Satellite researcher Alan Belward works for the Institute for Environment and Sustainability, part of the European Commission’s Joint Research Center in Ispra, Italy. Dr. Belward heads the Land Resource Management Unit, which looks at changes to land cover and land use on a global scale. In 2011, Dr. Belward was part of the most comprehensive forest survey ever, which involved 190 countries. An essential tool for his research is data from the Landsat satellite program, which has taken detailed pictures of forest canopies for over 40 years. Dr. Belward spoke with EarthSky’s Jorge Salazar about tracking Earth’s forests from space.

Image Credit: David Patte/US Fish and Wildlife

Dr. Belward, you are the Head of the Land Resource Management Unit within the Institute for Environment and Sustainability at the European Commission’s Joint Research Center in Italy. Tell us about what you do.

The Land Resource Management Unit is one of eight scientific units. A unit is a group of scientists all working on a common theme. There are about 1,400 of us full-time here at this research center in northern Italy. We provide scientific evidence for European policy-making on issues like climate change, global development, and sustainable development programs. Our policy makers have an increasing demand for science-based evidence to support their work. One of our jobs is to provide that evidence.

In the land resource management area, the basic fact is that natural resources, like forests and land to grow crops, are getting more and more scarce. There’s a lot more pressure on them. There’s a lot of competition now. Do you use a forest as a carbon sink? Do you use it as a protected area for biodiversity? Or do you use it for fuel wood? There are all sorts of competing demands on our resources. To make sensible decisions on trade-offs between different uses, you need evidence on where these resources are, what sort of condition they’re in, and how they’re changing.

Tell us about your involvement in the Global Forest Remote Sensing Survey for the U.N., which assessed how humans are changing forests on a global scale. What did you find, and how was it done?

Bolivia 1987. This image and the one below depict deforestation in the same location in Bolivia. Green is vegetated area and the pink-magenta areas are non vegetated. You can see areas that were clear cut and that have new vegetation (crop lands most likely) as well as areas with no vegetation. Blue is water, and you can clearly see a major river on the left edge of the images. White puffy shapes are clouds. Image Credit: NASA

This is something that the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has actually been doing since the 1940s. Every few years they produce this detailed report on the state of the world’s forests. For the last few years these reports rely on statistics provided by the different countries around the world. I think more than 190 countries give them statistics on where the forests are and how much forest there is and what they’re doing with it.

Bolivia 2011. Both of these images were created using Landsat data, using a combination of true color and infrared to produce these results. Image Credit: NASA

But for the last few years, they’ve also been running a remote sensing survey. They have been using satellite imagery as an independent assessment of the state of forest resources. We work with them as one of the partners on that survey.

What they found is that about 30 percent of the whole planet’s land area, starting in 2005, was covered in forest. And rather worryingly between 1990 and 2005, we’ve lost about 180 million acres of forest. That’s rather a lot.

These big numbers are quite scary. Most of us can picture what a football field looks like. Now, if you can imagine that all covered in forest, it takes something less than four seconds to lose that entire area of forest. We’re losing about a football field worth of forest every four seconds of every minute of every day. That’s net loss. That’s including all the new trees that have been planted around the world. When I say we’ve lost 180 million acres, that’s really gone. It’s not been replaced by new stuff.

It doesn’t matter what you’re doing or where you’re doing it, somewhere around the planet there’s a tree falling, and it’s fallen for good.

How is satellite data from Landsat used in the Global Forest Remote Sensing Survey?

Landsat is a global system. We’re looking at every point on the Earth’s surface with the same amount of detail, with the same scientific rigor. We’re making the same measurements. That’s extremely important, because it means when I make a statement about forest cover change around me here in northern Italy, or in the center of the African Congo basin, we’re using the same measurement, the same precision today.

What we’ve done with colleagues at the UN FAO is we’ve taken about 13,000 plots around the world which are distributed uniformly, every 60 miles or so, north, south, east, and west. We take a sample plot and we map the change in an area of about 25 acres. That is done 13,000 times in 1990, in 2000, and in 2005. The other delightful thing about Landsat is, because it’s up there in orbit, it comes back time after time, so that we can look at this change over time. We can keep going back to the same 13,000 points and find out what’s happened.

Landsat provides us with a really quite detailed picture of the forest canopy. It’s not just a photograph. It’s actually measuring light outside the range of sensitivity to the human eye. So it’s giving us extra information than a normal photograph. We’re able to pick up subtle changes in the forest canopy. You can see where you’ve got largely undisturbed forests or where a logging road has gone in or where it’s been clear felled to convert it to other lands.

