnetic complexity. We had not seen an X flare since March 28 by AR3615. Today active region AR3663 is the only sunspot region showing a beta-delta configuration, that eventually lead to the registered X flare event. AR3663 is the absolute hero of the period, X flare and lead flare producer. It blasted out 13 flares during the past day, the mentioned X, an M plus 11 Cs. While all this occurred on the solar disk, at Earth shortly before, a an unexpected G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm.  Kp = 7 threshold reached at 17:59 UTC on May 2. The disturbance lasted for a couple of three hour period. Conditions for auroral displays were possible in northern latitudes as far south as Iowa and Oregon in US. Dombås in Norway reported strong disturbance.

Last 24 hours: Sun activity goes high during the past day after the production of an X flare  and three M flares. Between 11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today, the sun flaring production increased from 17 total flares during the previous period to 24 flares during our observation period: an X, three Ms flares and 20 C flares. The largest event was the above mentioned and for long awaited X1.7 flare from active region AR3663 at 2:22 UTC on May 3. An R3 (strong) radio blackout was observed affecting an area over the Philippine Sea south of Japan. This is a breakdown of the larger flares of the period:
M2.8 flare by AR3664 at 20:57 UTC on May 2. R1(minor)radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean east of Hawaii.
M2.7 flare by AR3664 at 0:15 UTC on May 3. R1(minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean west of Hawaii.
X1.7 flare by AR3663 at 2:22 UTC on May 3. R3(strong)radio blackout over the Philippine Sea south of Japan. (The largest)
M4.4 flare by AR3663 at 8:11 UTC on May 3. R1(minor) radio blackout over the Arabian Sea.

The lead flare producer of the period was active region AR3663 in the northeast quadrant, which produced 13 flares: the X, an M and 11 Cs. Closely behind sunspot region in the southeast AR3664 produced nine flares: two Ms and seven C flares. The sun currently has seven labeled regions on its Earth-facing side. There is a newcomer now numbered  AR3665.
Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 65%. The chance for an X flare is 15%.
Next expected CME:  Modeling and analysis are ongoing after flaring production and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) of activity observed by sunspots AR3663 and AR3664, in particular our attention focused on the X1.7 flare event. Up to the time of this writing, besides our report yesterday, previous analysis show no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on May 3). Late yesterday  a strong geomagnetic activity was observed with an unexpected G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm.  Kp = 7 threshold reached at 17:59 UTC on May 2. The disturbance lasted for a couple of three hour period.  Conditions for G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming may extend thru the day.  All this is due to due to the influence of high-speed solar wind from coronal holes combined with several coronal mass ejections (CMEs). An impact is anticipated by tomorrow May 4 with the possible arrival of a CME from May 1 may bring geomagnetic disturbances up to the level of a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm. Aurora-watchers, go for it!!

Sun news for May 2, 2024: Bye bye, AR3654

Today’s top story: Sunspot region AR3654 has really grabbed our attention during its journey across the sun’s face. After growing to be as wide as 3 Earths, it blasted an enormous almost-X flare on Tuesday night. But now its time on the Earth-facing side of the sun is coming to an end, as it starts to rotate out of view. It’s given us a parting gift, though. Shortly after the almost-X flare, it launched a huge blob of sun-stuff – a coronal mass ejection (CME) – toward Earth. This is expected to arrive on May 4, possibly causing a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm. And that could mean auroras! Plus, although its position on the solar limb (edge) makes it hard to determine AR3654’s magnetic complexity, it does still appear to have the potential to produce some big flares. Let’s see if it’s got any final action in store for us.
Last 24 hours: Solar activity during the past day was moderate after the production of four faint M flares. Between 11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today, the total flare production was 17: four Ms flares and 13 C flares. The largest event was an M1.9 flare from AR3654 at 14:44 UTC on May 1. All the M flares produced R1 (minor) radio blackouts over the sun-lit Earth. Here’s a breakdown of the M flares:
M1.8 flare by AR3654 at 14:32 UTC on May 1
M1.9 flare by AR3654 at 14:44 UTC on May 1 (the largest)
M1.8 flare by AR3663 at 22:31 UTC on May 1
M1.0 flare by AR3663 at 2:17 UTC on May 2
The lead flare producer of the period was active region AR3663 in the northeast quadrant, which produced six flares: two Ms and four Cs. The sun currently has six labeled regions on its Earth-facing side, including newcomer AR3664.
Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 55%. The chance for an X flare is 10%.
Next expected CME: After thorough analysis of a coronal mass ejection (CME) on May 1 associated with a C5.8 flare on May 1, a component was determined to be Earth-directed. The flanking edge may arrive late on May 4. Analysis of April 30’s almost X-flare has found no signs of an Earth-directed CME. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on May 2). Quiet to active periods are possible during the rest of the day today through tomorrow due to the influence of high-speed solar wind from coronal holes combined with several coronal mass ejections (CMEs). On May 4, the possible arrival of a CME from May 1 may bring geomagnetic disturbances up to the level of a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm. Aurora-watchers, get ready!

Sun news for May 1, 2024: Almost X flare! More to come?

