Sun activity: Aurora alert! 4 blobs of sun coming our way

EarthSky sun activity author Dr. C. Alex Young also produces @thesuntoday.

Sun activity for November 30, 2023: Aurora alert! 4 blobs of sun coming our way

Today’s top news: Auroras incoming late tonight and tomorrow night! Four coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are currently headed toward Earth. These blobs of solar plasma and magnetic fields are expected to reach us late today into tomorrow. The first one (late today) will give the south of Earth a glancing blow. And then comes the big punch. Three CMEs should reach us early tomorrow, December 1. In fact – on its journey through space – a large CME that left the sun on November 28 will overtake the two events from the previous day, creating a complicated mass of sun-stuff known as a cannibal CME. Sound scary? Not at all. And it’s going to bring some beautiful auroral displays to northern latitudes! Forecasters are predicting up to a G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm, with auroras that could even be somewhat visible on the horizon to those at latitudes like those in the northern U.S. Good luck, aurora chasers!
Last 24 hours: Sun activity is back to low, with 14 C flares produced between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today. The largest was a C3.8 flare from sunspot group AR3500 at 14:35 UTC on November 29. This region has remained active after Tuesday’s almost-X flare, firing more flares than any other sunspot group (six out of the 14) as well as producing jets all day. It has kept its beta-gamma magnetic complexity, so the possibility of large M flares remains. It is the largest and most complex of the ten active regions currently on the Earth-viewed side of our sun.
Next 24 hours: Today’s forecast is a 95% chance for C flares, a 40% chance for M flares, and a 10% chance for X flares.
Next expected CME: After modeling and analysis of the full halo CME observed on November 28 after AR3500’s almost-X flare, it is set to reach us at Earth by early December 1, alongside the two CMEs fired late on November 27.
Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s geomagnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on November 30). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue for most of the day. Geomagnetic disturbance should commence on December 1 due to the arrival of the CME from November 27, combined with high-speed solar wind from a coronal hole. This may produce a G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm. In addition, later during the day tomorrow, a CME that left the sun on November 28 may hit us, with chances for up to G3 (strong) geomagnetic storming.

Sun activity for November 29, 2023: Almost-X flare! Auroras incoming

EarthSky sun activity author Dr. C. Alex Young also produces @thesuntoday.

Bam! The sun almost reached X flare levels with an M9.8 released at 19:50 UTC on November 28. An X flare is the strongest category of solar flare. This almost-X came from sunspot region AR3500 near the center of the sun’s disk. It sent a CME (coronal mass ejection) straight toward Earth. Space weather forecasters at NOAA predict this blob of sun-stuff will reach Earth on November 30. This CME is traveling to us behind another CME – released from the sun on November 27 – which is expected to reach us on late November 29. Together, these two solar blasts may provoke G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storms at Earth. That means substantial auroras will be visible at higher latitudes. Fingers crossed for clear skies!
Last 24 hours: Sun activity has risen to high after the production of the M9.8 flare. Between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, the sun released two M flares and six Cs. The M9.8 came shortly after an M3.4 at 19:13 UTC, November 28. Both flares came from AR3500, and both produced radio blackouts off the west coast of South America. The M3.4’s blackout was rated at R1 (minor), while the almost-X flare produced an R2 (moderate) blackout. AR3500 continues to show a beta-gamma magnetic complexity. The sun currently has ten active regions on its Earth-facing side.

Sun activity for November 28, 2023: More sun-stuff headed toward Earth

EarthSky sun activity author Dr. C. Alex Young also produces @thesuntoday.
The sun is at it again! We saw a huge eruption on the sun yesterday, and it’s headed our way. In fact, the last 24 hours was full of action, with a huge solar burp in the northeast at around 18:24 UTC yesterday, followed by another one slightly further northeast at around 22:23 UTC. And if those two weren’t enough, another blast came from an area not yet in view, just over the northeast limb (edge). The first two more than likely were directed toward Earth, while the third one will probably pass us by. As with the previous day’s eruption, if these coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are heading toward Earth, this could mean geomagnetic storms. And when Earth’s magnetic field gets disturbed, that means more auroras! Keep an eye out over the next few days.
Last 24 hours: With eight C flares produced by the sun during the past day, sun activity is currently deemed to be low. The largest flare was a C6.7 from AR3500 at 18:52 UTC on November 27. The lead flare producer of the period (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today) is an unnumbered active region coming into view on the northeast limb, which fired two of the eight blasts. The sun currently has 10 active regions on its Earth-facing side. Sunspot group AR3500’s magnetic complexity reduced to a less-potent beta-gamma configuration, the same as AR3499. The rest of the active regions show simple alpha and beta configurations.

Sun activity for November 27, 2023: Watch sun-stuff blast into space

EarthSky sun activity author Dr. C. Alex Young also produces @thesuntoday.
It is a low sun activity day, but nobody told our star that. It released a huge rope of plasma and magnetic fields, a filament, off into space, possibly heading our way. We await further analysis for confirmation of an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). If this CME is heading toward Earth, this could mean disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field – aka geomagnetic storms – and that would mean more auroras. Stay tuned!
Last 24 hours: Sun activity has dropped again over the past 24 hours, with six C flares over the past day (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today). The largest was a C2.7 from AR3500 at 12:52 UTC on November 26. The sun still has an impressive number of active regions – 12 in all – but most stayed the same or decayed some. Region AR3500 has maintained its beta-gamma-delta configuration, but its size and flare activity are small. AR3499 has developed a beta-gamma configuration, showing some increase in magnetic complexity.

The sun in recent days

Sun images from our community

We invite you all to send us your beautiful recent photos of sunspots and auroras. Naturally, we love receiving your photos! And to those of you who’ve already posted a photo to our community page, thank you.

Submit photos here

View community photos here

Bottom line: Sun activity for November 30 is low, but excitement is on the way to Earth! Four coronal mass ejections should bring auroras late tonight and tomorrow night.