Global warming and excess snowfall? Yes.
More precipitation – and snowstorms like those of the winter of 2010 – are part of what scientists predict for a warming world. In other words, as the global temperature increases, moisture in the atmosphere increases due to evaporation from Earth’s surface. To put it simply, water goes up, and later at least some of that water comes down again in the form of heavy snow or rain. This is just Earth’s well-understood hydrological cycle in action.
Climate scientists have said for years that snowfall might increase, in the short term, due to global warming. For example, in 2003, the Union of Concerned Scientists said that “an increase in global temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle.”
Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground has pointed out that there are two requirements for a record snow storm:
1) A near-record amount of moisture in the air (or a very slow moving storm).
2) Temperatures cold enough for snow.
Global warming or no global warming, some parts of Earth will continue to have below freezing temperatures. Those freezing temps, plus increasing water vapor in the air are likely to mean increasing snowfall. Maybe even a record snowfall. That’s why, when some people mocked Al Gore following the early February, 2010 snowstorm that blanketed the U.S. northeast and mid-Atlantic, they were off base, according to the latest science.
If you know anything about climate science, you know it is very complex. As a result, climate scientists – using some of the the world’s most powerful computers – cannot give us an exact prediction about what our world’s future climate will bring. They can, however, alert us to meaningful trends, such as the trend toward global warming in the 21st century.
The complexity of Earth’s climate also explains why some areas of the world will experience drought, even as others are experiencing heavier rainfall or snowfall. At least, that’s what climate models suggest.
Climate models suggest that mid- to high-latitudes may experience the greatest amount of increased precipitation while lower latitudes – places closer to the equator – may experience less precipitation (rainfall) than usual.
Snow images in this post by: Zolt Levay
See Zolt’s album Snowpocalypse ’10 on Facebook.
Or see his snow photos on Flickr.
Mark, again, weather and climate are two separate things. Washington, DC has different weather each season, Climate refers to global not local events. Climate changes impact local weather. What was not rational about this article? Can you point to an exact sentence that wasn’t? They are describing why what we are seeing this winter fits within an overall planet warming trend- but that doesn’t mean there won’t be variation season to season or year to year (look at historical trends, we always have yearly variation) we will however keep seeing more drastic fluctuations in the future. We are also in an El- Nino year which itself is different from last winter… climate science is very complex. This negates your whole comment pretty much. Where is your objectiveness?
Me like snow. Me want snow cone.
I agree with Deborah that the issue of whether the globe is warming and the issue of human influence are both supported overwhelmingly by both theory and observation–and that the vast majority (to put it mildly) of actual experts on the many facets of this question agree that this is the case.
However, Mark does make the valid point that heat waves are often invoked as evidence for global warming while cold snaps are dismissed out of hand as evidence against. It’s natural that people should wonder if there’s a double standard involved.
In fact, no single event is evidence for much of anything, so anyone on either side of the argument who pretends otherwise is being misleading.
However–the number of record hot days around the world has increased over the past decade or two while the number of record cold days has decreased. The number of heat waves has increased. These are statistical observations, not single-event observations, and they DO point to a warming trend.
One last thing: the U.S. East Coast did experience a couple of huge snowstorms in the past couple of weeks–but these were NOT accompanied by anything close to record cold. As long as it’s below freezing, you can have snow, and below-freezing temps in February are hardly unusual in the northeastern US. You could have more global warming than is currently projected for the rest of this century and still have snowstorms.
Beyond which, the Eastern US is only one part of the world. More than 30 people died in Paraguay this week in an unrelenting heat wave.
Mike, I did not hear about Paraguay. That is tragic.
I did hear that they are having to bring in snow for the winter Olympics in Vancouver …
“If you know anything about climate science, you know it is very complex. That’s why climate scientists – using some of the the world’s most powerful computers – cannot give us an exact prediction about what our world’s future climate will bring.” This may be the most accurate paragraph in the story. I’m curious. When there was little or no snowfall in DC, did you publish this same story, as the “climate deniers” as you call them were not the ones using anecdotal information to support their claims then? If you did, my apologies. If you didn’t, then why are you doing it now? Please stick to science, if you can. Objective, rational science.
Hi Mark! We’re doing this now because this section is called Frequently Asked Questions. And people have been asking.
You’re right. EarthSky is not objective on the subject of global warming at this time. That’s because the great majority of climate scientists say that global warming is real and caused by humans. And EarthSky is a voice for science.
All best,
Deborah
Mark, why do you want an apology from E&S?
Others … during the first mid-Atlantic blizzard, i noticed something interesting in the country-wide weather radar images. The low pressure was practically siphoning water out of the warm Gulf of Mexico, along I-95! It was amazing, like a river-cloud of water racing up the coast. Then it hit the cold air and we had quite a blizzard, complete with thunder and lightning. It was a very impressive storm! The second blizzard that hit us three days ago had some pretty nasty winds, thanks to two high pressure regions joining forces. The barometric pressure at the \’eye\’ was equivalent to that seen in a cat. 1 hurricane. Winds were pretty awful!
Shireen, this week\’s snowstorm is NOT unprecedented. The storm that pounded New England in 1978 was a \”Winter hurricane\” complete with an obvious eye. The state of Mass. was under what we\’d now call a Level 3 snow emergency for a week. People in Cambridge and elsewhere were cross-country skiing to get groceries. When one skiier was struck & killed by a train, skiing was prohibited.
Incidentally, I sold my house with 24\” of snow on the roof.
Tom, it\’s unprecedented for Baltimore and Washington DC — that was the context for my comments. That storm broke all known weather records here. As a weather geek, I found it to be very exciting. But I also recognize the hardships and tragedy it brought.
