Earthsky

Private: Drier climate predicted for African Sahel

03-12-2006 - Earth

_JB:_ This is Earth & Sky. One of the largest climate changes observed in the last century was in the Sahel region of Africa.

_DB:_ That region of mostly grasslands suffered severe drought in the 1970s and 80s, in which millions of people died. Research meteorologist ” Thomas Delworth”:http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~td/ helped develop a computer model that simulates the past and future climate of Africa’s Sahel.

_JB:_ Delworth told Earth & Sky that as North Atlantic waters warm up, the rain belt is pulled north over the Sahel. But If the South Atlantic warms more than the North Atlantic, rain moves south and leaves the Sahel drier. Delworth added that greenhouse gases and aerosols – particles of dust, soot, and emissions from industry – also play a key role in the climate of Africa’s Sahel region.

_Thomas Delworth:_ Our model, one of the unique aspects, is that in the 20th century, in response solely to increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols, we simulate a drying trend in the Sahelian region of Africa, which looks a lot like the observed record. And so, therefore, we can place some credibility, I think, in the results of this model, because it reproduces the observations so well.

_DB:_ Delworth said this same model projects a continued drying of the Sahel – important information if those living in the region are to prepare. For more, come to earthsky.org. Thanks today to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We’re Block and Byrd for Earth & Sky.

Most computer models used to predict 21st century climate suggest that the drought-striken Sahel of Africa will get more rain. Read “Wetter climate predicted for African Sahel”:http://208.96.63.114/?p=2190, from Earth & Sky.

Thomas Delworth’s model, discussed on today’s radio program, indicates a worsening drought in the Sahel. The results of this model are contrary to what most other models predict. But Delworth’s model has the respect of other scientists, because it simulates a drying trend that looks a lot like what it observed in Africa.

Also see: “Climate change ‘will dry Africa’”:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4479640.stm, a November 2005 article from the BBC.

Our thanks to:
Thomas Delworth
Research Meteorologist
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
NOAA
Princeton, New Jersey

Written by EarthSky

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