It depends where you are in the world as to what the main driver of deforestation is. In some parts of the world it’s clearing land to grow new crops. In other parts of the world it’s getting rid of the forest so you can convert it into ranch land for cattle. Elsewhere, it’s to make room for new forest so you can put in timber for oil palm.

Coastal redwoods in northern California. Image Credit: TFCforever

How important is Landsat in monitoring how humans are changing forests worldwide?

I have to say Landsat is an absolutely unique tool for us. I think it’s unique for three reasons, really.

One is the longevity of the program. Where else can we get a chance to look back at part of the world for 40 years? We can go back to 1972 for various points on the planet’s surface and look at how that forest has changed. Longevity is a dramatic factor. It’s the definitive source. It’s the only way we can go back that far in time consistently around the planet.

The second point is its consistency around the planet. It’s global. Right from the beginning, the people managing the Landsat program have gone out of their way to make sure that there’s imagery from different parts of the world. We’ve not just concentrated with the U.S., for example. We’ve looked everywhere.

The final real bonus is over the last few years, our data archive was opened up for free and open access.

Those three factors, the longevity, the global data acquisition program and the free and open data access, really it is a wonderfully valuable resource for forest monitoring.

Scientists have told EarthSky that deforestation, happening mainly in developing countries, is a big part of the carbon emissions that cause climate change. How useful is Landsat data to the international community concerned with climate?

It’s a fundamental part of the scientific armory in information gathering. With Landsat, we’ve got the opportunity to make consistent measurements on forest cover change. When we talk about deforestation accounting for 12 percent of all anthropogenic emissions, it’s something like 1.2 pentagrams of carbon a year emitted from deforestation — big scary numbers. The big issue is the uncertainty. The general estimates of deforestation could be off by 40 or 50 percent, based on all the different estimates that are made on the ground. The remote sensing survey is allowing us to stand back a bit, look at the whole planet consistently and make some of the most robust sets of measurements. Gradually over the years, we’re getting more and more precise understanding of what these rates of deforestation are. That’s the first thing.

The second thing is that it’s actually quickly moving to the point where it will provide us with very detailed maps of not just the statistics of the change, but actual maps of where these forests lie. The very first map of global land cover from Landsat is pretty much underway at the moment, with the Chinese actually running that one. This is beginning to become available to the scientific community. That will feed into a lot of climate models, because you need to know whether you’re dealing with a big, dark, wet, carbon-absorbing forest or a bright dry reflective desert. We’re getting very detailed maps now from Landsat and that all important measure of change.

Our thanks today to the NASA and USGS Landsat Program, creating an unparalleled record of Earth’s changing landscapes.

Listen to the 8-minute and 90-second EarthSky interviews with Alan Belward on tracking changes to Earth’s forests from space, at the top of the page.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reported a powerful 6.7-magnitude earthquake in the Philippines on February 6, 2012 at 03:49 UTC (February 5 at 9:49 p.m. CST), centered on the central Philippine island of Negros. The earthquake took place 356 miles (573 km) south-southeast of Manila. No tsunami warning is in effect.

The powerful earthquake killed at least 15 people, and many are still missing, according to the BBC. However, local reports are now putting the death toll higher (as high as 40, and above). Government offices and schools were ordered to close today, according to Reuters.

Earthquakes in Philippines February 6, 2012

There have been a series of at least five strong aftershocks (magnitudes 4.8, 5.6, 6.0, 5.8, 5.2) according to USGS.

Here are the specifics of the 6.7-magnitude earthquake:

Region: NEGROS- CEBU REG, PHILIPPINES
Geographic coordinates: 9.964N, 123.245E
Magnitude: 6.8 Mw
Depth: 46 km
Universal Time (UTC): 6 Feb 2012 03:49:16
Time near the Epicenter: 6 Feb 2012 11:49:16
Local standard time in your area: 6 Feb 2012 03:49:16

Location with respect to nearby cities:
70 km (44 miles) N (355 degrees) of Dumaguete, Negros, Philippines
79 km (49 miles) WNW (298 degrees) of Tagbilaran, Bohol, Philippines
80 km (50 miles) SSE (158 degrees) of Bacolod, Negros, Philippines
573 km (356 miles) SSE (154 degrees) of MANILA, Philippines

Bottom line: A 6.7 magnitude earthquake rocked the Philippines on February 6, 2012 killing at least 15 people, including two children.

Read more from USGS

Read more from Reuters

Andy Gabrielson, founder of FindTheTornado.com, passed away Saturday, February 4, 2012 in a car accident near Tulsa, Oklahoma. He was hit in a head-on collision due to a wrong-way driver near the town of Sapulpa. The accident directly killed Andy and one other person. Four total cars were involved in the accident, which was caused by a drunken driver behind the wheel.

