Sun news November 13: Auroras tonight and tomorrow
Today’s top story: Current conditions are moderate on the sun with a single M1 flare. Activity at Earth is quiet (Kp = 0), but fast solar wind from a coronal hole could disturb the field up to active (Kp = 4) levels and possibly even G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming (Kp = 5). This is the forecast for tonight and tomorrow, meaning auroras at higher latitudes. Aurora watchers down to the upper US states and northern Europe get ready. Clear skies! Stay tuned. Last 24 hours: An isolated M flare brought the period’s solar activity to a moderate level. Flare productivity increased compared to the previous period’s eight flares. During the current period between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, we observed 12 C and one M flare. The largest was a M1.0 flare at 0:22 UTC on November 12 from active region AR3889. An R1 (minor) radio blackout affected an area over Fiji Island. The lead flare producer was AR3889 with 10 flares, the M and nine C flares. The region retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity, indicating it could produce higher activity, including M and X (strong) flares. AR3889 is the largest region. The remaining regions have simpler alpha or beta configurations. The sun has six active regions on its Earth-facing side. Next 24 hours: The chance for C (common) flares is 99%, the chance for M (moderate) flares is 65%, and the chance for X (strong) flares is 25% today. Next expected CME: No Earth-bound coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery during the past day. Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is very quiet (Kp = 0) at time of this writing (11 UTC on November 13). Despite this very low level, the geomagnetic field is expected at quiet-to-unsettled levels during the rest of the day with possible G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming late today due to fast solar wind from a coronal hole. These conditions could be extended through tomorrow, November 14.
Sun news November 12: Auroras possible tomorrow
Today’s top story: NOAA is forecasting auroral displays at high northern latitudes over the next two days, as fast solar wind from a coronal hole reaches Earth. It should stir up a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm. Stay tuned! Last 24 hours: Sun activity has dropped to low, with only C-class flares produced over the past day. We also saw a reduction in flare quantity, with only eight flares produced between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today. The largest was a C4.4 flare produced by AR3889 on November 11 at 14:28 UTC. This region was the past day’s lead producer with six C flares. It also kept its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity, indicating it could still produce some higher activity. The region grew over the period and has now been split into two regions, giving us AR3892 and the original AR3889. AR3883 still shows its beta-gamma configuration, while the remaining regions are simpler alpha or beta regions. Today, the sun has seven active regions on its Earth-facing side. Besides the aforementioned AR3892, born from the AR3889 split, there is one more newcomer in the southeast quadrant: AR3891. Next 24 hours: The chance for C (common) flares is 99%, the chance for M (moderate) flares is 70%, and the chance for X (strong) flares is 25% today. Next expected CME: A filament eruption at 1:25 UTC on November 11 hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. Modeling and analysis is in progress to determine if any component was Earth-directed. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at this writing (11 UTC on November 12). Quiet-to-unsettled periods are expected during the rest of the day. Periods of active conditions and G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming are likely tomorrow, November 13, as a coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position and the fast solar wind it sends out may head toward Earth.
Sun news November 11: Almost-X flare, auroras last night
At 11:51 UTC yesterday, sunspot region AR3889 blasted an impressive M9.4 flare, almost reaching the X flare threshold (an X flare is the equivalent of an M10). Also blasting three more M flares over the past day, AR3889 is showcasing the high flare potential associated with its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity. There was also excitement at Earth last night, where auroras were reported well into the northern U.S. states. The G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm that caused the displays was started by the glancing blow of a coronal mass ejection (CME), and continued due to fast solar wind from a coronal hole. Last 24 hours: Sun activity jumped to high over the past day. The increase is due to the four M flares, all from AR3889. The region began our observation period (11 UTC to 11 UTC) with a near-X flare – M9.4 – followed by an M4.9, an M1.2, and an M1.4. The largest event was the M9.4 at 11:51 UTC on November 10. It caused R2 (moderate) radio blackouts over the Atlantic off the coast of Africa. AR3889 produced the majority of the flares in our observation period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today): 12 flares, with the four M flares and eight C flares. AR3883 lost its delta region, while AR3889 maintained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity, meaning it maintains the potential for major flaring. The remaining regions are simpler alpha or beta regions. The sun has six numbered active regions on its Earth-facing side. The list of M flares over the 24-hour observation period is as follows:
M9.4 at 11:51 UTC on November 10 from AR3889. R2 (moderate) radio blackout over the Atlantic off the coast of Africa.
M4.9 at 20:09 UTC on November 10 from AR3889. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific.
M1.2 at 05:07 UTC on November 11 from AR3889. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Indian Ocean off the coast of Australia.
M1.4 at 05:36 UTC on November 11 from AR3889. R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Indian Ocean off the coast of Australia.
The sun in recent days
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Bottom line: Sun news November 13, 2024. Sun activity is moderate due to one M1 flare. Solar wind from a coronal hole could bring up to G1 storms today and tomorrow.
C. Alex Young is a solar astrophysicist studying the Sun and space weather. Alex is passionate about sharing science with diverse audiences. This led him to start The Sun Today with his designer wife, Linda. First through Facebook and Twitter then adding an extensive website thesuntoday.org, the two work together to engage the public about the Sun and its role in our solar system. Alex led national engagement efforts for the 2017 total solar eclipse. He is the Associate Director for Science in the Heliophysics Science Division at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.
Raúl Cortés studied engineering at the Autonomous University of Nuevo León in Monterrey, Mexico, obtained a scholarship to continue his studies in Japan and after returning to Monterrey he got credits on MBA from the Graduate School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Faculty. He became a teacher at the University UANL teaching Math and Physics and dedicated the rest of his professional career to serve in engineering areas for USA, Japan and Germany based corporations. His passion for the skies go back to when he was a child, always intrigued about the stars and constellations and reading and researching about the matter. From 2010 on, he dedicated his attention to photographing the stars, constellations, the moon and the sun. Raúl's work on his photography has been published and posted on the ESC as well as in other platforms and has gained attention to be published by local Monterrey newspapers.
Armando is known primarily as an astronomy educator, after 30+ years of extensive public outreach and 10 years teaching in colleges. As one of only a handful of science communicators in Puerto Rico during Comet Halley's last visit, he assumed a pioneering role starting in 1985 when science was just beginning to enter the collective mindset. Over the years, his work as a teacher, speaker and writer, inspired people to pursue interests in science and brought enduring change to Puerto Rican culture. After being accepted into the 2014–2015 Antarctic season of PolarTREC, Armando was assigned to the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, where in 2015 he successfully conducted 10 days of work at the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. His affiliations include Ana G. Méndez University, Cupey campus (2014 to 2021), the University of Puerto Rico, Aguadilla campus (2015 to 2017), NASA JPL's Solar System Ambassadors (2004 to 2006), and NASA Space Grant (2017 to 2019) where he served as an affiliate representative.
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