The multiple earthquakes off the coast of Japan today are causing many people to ask if earthquake prediction is possible. Scientists have a pretty good idea of where an earthquake is likely to strike, but there is still no way to tell exactly when it will happen, or how big it will be.
Earthquakes are caused by plate tectonics – the continuous movement of immense plates of land along Earth’s surface. Plates bump up against each other at ruptures known as ‘fault lines.’ The side-to-side or up-and-down motion along fault lines causes enormous shock waves, which are felt as earthquakes. Scientists know where these fault lines are, and have made maps of where earthquakes are most likely to happen.
EarthSky spoke with Kathleen Tierney of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado. She said that because no one can make predictions about earthquakes far in advance, people in high-risk areas always need to be prepared.
Some communities have warning systems. Earthquake-prone Japan developed a national alert system in 2007, which tries to alert the public the moment scientists detect a large tremor. The Japanese system doesn’t rely on seismology alone. It also relies on a well-informed population. In other parts of the world, where populations may be more demographically diverse, getting out earthquake-preparedness information can be challenging.
For now, Tierney advised, people in vulnerable areas should stay vigilant and have an earthquake-preparedness plan, especially when it’s been a while since the last quake.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and partner organizations in California are doing research to understand what benefits an earthquake early warning system might have in California.
Even though there is currently no way to predict earthquakes, seismologist Mike Blanpied of the USGS has grounds for optimism. According to Blanpied, “There is increased amounts of data, new theories and powerful computer programs and scientists are using those to explore ways that earthquakes might be predicted in the future. We can certainly hope that someday we’ll be in a world where an earthquake can be anticipated and predicted before it occurs.”
If you want to know about whether earthquakes can be predicted why not look at the places they are doing the prediction research rather than asking people (the usgs and university rock hounds) who say they don’t know how?
http://www.electricquakes.org has a lot of information on possible prediction useful precursors.
Nobody is claiming that scientists (and others) are not trying to predict earthquakes. That goal has been the holy grail of earthquake scholarship for hundreds of years. But the fact is that earthquakes cannot be predicted, if by \”prediction\” we mean specifying a location and a reasonably narrow (i.e., not in hundreds of years) time window. Many scientific groups provide \”projections\” and \”earthquake probabilities\” for particular regions over time, but those are not the same as \”predictions\” as the term is generally understood.
“Nobody is claiming that scientists (and others) are not trying to predict earthquakes. That goal has been the holy grail of earthquake scholarship for hundreds of years”
Sorry but this is factually incorrect. The USGS for years specifically said it couldn’t be done and said they weren’t trying – until others stepped in. As of the now the USGS is merely debating whether or not it is even beneficially to predict them – if you can believe that. They also said all earthquakes were random and distant fault couldn’t trigger other faults – all since proved false.
” the fact is that earthquakes cannot be predicted, if by \”prediction\” we mean specifying a location and a reasonably narrow (i.e., not in hundreds of years) time window.”
you are stating an opinion as fact which is incorrect.
infact earthquakes have been predicted within very short tiem windows and locations.
Northridge was predicted by ultra long wave radio anomalies and faxed to the news the day before. Not one of a million faxes but one fax the day before.
Italy was predicted by ground radon excretion in a city.
there are more an more methods being discovered.
In croatia they predict via a sudden mis correlation between the three magnet field orinetation readings.
The Demeter satellite has recently detected night time ion increases over earthquake epicenters before they happen within the next two weeks.
Infrared detection of fault heating has also been used to detect specific faults under increasing stress that break within the month or even week.
You need to educate yourself before flatly stating your opinions as facts. I suggest you start at http://www.electricquakes.org which does a good job of keeping up with and explaining the latest techniques and papers as well as posting live data sources to study.
If you refuse to believe it is possible and therefore refuse to study it then you have no right to represent yourself online as a scientist with expertise in the matter.
“Many scientific groups provide \”projections\” and \”earthquake probabilities\” for particular regions over time, but those are not the same as \”predictions\” as the term is generally understood.”
No one is talking about those groups.
If you recognise that dams cause worldwide earthquakes,you can zoom in and see that in the rainfall season rapid build up of dam waters cause them. During the dry season, water consumption rates cause them. Behind water consumption rates, there are industrial and agricultural rates and electrical load demands which draw water so rapidly as to cause order of magnitude higher water pressure changes to appear at centers of gravity of heavily dammed regions than the height of the Everest in a fraction of a second and every other second. That Hydro generators cause this so fiercely can be seen in the appropriate sum total of good old daily load curves for a peak load day(Mon thru Fri). The result has been major and great earthquakes occurring as frequently as the horrors created by suicide bombers! See the story unravelled in the website indicated. Haiti and Chile are only the most recent catastrophes even as I am predicting such horrors for this month from the 13th to the 19th(March 2010). One predicts because the past becomes the future in a business as usual way of life.
please shut up, u cannot predict an earthquake. Nobody can ever predict when the plates will shift. It’s always going to be at random times.
http://earthquake-prediction.hit.bg
This time is true.
The KING of the earthquakes.
Geo is explaining there are some unexplored areas in geophysics and a lack
of understanding of all the important factors involved in a phenomena witnessed
as an earthquake. Some are tiny tremors, some are mighty temblors. In every area of science there have those who have gone ahead and experimented with findings often ridiculed by the establishment. More important that predicting earthquakes would be preventing them. This will be part of astrophysics once it is understand the Solar cycle is involved in planetary mechanics. Work in in 19th century, on cyclones, volcanic eruptions,
earthquakes and other phenomena are consequential to certain bands of earth currents, constantly passing between the poles, and on opposited sides of the globe, the bands moving from East to West on a regular phasic basis. Normally, the power generated finds no resistance and dissipates. But when irregular formations and constructs occur, they become susceptible to pent up energies which eventually must be released by dint of force which can even move tectonic plates. At some future time man will find out how to dissipate the buildup of such enormous energy without disastrous plate movements.
Before then, new measuring means might make it possible to predict earthquakes, and where, with a high degree of reliability.
what is going to happen since the earths axis has been shifted and japan has sunk and that we shifted 13 feet??? can this be predicted
Angela, it can be predicted that Earth’s crust will move around. It has been moving around for billions of years.
The exact amount by which it’ll move in the future cannot be predicted.
All the best,
Deborah
Just a note. Anyone can predict an earthquake. It doesn’t mean that an earthquake is going to occur because of that person’s prediction. You could put some factors together, but the percentage of accuracy is going to be low. You could search history, and try and find certain paterns, but just as in “horse racing,” you could hit streaks at times, but then go cold. For example, when earthquakes occur, animals are sometimes said to act “strange.” If a person comes to the conclusion that an earthquake is going to occur, because an animal “acts strange,” then that person would probably be predicting an earthquake two or three times a month. The new example is the dead sea life. When the earthquake hit in New Zealand this year, dead whales were found on the shores a few days before the earthquake. If someone puts those two things together, they would find out that in 2011, there has been a number of incidents in different countries where dead sea life has washed ashore…but did earthquakes occur right after?
Good point Festus.
Perhaps earthquakes can be predicted by monitoring magnetic fields along fault lines?
why researchers are not close to pridicing when big earthquakes will happen ???