El Ni�o mystery solved, monsoon forecasts improved
Farmers in India depend on the yearly monsoon, which accounts for 80% of its rainfall. Scientists at the Cooperative Institute for Environmental Sciences have significantly improved monsoon forecasts by studying the climate pattern known as El Niño.
JB: I’m Joel Block.
DB: And I’m Deborah Byrd. By solving a mystery surrounding the El Niño, scientists have found a way to warn people of coming drought in India.
JB: Earth and Sky spoke to Balaji Rajagopalan at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. He said that drought in India often coincides with the El Niño, an abnormal warming in the Pacific. But not all El Niños bring drought.
Balaji Rajagopalan: All of the El Niño occurrences need not necessarily produce droughts in the Indian region. So, this was a big paradox which came to light in recent years, because the monsoon forecast has failed terribly.
DB: Rajagopalan and his colleagues used climate models in synch with observed records of the El Niño and rainfall. They found that the location of ocean hotspots, or “flavors” of El Niño as he calls them, strongly determines the likelihood of monsoon rain. Rajagopalan calls the hotspots “flavors.”
Balaji Rajagopalan: If you had an El Niño “flavor” over the central Pacific, that led to a much stronger drought over India. And then if you had an El Niño which was more towards the eastern Pacific, in the equatorial Pacific region, it ended up with a normal, or sometimes even wetter monsoon.
JB: This information will lead to better predictions of the monsoon rains in India, which are sorely needed to grow food. Our thanks today to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We’re Block and Byrd for Earth & Sky.
Our thanks to:
Balaji Rajagopalan
Assistant Professor
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Colorado
Boulder, CO
Fellow
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
Additional Teacher Resources
NOAA: El Nino Page
This NOAA web page provides information on El Nino, including explanations of El Nino and La Nina, current El Nino status, and NOAA’s role in El Nino observations and research.
NOAA: Teacher Info – El Nino
This NOAA web page provides resources for educators including an El Nino Student Activity Book, Teacher Activity Key, and Teacher Information.
NASA: El Nino – Making Sense of the Weather
This NASA web page for students provides an explanation of El Nino and describes NASA work in understanding El Nino events.
