Sun

Sun activity: Possible CME sideswipe weekend of March 18

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C. Alex Young

and

Raúl Cortés

and

Armando Caussade

and

March 19, 2022

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Yellow and black image of sun activity with streamers at top right and left. — Sun activity for March 19, 2022. As you can see from the image, most of the activity right now is occurring on the limbs of the sun, as seen from Earth’s perspective. Image via NASA SDO.

Sun activity: More coming, maybe

Another CME impact might be on its way. The second CME this week isn’t from a solar flare, as many CMEs are; it’s from a filament eruption that happened on March 16. Solar filaments are long ropes of solar material held down by magnetic fields. They’re the same pink-red structures you see around a darkened moon during total solar eclipses. In this case, the magnetic fields shifted in such a way that the filament detached from the sun, sending a CME our way.

NASA and NOAA models for the March 16 CME’s arrival time vary a little, but together they give an expected arrival of between March 18 and March 20.

This weekend’s CME will probably just sideswipe us; but this CME sideswipe could disturb Earth’s magnetic field enough to produce a minor geomagnetic storm (G1-class) and that would mean more auroras!

CME WATCH: Lots of action over the last two days off both the east and west limbs, see if you can see them all. pic.twitter.com/ki2LLMNQ9O

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) March 19, 2022

Gorgeous #solarstorm launches are getting more common! This one might be partly Earth-directed! Early NASA model runs are indicating it could graze Earth late on March 19 or early March 20. Waiting for more coronagraph observations to refine predictions1 pic.twitter.com/UwGGw43IFd

— Dr. Tamitha Skov (@TamithaSkov) March 16, 2022

NOAA’s model

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center model has a CME arrival of March 18.

Schematic representations of possible CME paths. — A snapshot of the NOAA ENLIL model with the CME arriving at Earth at the end of March 18. Earth is the yellow circle on the left image showing the solar system. The left image shows the top-down view. Center image shows the side view at Earth. Right image shows the stretched out view with Earth at the center. Image via NOAA.

NASA’s model

NASA has a CME arrival of March 20. Both models have a time range of plus or minus 7 hours.

Animated gif of the ENLIL model for March 15 to 25, 2022.This shows the CME leaving the sun on March 16, reaching Earth on March 20. Earth is the yellow circle on the left image showing the solar system. The left image shows the top-down view. Center image shows the side view at Earth. Right image shows the stretched out view with Earth at the center. Image via NASA.

AR2965 is rotating out of view

The large sunspot region AR2965 gave us some exciting activity last week, including an Earth-directed CME and several M-class solar flares. It is still visible on the sun, but the sun’s rotation has almost carried it out of our view.

HUGE SUNSPOT REGION: AR2965 has grown to a size of 600 millionths (of the surface of the Sun). It includes several spots as big as, if not larger than the Earth. It contains about 70 individual spots spread over a distance of about 140,000 km. We can expect to see larger regions. pic.twitter.com/Ld3wJ5YMp6

— Keith Strong (@drkstrong) March 14, 2022

Notable solar activity seems to avoid AR 12965, for which some still seem to hold big hope. This movie shows a nice eruption from a smaller region AR 12967. It also kicked another filament to erupt on the northeast (upper left) limb. This eruption may not be Earth-bound. pic.twitter.com/opXIYWRugM

— Halo CME (@halocme) March 16, 2022

Happy people, gorgeous auroras

Panoramic view of the night sky with full moon and green aurora. — Aurora Borealis seen on March 15, 2022 at Kvaløya, Tromso, Norway. Via Marianne Bergil.

Standing on the beach… #auroraborealis #Iceland pic.twitter.com/HYsVyUZAq0

— Sophie Carr (@SophieCarrPhoto) March 15, 2022

Gorgeous auroras, happy people last night! ? pic.twitter.com/KLcJ1IBw2x

— Night Lights (@NightLights_AM) March 12, 2022

How auroras are created

This is how an Auroras created pic.twitter.com/M1DfirCQCb

— Physics & Astronomy Zone (@zone_astronomy) March 16, 2022

Bottom line: Sun activity for March 18, 2022. A CME from the sun might deliver a glancing blow to our planet the weekend of March 18 to March 20. Stay tuned!

Posted

March 19, 2022

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Sun

C. Alex Young

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About the Author:

C. Alex Young is a solar astrophysicist studying the Sun and space weather. Alex is passionate about sharing science with diverse audiences. This led him to start The Sun Today with his designer wife, Linda. First through Facebook and Twitter then adding an extensive website thesuntoday.org, the two work together to engage the public about the Sun and its role in our solar system. Alex led national engagement efforts for the 2017 total solar eclipse. He is the Associate Director for Science in the Heliophysics Science Division at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Raúl Cortés

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About the Author:

Raúl Cortés studied engineering at the Autonomous University of Nuevo León in Monterrey, Mexico, obtained a scholarship to continue his studies in Japan and after returning to Monterrey he got credits on MBA from the Graduate School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Faculty. He became a teacher at the University UANL teaching Math and Physics and dedicated the rest of his professional career to serve in engineering areas for USA, Japan and Germany based corporations. His passion for the skies go back to when he was a child, always intrigued about the stars and constellations and reading and researching about the matter. From 2010 on, he dedicated his attention to photographing the stars, constellations, the moon and the sun. Raúl's work on his photography has been published and posted on the ESC as well as in other platforms and has gained attention to be published by local Monterrey newspapers.

Armando Caussade

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About the Author:

Armando is well known as an astronomy educator, after 30+ years leading extensive initiatives of public outreach and 10+ years teaching in colleges. As one of only a handful of Puerto Rican science communicators during Comet Halley's last visit, he assumed a pioneering role starting in 1985 when science was just beginning to enter the local mindset; over time his work brought meaningful change to the culture, inspiring people to pursue interests in science and technology. His affiliations include Ana G. Méndez University–Cupey, where in 2014 he spearheaded an 8-course extension program focusing on observational astronomy, the first ever in the island.