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Sun news November 13: Auroras tonight and tomorrow

Sun news for November 12-13, 2024. The NOAA SWPC forecast for tonight and tomorrow is Kp=4 or active with the possibility of a G1 storm (Kp=5). This is due to fast solar wind from a coronal hole on the Earth-facing solar disk. Image via NOAA

Sun news November 13: Auroras tonight and tomorrow

Today’s top story: Current conditions are moderate on the sun with a single M1 flare. Activity at Earth is quiet (Kp = 0), but fast solar wind from a coronal hole could disturb the field up to active (Kp = 4) levels and possibly even G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming (Kp = 5). This is the forecast for tonight and tomorrow, meaning auroras at higher latitudes. Aurora watchers down to the upper US states and northern Europe get ready. Clear skies! Stay tuned.
Last 24 hours: An isolated M flare brought the period’s solar activity to a moderate level. Flare productivity increased compared to the previous period’s eight flares. During the current period between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, we observed 12 C and one M flare. The largest was a M1.0 flare at 0:22 UTC on November 12 from active region AR3889. An R1 (minor) radio blackout  affected an area over Fiji Island. The lead flare producer was AR3889 with 10 flares, the M and nine C flares. The region retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity, indicating it could produce higher activity, including M and X (strong) flares. AR3889 is the largest region. The remaining regions have simpler alpha or beta configurations. The sun has six active regions on its Earth-facing side.
Next 24 hours: The chance for C (common) flares is 99%, the chance for M (moderate) flares is 65%, and the chance for X (strong) flares is 25% today.
Next expected CME: No Earth-bound coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery during the past day.
Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is very quiet (Kp = 0) at time of this writing (11 UTC on November 13). Despite this very low level, the geomagnetic field is expected at quiet-to-unsettled levels during the rest of the day with possible G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming late today due to fast solar wind from a coronal hole. These conditions could be extended through tomorrow, November 14.

An M1.0 flare from AR3889 while a huge prominence was seen on the northwest limb. The CME produced during the NW prominence eruption wasn’t Earth-directed because the blast was from the sun’s far side.
Image via SDO
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with a mottled surface.
View at EarthSky Community Photos. | Jim Militello in Tucson, Arizona, captured this filtered image of the sun on November 12, 2024. Jim wrote: “This hydrogen-alpha image of the sun is showing active regions, filaments, and prominences.” Thank you, Jim!
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with dark spots, each labeled.
This image shows sun activity – with the most active regions labeled – as of 1 UTC on November 13, 2024. Original image, without labels, via NASA SDO. Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams, with labeling by EarthSky. Today’s sun is posted by Armando Caussade. Why are east and west on the sun reversed?

Sun news November 12: Auroras possible tomorrow

Today’s top story: NOAA is forecasting auroral displays at high northern latitudes over the next two days, as fast solar wind from a coronal hole reaches Earth. It should stir up a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm. Stay tuned!
Last 24 hours: Sun activity has dropped to low, with only C-class flares produced over the past day. We also saw a reduction in flare quantity, with only eight flares produced between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today. The largest was a C4.4 flare produced by AR3889 on November 11 at 14:28 UTC. This region was the past day’s lead producer with six C flares. It also kept its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity, indicating it could still produce some higher activity. The region grew over the period and has now been split into two regions, giving us AR3892 and the original AR3889. AR3883 still shows its beta-gamma configuration, while the remaining regions are simpler alpha or beta regions. Today, the sun has seven active regions on its Earth-facing side. Besides the aforementioned AR3892, born from the AR3889 split, there is one more newcomer in the southeast quadrant: AR3891.
Next 24 hours: The chance for C (common) flares is 99%, the chance for M (moderate) flares is 70%, and the chance for X (strong) flares is 25% today.
Next expected CME: A filament eruption at 1:25 UTC on November 11 hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. Modeling and analysis is in progress to determine if any component was Earth-directed. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at this writing (11 UTC on November 12). Quiet-to-unsettled periods are expected during the rest of the day. Periods of active conditions and G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming are likely tomorrow, November 13, as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position and the fast solar wind it sends out may head toward Earth.

View of north part of Earth with wide green swaths circling the pole.
Sun news for November 11-12, 2024. NOAA has forecast G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming for November 13-14 due to fast solar wind from a coronal hole in a geoeffective location. Image via NOAA.
Face of the sun with black streaks on it.
SDO’s 193 angstroms wavelength channel shows the current coronal holes on November 12, including the one driving the expected geomagnetic activity. Image via SDO.
The sun with some arcs of glowing gas visible at the edge.
Current low activity on the sun captured by SDO’s 304 angstroms wavelength channel on November 12, 2024. Image via NOAA.
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with a mottled surface.
View at EarthSky Community Photos. | Mario Rana in Hampton, Virginia, captured this filtered image on November 11, 2024. Mario wrote: “Hydrogen-alpha image of the sun with an amazing prominence on the northeast limb!” Thank you, Mario!

