Earthsky Interviews
Kerry Cook says Africa vulnerable to abrupt climate change
01-18-2010 - Earth
Kerry Cook: In Africa we have a special concern about abrupt climate change, because we know from the records of past climate that it’s possible for climate to change abruptly in this region.
Atmospheric scientist Kerry Cook specializes in the study of abrupt climate change – the kind of change that might rapidly transform a landscape over decades, as opposed to centuries. Cook said it’s extremely difficult to know exactly what type of climate change will affect the continent of Africa, in the coming years.
Kerry Cook: None of the climate models are indicating yet abrupt climate change for Africa, for the near future. But we don’t have huge confidence in our ability of the climate models for prediction over Africa.
Cook said that’s due to a combination of Africa’s complicated climate system, and a lack of observational records. Scientists rely on records of climate going back for at least 30 years in order to understand how climate works over a particular area.
Kerry Cook: You need to have observing systems in place for longer periods of time, say 50, 60, 70 years. And we simply have not had that for Africa. It seems like a luxury. If you don’t have enough to eat, it’s a luxury to put in a weather observing station.
Cook’s climate models predict that by the end of the 21st century, Africans will experience more hardship due to increased temperatures, droughts, and flooding. If these climate changes come abruptly, she worries that the continent will be left with little time to mitigate the impact.
Kerry Cook: That’s why the goal today is to create resiliency – in economic systems, and agricultural systems, that support peoples lives. So that when climate change comes, they’ll be able to cope with it.
Cook said paleoclimate records show that Africa has the potential for abrupt climate change – changes that take place over a few decades or less, and then persist over a long period of time.
Kerry Cook: Given our concerns about the populations being very vulnerable to climate change, we have a special concern about abrupt climate change in Africa. It’s a very complicated climate system, especially for West Africa. It’s very dependent on sea surface temperatures, on the exact patterns of sea surface temperature increases that we might see in the future.
EarthSky asked why it’s so difficult to predict climate change in Africa.
Kerry Cook: There are fewer studies over that area, and fewer studies over a longer period of time. For climate change induced by greenhouse gases, time scales are decadal – 10 years, 20 years, 30 years. So in order to study climate change on that time scale, we need to understand climate variability on that time scale and the processes that cause climate to change on those time scales. And in order to get at that, you need observing systems in place for longer periods of time – say 50, 60, 70 years. And we do not have that for Africa.
Written by Lindsay Patterson
2 Responses to “Kerry Cook says Africa vulnerable to abrupt climate change”
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Kerry Cook
Kerry Cook is a professor in the Department of Geological Geosciences at the University of Texas at Austin. Dr. Cook studies the physics of abrupt climate change – past and future – over northern Africa and the central U.S., in order to understand the seasonal cycle and potential for climate change over East Africa. >>
Africa is not unique in its vulnerability to climare change. The entire earth is equally so. Our geologic history shows many abrupt climate changes. These might be due t ovvolcanic activity, meteor or comet strikes, variability in the output of the sun and variability of the earth’s orbit about the sun. Just a small drop or rise in the solar energy striking the earth will and has had enormous impact on our climate.
A bit of warming could be very beneficial to humans on the planet in that it would allow agriculture to be conducted at higher latitudes. A small drop in temperature could cripple agriculture in the higher lattitudes. Humans and animals are adaptable creatures. Short of a drastic and quick change in climate, life will go on. There have always been changes and change will be with us for the life of the planet.5t121
There is no mechanism in the climate system for “abrupt” changes, at least at the human scale. Climate (the long term smoothing of weather averages) changes very slowly and on multi-decadal upward and downward step trends. Hypothetically speaking, if climate could change abruptly, Africa, along with all other continents would be vulnerable. But any changes that may occur will be gradual and will provide ample opportunity for humanity to identify and implement adaptation solutions. Of course, the poorer nations will be hardest impacted should adaptation be required.