An almost-X flare! It happened late yesterday (23:23 UTC on April 30). The M9.5 flare produced an R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean west of Hawaii. It’s not uncommon for a large flare to follow an earlier large flare. Will we see a true X flare from AR3654? After yesterday’s blast, the region reduced its magnetic complexity. It’s now showing a beta-delta configuration, indicating a reduced potential for flaring. The sun’s rotation is about to carry this region out of view. It’s located close to the sun’s southwest limb (edge), and that location is making it difficult for experts to analyze its exact magnetic configuration. Stay tuned.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity is high with the production of an M9.5 flare. Between 11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today, the sun produced seven solar flares: four C flares and three M flares. The largest event was an almost-X flare, an M9.5 flare from active region AR3654 at 23:46 UTC on April 30. Prior to the M9.5, the region produced two small M flares, both of which – like the main flare – produced R1 (minor) radio blackouts over the Pacific Ocean. The lead flare producer was AR3654 with five flares, two Cs and the three Ms of the period, including the M9.5 flare. There are five regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun. There is a newcomer in the northeast quadrant, AR3663.

Sun news for April 30, 2024: See the 4 coronal holes! Plus, X-flare potential?

Excitement is brewing on our star, with sunspot region AR3654 looking like a potential X flare producer. This giant sunspot region has continued to grow over the past day, and its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity indicates that it could produce some seriously large solar flares. Bring it on, AR3654! We’ve not seen an X flare since March 28, when our old friend AR3615 gave us an X1.1. AR3654 has a few days to bring the action before it rotates out of view over the southwestern limb (edge). Before it does, be sure to take a look at this sunspot through safe solar viewing or eclipse glasses – it’s big enough that you don’t need any magnification aid. What you won’t be able to see are the four coronal holes that are currently adding to the excitement on our sun. These are regions where the sun’s magnetic field opens into space, letting fast solar wind pour out. Since this wind can disturb Earth’s magnetic field, these coronal holes are giving us an increased chance for auroras at the moment. So, all we need now for an amazing auroral display is an Earth-bound coronal mass ejection (CME) from a big flare… We’re looking at you, AR3654!
Last 24 hours: Sun activity has been moderate over the past day with the production of an isolated M flare. Between 11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today, the sun released 13 solar flares: 12 C flares and one M flare. The largest event was an M1.6 flare from AR3654 at 1:14 UTC on April 30. The flare produced an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean at the boundaries of the Philippine Sea. The lead flare producer of the period was AR3654 with nine flares, including the M flare. There are currently five regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun, including newcomers AR3661 and AR3662.

Sun news for April 29, 2024: Giant sunspot now as wide as 3 Earths

Sunspot region AR3654 continues to increase in size and maintain its magnetic complexity. We expected more to come from the region, and it did not disappoint. It fired off 15 of the observation period’s 17 flares, including two M flares. The region also grew from an area twice that of Earth to more than three times that of Earth. With your eclipse glasses, you should be able to glimpse it from Earth. AR3654 is located near the equator in the western hemisphere. This means that if the region erupts, there is a greater chance for solar stuff to head our way, especially solar energetic particles. Will AR3654 send more activity our way? Stay tuned.
Last 24 hours: Solar activity is moderate, with two M flares over the past 24 hours from AR3654. The sun released 17 solar flares15 C flares and two M flares. The largest event, an M3.7 flare, happened at 00:54 UTC on April 29. The second event, an M2.5 flare, happened at 00:33 on April 29. Both M flares produced an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean. AR3654 grew to an area three times that of Earth over the current observation period, 11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today. The region has maintained its delta region. Two filaments erupted from the northeast and southeast limbs (edges) around 6:52 UTC. There are six regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun now.

? ? Sun news for April 29, 2024: Giant sunspot continues to grow

? ? Sunspot region AR3654 continues to increase in size and maintain its magnetic complexity. We expected more from the region, and it did not disappoint.

? MORE at EarthSky: https://t.co/xD29wLfm4e pic.twitter.com/WKei6mFYrP

— Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) April 29, 2024

Sun news for April 28, 2024: huge sunspot region poised for more action!

Sunspot region AR3654 doubled in size over the past day. It’s now about 2 planets in diameter. With your eclipse glasses, you might be able to glimpse it from Earth. At its location near the center of the sun’s visible disk, it could give us some excitement over the next few days. That’s because, besides growing in size, AR3654 has increased in magnetic complexity, indicating a potential for more flares. It already produced two M flares over the past day. Will we see more? Plus, given AR3654’s location on the sun’s visible disk, any eruptions will have a chance of sending sun-stuff our way. And that could mean more auroras in the days ahead. The region appears to have produced a small coronal mass ejection at around 11 UTC on April 27. That event could impact Earth in mid-to-late May 1. Stay tuned.
Last 24 hours: Solar activity is moderate, with two M flares over the past 24 hours from AR3654. The largest event, an impulsive M3.0 flare, happened at 21:29 UTC on April 27. The second event, an M2.1 flare, happened at 12:33 on April 27. AR3654 is now the largest sunspot region on the sun’s disk. Overall, flare production was lower over the past day (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), with two M and five C flares. A new Region, 3660, got its number. There are nine regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun now.

The sun in recent days

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Bottom line: Sun news for May 2, 2024. Bye, Bye AR3654. The region that brought so much action is on its way out over the western limb. But it’s still got excitement in store.