Earthsky Interviews
Private: Satellite data aids volcano prediction
10-13-2005 - Earth
_JB:_ A hot spot might indicate a wildfire. But Rob Wright at the University of Hawaii uses this satellite data to study volcanoes, in hopes of learning to predict when a powerful eruption might occur.
_Rob Wright:_ One of the long term goals of doing this kind of work is the need to improve our understanding of how volcanoes have behaved in the past so that we can better predict how they might behave in the future.
_DB:_ Wright wants to compile satellite data about volcanic eruptions from the past 30 years.
_Rob Wright:_ Because then we could determine whether large eruptions are preceded by particular patterns of thermal activity. . . . And for something to have predictive value, we need to demonstrate that we . . . recognize that particular pattern of precursor activity several times and that more often than not, that particular type of activity is always followed by a larger eruption.
_JB:_ Wright is also developing a technique for predicting where a volcano’s lava will flow. He uses a computer simulation based on the shape of the volcano – and satellite data about how quickly lava is flowing. These predictions could be valuable to local hazard managers who decide if and when to evacuate people living near volcanoes.
_DB: Special thanks today to “NASA”:http://www.nasa.gov:_ explore, discover, understand. We’re Block and Byrd for Earth and Sky.
See the Thermal Alert System’s “volcano map”:http://modis.higp.hawaii.edu/cgi-bin/modis/modisnew.cgi. If no yellow, red or green dots appear, click on the “Previous 1 day” button to see yesterday’s data.
Here’s an “explanation”:http://modis.higp.hawaii.edu/ of what the volcano map is representing.
Rob Wright adds: “Now what we’re trying to do is not tell hazard managers when they might want to evacuate towns because they’re going to have to look at a whole host of other scientific data as well. But the results that we’re trying to provide we hope, we’re trying to provide another set of data which they can use alongside all the other data which they’ve collected to make those kinds of difficult decisions.”
Our thanks to:
Robert Wright
Assistant Researcher
University of Hawai’i at Manoa
Hawai’i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology
Honolulu, HI