Odd Weather
DB: This is Earth and Sky. When we visited the Lawrence Hall of Science in Berkeley, California, we recorded this question.
Cecily Miller: Hi, my name is Cecily Miller. I’m from Martinez, California. My question is, are the odd weather patterns we’ve been experiencing all over the country the first symptoms of global warming?”
JB: Cecily, we asked that question of several climate change experts. Robert Jackson of Duke University – and Andrea Hahmann of University of Arizona – both said your answer can only be a qualified “maybe.” So far, scientists haven’t been able to pinpoint with any certainty whether one odd or extreme weather event is caused by global climate change.
DB: Meanwhile, John Harte, a climate researcher at University of California, reminded us that scientists do predict “odd” or extreme weather to increase as Earth’s temperature rises. The predictions indicate that things like drought, heat waves and floods might indeed become more common and intense. So to answer your question, Cecily, odd or extreme weather events are consistent with scientific predictions of what will happen as Earth’s climate gets warmer.
JB: But it’s not possible to link any one event with global climate change. Cecily thanks for your question. And with thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and to the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, we’re Block and Byrd for Earth and Sky.
Articles:
Defusing the Global Warming Time Bomb. By James Hansen. Scientific American, March 2004. Pp. 68-77. Or go here and click on March 2004 and scroll down to find and download this article.
Links:
Europe’s Weird Weather Warms Debate (New Scientist.com, August 3, 2004)
European Heat Wave Caused 35,000 Deaths (New Scientist.com, October 10, 2003)
Global Warming Kills 160,000 A Year (New Scientist.com, October 1, 2003)
West getting burned by global warming (CNN.com, May 4, 2004)
Author’s Notes:
Points to consider:
1. A recent study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the World Health Organization claims that global warming and its side effects cause 160,000 deaths per year, world wide.
2. Rob Jackson says he himself would be highly cautious about attributing that the European heat wave of 2003 to global warming, but notes that the heat wave killed many times more people than the tragic twin tower collapse on September 11. He feels that, so far, people in Europe are generally more concerned about global warming than Americans.
3. John Harte says that the unusual events we’ve seen recently including record heat waves, unusual fire seasons, and droughts may be a preview (but not a proof) of what we can expect to see more of in the future. He even suggests we’ll look back on the present day as being relatively cool and benign. Harte compares climate to the Dow Jones long-term average and individual weather events to tracking day to day stocks. You can’t say any one stock changes because of the average, but over time individual stocks appear more like the average.
The following people were interviewed for today’s program. Our thanks to:
Dr. John Harte
Professor Energy and Resources Group
University of California
Berkeley, CA
Robert B. Jackson
Department of Biology and Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences
Duke University
Durham, NC
Andrea N. Hahmann
Research Assistant Professor
Institute of Atmospheric Physics
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ
