The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a slight chance for severe weather across the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The main time period for severe weather will occur late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Areas that could be affected include Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, and Ohio. Indiana looks to be the main area of concern, as the they will be in an area that could have a heighten risk for possible tornadoes. Severe weather is also possible for southern Texas, and we could see strong storms along the frontal boundary around eastern Texas, Arkansas, and southeastern Missouri.
Here’s the slight risk area for November 14, 2011 from the SPC:
Here’s the biggest areas of concern in regards to possible tornadoes developing this afternoon and evening. The hatched area (southeast Illinois into most of Indiana and western Ohio) shows a 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point:
You need a lot of ingredients to see severe weather. The main ingredient for thunderstorms is an increase in moisture. Dewpoints across Indiana are currently pushing into the 60’s, which indicates higher humidity and more moisture.
Here’s a look at the significant tornado parameter. Anything shaded in yellow shows a chance at seeing tornadoes. If you see orange or red colors, those chances increase. The image below shows an increase in activity around Illinois, Kentucky, and Indiana this evening.
All residents in these areas are urged to be weather ready this afternoon as storms fire up. The biggest area of concern in my opinion will be in Indiana where most of the ingredients are in place to see a few strong tornadoes.
Bottom line: severe weather is likely across the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Tornadoes are possible across southeast Illinois, most of Indiana, and western Ohio. All residents are urged to monitor the weather as it evolves later this afternoon.
Matt Daniel is Meteorologist for WBRC in Birmingham, Alabama. A self-described "big weather and music geek," Matt has a passion for helping to keep people safe when severe weather strikes and says if you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio ... you should get one.