Congratulations on selling your house! :)
The world’s most powerful computers are just BIG calculators that rely on the input of good or FLAWED programming. Garbage in garbage out! The predicted warming (or cooling) is in the details of the “what ifs” and assumptions inside the software, NOT in the multiple CPUs in a supercomputer.
Climatology, one of our youngest sciences, seems to have most all the “questions” already solved in ONLY 1-2 decades! Amazing!
Years ago there was a toy recall on a plastic chair that had a sharp end that might cause a cut on a child, every one that had one took them back to the store for a new one that had a rounded end that couldn’t cut. So if we might be having a negative affect on our world why are the same people who didnt want to take a chance on a cut are willing to chance the future of mankind on this planet?
Several really easy steps if made by everyone would slow the process, what is considered and inconvienence would be habit andd all would be good.. Mindblowing, why are people fighting this so hard?
I am not saying we are causing climate change, i am not saying we are not…but if there is a chance shouldn’t we be taking some precautions?
Amen! I love the anology. I think some people like to argue for the sake of arguing. What about being prepared? Isn’t anyone in the scouts anymore?
I am curious on this also, in 2009 we had the coldest July in recorded history. 15 years ago I used to go to Alum Creek, a local beech, there were several weeks in a row then with 90 degree plus temps. The last 10 years it has just been too cold to go. Now with 49 states getting snow, (if Hawaii were to have snow in their mountains, it would be a first for ALL 50 states to have snow), one has to wonder? Our contribution of C02 is small percentage wise, and methane is 21 time more powerful of a greenhouse gas. If global warming is real, I believe we need to attach “exhaust pipes” to the rear of cattle, and find a way to totally eliminate termites! Those two alone would produce a major shift in green house emissions. However, back to the snow, it is also a fact that with this much snow cover, a lot of the suns heat is reflected back into space, thus lowering temperatures. We are getting closer to the “Aquarian Age” too, could this also be impacting all the weather change due to the vernal equinox moving through the sidereal zodiac? As was stated earlier in this thread, you can have all those super computers crunching numbers, but if you do not put the right information in, you are not going to get accurate (real value data) information out.
Just for reference, I am a Systems Engineer and Programmer, switching fields currently to Particle Physics and I have been pondering some of these questions and many, many more.
Hi Dave.
I’m curious. When you say “. . . in 2009 we had the coldest July in recorded history,” are you speaking of the planet Earth in general or Alum Creek?
Referring to the moon (rather than the climate or weather), the moon came closer to Earth on December 12, 2008 than it had since March 3, 1993. But that in itself doesn’t necessarily mean the moon is overall coming closer to Earth. In fact, astronomers tell us that the moon’s mean distance from Earth is increasing at some 3.8 centimeters (1.5 inches) per year.
In like vein, I doubt that we can jump to any conclusions about climate change from a few seasonal aberrations.
Bruce
I am amazed. A publication called “Earth & Sky” that claims “real science” is behind the ridiculous claim that global warming is “mostly man made”? Have any of you mesmerized drones looked UP lately from the Earth into the Sky and seen this huge ball of thermonuclear fire only 93 million miles away? It’s very bright and hot. A vanishingly small variation in the rate of energy *emission* from this object would also explain why the Earth is changing temperature, would it not? It would also explain why the other planets in the Solar system are experiencing similar temperature changes. There have even been color changes reported on Pluto, commensurate with a change in the ice layers due to heating.
As for snowfall and temperature, perhaps the warming has caused evaporation of ocean water, which will cause increased snowfall. But it would also mean increased cloud cover. This will increase the ALBEDO (You have heard of albedo, haven’t you?) of the Earth, resulting in a decrease in absorbed solar heat, and a lowering of planetary temperature. Climate is a function of feedback mechanisms over time. Man is a natural part of the feedback system, a system that will adapt to our presence and our input. Stop treating Man as if he were an alien presence on his own world!
Assuming global warming MUST be man-made is the the penultimate of arrogance and hubris. Cherry-picking the data to MAKE it man-made is the ultimate. Science is a matter of seeing what is, and asking how and why it is that way. It is not a matter of seeing what is, and figuring out how to make it mean what you want it to mean.
If the Earth is warming, fine. Show your data. Then find the cause. Don’t assume the cause, then try to find data to support it at the exclusion of all else. That isn’t science, that’s religion. REAL science allows for the exploration of more than one hypothesis without prejudice. When “scientists” say that another scientist cannot explore a different theory for the observed phenomenon because they have “already reached consensus”, they are not practicing science. They are establishing dogma.
Hi Debra,
I’m baaaaack after about a year and a half hiatus.
I just love this zinger:
“More precipitation – and snowstorms like those of the winter of 2010 – are part of what scientists predict for a warming world.”
I find it astounding/amusing that EarthSky.org, with a definitive link, is not stepping up and admitting the period of warming over the past several decades was due to unprecedented solar sunspot activity.
Now observe the zero sunspot activity for the past three years at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center’s Solar Physics group:
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml
NASA predicted the slow down in the sun 4 years ago:
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm
It’s getting colder Debra, and it’s going to get colder so long as the sun continues in it’s dormant state.
Maybe now you will understand why the Mayans and Incas worshiped the sun.
Hi norcalguy101. Sorry your comment wasn’t automatically approved. Our system requires manual approval on any comment with two links or more.
EarthSky is a voice for science. When climate scientists as a group reach the conclusion that – as you believe – “it’s getting colder,” EarthSky will report that. Until then, we’ll follow what the great majority of climate scientists believe: that global warming is real and caused at least in part by humans.
All the best,
Deborah
global warming is not real! but thats no reason to not go green. but the “theory” is “global warming is a thing of extreams if it winter is ‘sposed to be really really cold and in summer super hot. compared to normally cold or hot??????