Health officials in Mexico are attempting to zero in on the source of the swine flu that threatens to turn into a pandemic. The current theory is that it began with a young boy who lived near a large pig farm in Veracruz, Mexico. Then the disease spread rapidly through Mexico City, a crowded metropolis of 20 million people. When I heard about the epidemic, my first thought was this: It’s connected to water.
Here’s my theory: In early February, Mexico City began severe water rationing, reducing or completely cutting off water to 5.5 million people. The reason was the city is facing dangerously low water supplies, due to water mismanagement, reduced rainfall, and sprawling development. It was announced that the water shut-offs would continue until the rainy season, which begins in May. Between the lack of access to water, or households saving the precious water they had, I think it’s possible that many people stopped washing their hands.
The Center for Disease Control is recommending hand washing as a prevention against swine flu, and it’s been shown to protect against respiratory disease infection in general. So if people are living in a crowded city, and they’re not washing their hands as normal due to water shortages, the lapse of basic sanitation might create perfect conditions for a flu that jumps from person to person.
I haven’t yet seen any reports linking the water shortages to the spread of swine flu. That means my theory is the totally unscientific product of my own cognitive connections. But I think it may prove to be an interesting connection. Feel free to weigh in with your own wacky theories about the swine flu, or prove me wrong. And not to be your mom or anything, but remember to wash your hands.
Interesting Theory. So you’re saying that if it really started with the young boy, he was still getting his drink on but decided to come in one day after touching piggly wiggly’s and forgot to wash his hands before supper?
I think the lack of water (if this is actually true) accounts for a lot of problematic consequences other than the lack of washing your hands. Like not bathing in general for instance. What about the swine though? Maybe there’s more of a connection here like perhaps the water the pigs were drinking was shared between humans and whatnot. Maybe some village idiot decided that the water the pigs were drinking started to look appetizing.
This strikes me as a pretty sound wacky theory. I haven’t seen any reporting on or analysis of the impact that water shortages, which we all know are coming in an extreme way in the next few decades, will impact the spread of disease (although we read plenty on the impact on the spread of golf courses). The notion that charging more for water will help conserve water may just mean that, like Lindsay says, we will set ourselves up for global pandemics, because agriculture and food preparation certainly are not going away any time soon.
I would say your “wacky theory” has more merit than the reaction of the WHO and our governement. We are calling this a pandemic when fewer than 500 cases have been found world wide. Clearly not even an epidemic. Simply a scare tactic or an exercise.
The funny thing about the “swine” flu is that pigs don’t have it nor do they transfer it to humans. We have a lot to learn about viruses and how they replicate, mutate and move from one host to another. Generally, the infectious stage is before the symptoms appear. SO, after folks are sneezing and coughing, it is too late to quarrantine them or avoid them.
The idea of water shortages might have an effect might well be valid. In addition to not washing, a general water shortage might well cause stresses on individuals that could lower natural resistance giving the disease a start in the human population.
Remember, the Mayans that lived in that area were wiped out by drought centuries ago. Could we be seeing a rerun?
And to the previous comment by Sara: I think you are on the right track. “If goovernment is the answer, it is a stupid question.”
this is very not intresting, no one wants your opionns thanks/
I agree with Sara on her assessment of what water shortages might imply. Between agriculture, disease, and of course, concerns about drinking water, we have many reasons to get smarter about water.
So much of the water shortage has to do with water management and land use. For example, in the American Southwest, the depleting Colorado River is posing a choice between supplying desert cities like Las Vegas and Phoenix, and irrigating a huge amount of America’s agriculture. Eventually, there won’t be water enough for both, and people will start having to make smarter, more conservative choices with water.
In Mexico City, the problem is that the city’s aquifer was being pumped out faster than it had time to fill, in order to supply the sprawl. There was a lack of smart growth, and clearly, the correct steps were not taken when the water situation reached a critical level.
As far as the swine flu itself (or, as I’m trying to call it, the “H1N1″ virus), it has infected far more than 500 – the reason we freaked out to begin with is that it’s sickened 2,400 in Mexico. I’m not too sure about what the WHO’s entomology means, but they are probably not raising the levels of alert without case. I think it’s the role of the media to inform people about the flu and what they should do, what causes it, and that you can still eat pork (mmm…. pork tacos, bacon). I haven’t seen the 24-hour news cycle, but I’m sure it’s causing a lot of unnecessary face mask purchases.
Anyhow, I was happy that Obama told the nation to wash their hands at his press conference, like a good father of the country.
I think you’ve got something here, at least, a great starting point, thanks.
Lindsay, interesting idea. I’ll bet things in our world are much more connected – in more subtle ways – than we currently can imagine.
Sheer lunacy. As for deborahbyrd and everything being connected – well yeh!!! Equally bonkers. How far are you going to go with that thought? I’m surprised the ‘butterfly flapping its wings….’ and ‘for the want of a nail the shoe was lost; for the want of a shoe the horse was lost…’ sayings weren’t invoked. Equally surprising is that nobody has claimed the CIA/FBI/MI6 or aliens from Nibiru have had a hand/tentacle in the outbreak. Turn your energies to reading some science reports on it.
Lindsay: you are arriving at a conclusion that other have seen. When I was teaching a class this past summer on Environmental Science, I mentioned the disparity of fatalities in Mexico. “What was so special about this location?” I asked the class thinking out loud to myself. Then one of the T.A.’s mentioned that he had been to Mexico visiting relatives and pinpointed the ease of spread on the lack of water. Somehow this didn’t make mainstream news. Imagine only having access to water for a few hours every two weeks. You can only store so much. So then comes the decision, do you cook a meal or wash? Hygiene standards obviously drop. Not out of choice, but out of reality. He also stated his disbelief in that his relatives still paid their water bill for lousy service by USA standards. Their comment: if we don’t–then they’ll cut it off completely. One of medicine’s greatest inventions is hot water and soap. It may have more power than we realize.