Sun news November 11: Almost-X flare, auroras last night

At 11:51 UTC yesterday, sunspot region AR3889 blasted an impressive M9.4 flare, almost reaching the X flare threshold (an X flare is the equivalent of an M10). Also blasting three more M flares over the past day, AR3889 is showcasing the high flare potential associated with its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. There was also excitement at Earth last night, where auroras were reported well into the northern U.S. states. The G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm that caused the displays was started by the glancing blow of a coronal mass ejection (CME), and continued due to fast solar wind from a coronal hole.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity jumped to high over the past day. The increase is due to the four M flares, all from AR3889. The region began our observation period (11 UTC to 11 UTC) with a near-X flare – M9.4 – followed by an M4.9, an M1.2, and an M1.4. The largest event was the M9.4 at 11:51 UTC on November 10. It caused R2 (moderate) radio blackouts over the Atlantic off the coast of Africa. AR3889 produced the majority of the flares in our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today): 12 flares, with the four M flares and eight C flares. AR3883 lost its delta region, while AR3889 maintained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity, meaning it maintains the potential for major flaring. The remaining regions are simpler alpha or beta regions. The sun has six numbered active regions on its Earth-facing side. The list of M flares over the 24-hour observation period is as follows:

  • M9.4 at 11:51 UTC on November 10 from AR3889. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Atlantic off the coast of Africa.
  • M4.9 at 20:09 UTC on November 10 from AR3889. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific.
  • M1.2 at 05:07 UTC on November 11 from AR3889. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Indian Ocean off the coast of Australia.
  • M1.4 at 05:36 UTC on November 11 from AR3889. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Indian Ocean off the coast of Australia.
Sun news for November 10-11, 2024. Sunspot region AR3889 has been very active over the past 24 hours. At the beginning of the period it produced an M9.4 flare. The region then produced three more M flares. The activity is captured here with the SDO 171 and 131 angstrom channels. Images via SDO and JHelioviewer.
Sun activity for November 10-11, 2024. Using the SDO 193 angstrom wavelength channel, two coronal holes were detected. Image via SDO and ISWA.

The sun in recent days

The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with dark spots, each labeled.
This image shows sun activity, with the most active regions labeled, as of 3 UTC on November 11, 2024. Courtesy of NASA/ SDO and the AIA, EVE and HMI science teams, with labeling by EarthSky.
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with dark spots, each labeled.
This image shows sun activity, with the most active regions labeled, as of 6 UTC on November 10, 2024. Courtesy of NASA/ SDO and the AIA, EVE and HMI science teams, with labeling by EarthSky.

Sun images from our community

The sun, seen as a large white sphere with small dark spots.
View at EarthSky Community Photos. | Patricio León in Santiago, Chile, captured this filtered image of the sun on November 12, 2024. Patricio wrote: “Not much more than a pair of dark nuclei near the sun’s face center, although the western one, AR3889, measures 3×3 Earths and is visible (protected) without optical aid. Mini spot appearing at 8 o’clock limb; hope it gets much bigger!” Thank you, Patricio!
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with a mottled surface.
View at EarthSky Community Photos. | Jim Militello in Tucson, Arizona, captured this filtered image of the sun on November 12, 2024. Jim wrote: “This hydrogen-alpha image of the sun is showing active regions, filaments, and prominences.” Thank you, Jim!
The sun, seen as a large yellow sphere with a mottled surface.
View at EarthSky Community Photos. | Mario Rana in Hampton, Virginia, captured this filtered image on November 11, 2024. Mario wrote: “Hydrogen-alpha image of the sun with an amazing prominence on the northeast limb!” Thank you, Mario!
The sun, seen as a large orange sphere with small dark spots.
View at EarthSky Community Photos. | David Hawkes in Sheffield, United Kingdom, captured this filtered image of the sun on November 10, 2024. David wrote: “Not great conditions, clouds were all over the place as they have been all week over the UK but a little respite (sort of!) allowed this shot. We’ve still got a clear southern line of sunspots with a solitary region exiting in the far west (solar west, i.e., top right).” Thank you, David!

Are you a fan of sun images? We invite you all to send us your beautiful recent photos of sunspots and auroras. We love receiving them and sharing them! And to those of you who’ve already posted a photo to our community page, thank you.

Submit photos here

View community photos here

Bottom line: Sun news November 13, 2024. Sun activity is moderate due to one M1 flare. Solar wind from a coronal hole could bring up to G1 storms today and tomorrow.

Posted 
November 13, 2024
 in 
Earth

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