Andy Gabrielson was known for his amazing footage documenting severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. His dedication and passion for storms was evident as he continuously provided the National Weather Service valuable information that helped save many lives. The entire meteorology community is saddened to hear about the passing of Andy Gabrielson. Although I have never met Andy personally, I really admire his work as a storm chaser. I want to dedicate this post to you Andy.

Here’s one of Andy Gabrielson’s best footage. If you fast forward to three minutes, you will see an up-close EF-4 tornado.

The night before Andy passed away, he was storm chasing in the Texas area. Television station WFAA actually interviewed Andy prior to the storm chase. Once WFAA heard the news of Andy’s death, they compiled video to pay tribute to Andy Gabrielson.

Here’s a few comments from Andy’s friends and well known meteorologists/storm chasers:

Ginger Zee (ABC News Headquarters Meteorologist):

Heavy heart this morning as we all mourn the loss of an amazing man, father, and stormchaser. Andy G…Your passion for life and weather was so inspiring. Your friendship meant so much to so many. Rest in peace.

Reed Timmer (Storm Chasers):

His passion and willingness to grind out more miles than anyone is inspirational.

Jim Cantore (The Weather Channel):

I am devastated by the loss of our friend Andy Gabrielson. I loved this man for what he stood for and how he wasn’t afraid to push it.

Mike Scantline (Storm Chase TV):

I love you man. Thanks for makin me chase when I didn’t want to and thanks for being the coolest dude I know. RIP buddy

After Andy passed away, over 500 chasers and spotters online came together to pay tribute to remember Andy. You can see for yourself:

Stephen Locke posted/created a video in honor of Andy Gabrielson. He said-

I had been reworking this piece when I got the news. My creative energy was displaced by grief. The only way I could finish was to dedicate this to him. This little movie best describes how I feel about Andy.

Prayers go out to Andy Gabrielson’s family and friends. If you would like to donate to the Andy Gabrielson fund, please click on this link.

If anything was taught from this awful accident, it is that you should never drink and drive. Not only can it change your life, but you can also affect so many other people. Andy was an innocent person who was in the wrong place at the wrong time. Andy was only 24 years old.

While most of the United States has been mild for most of winter 2012, other parts of the world have had to deal with significant cold temperatures and heavy snowfall. A week-long and still persisting cold wave has hit Europe. Very cold temperatures below zero have killed 223 people in Europe alone, and that count could grow as the cold air looks to remain in place this weekend and for parts of next week. Meanwhile, in the United States, a significant snow storm developed around Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. It has brought over two feet of snow in some areas. Will the parts of the U.S. experiencing a mild winter soon see these cold temperatures seen in Europe?

Location of Ukraine in Europe. Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

In Europe, at least 223 people have died from the extreme cold temperatures. Ukraine is reportedly the biggest hit area with nearly 100 deaths in the country. Most of these deaths were due to people being homeless and not having a place to stay warm. In Kyiv, Ukraine, temperatures dropped to -27 degrees Celsius (-17° Fahrenheit). Nearly 1,600 residents in Ukraine alone have been hospitalized due to hypothermia and frostbite. The cold air has pushed significant south, and areas in Venice, Italy has their canals begin to freeze. Many people were found dead in streets in a few countries. The Czech Republic had a record low temperature of -38.1°C. Rome, Italy saw accumulations of snow in some areas, which is a rare occurrence for the city. In fact, the snowfall recorded in the city was the biggest snowfall in 26 years. Nearly eight inches (20 centimeters) fell in Rome, which shut down the Colosseum, stranded motorists, and brought trees falling on cars due to the heavy weight of the snow. In Bosnia, the local government declared a state of emergency for the capital in Sarajevo. More than three feet of snow (one meter) fell in Sarajevo, and nearly 60,000 people were cut off by the snow.

Superior, Colorado snow on February 3, 2012. Image Credit: Kelly Keene

Snow in Colorado. Image Credit: Kelly Keene

In the United States, impressive snow amounts occurred in parts of Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Kansas. Here are a few snowfall totals:

Black Hawk, Colorado – 48 inches
Evergreen, Colorado – 36 inches
Stapleton, Nebraska – 8 inches
Laramie, Wyoming – 26 inches
Sand Creek Reservoir, Wyoming – 18 inches

Snowfall totals on February 3, 2012 across Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas. Image Credit: NOHRSC

At Denver International Airport, the 12.5 inches of snow that fell on February 3, 2012 broke many records. This snowfall broke their record of 7.5 inches set back on February 3, 1932. The 12.5 inches of snow also broke a daily snowfall record for the month of February. The previous record was 9.5 inches of snow on February 22, 1909 and February 19, 1953. The overall snowfall total accumulation for Denver International Airport that began on February 2 and ended on February 4 was 15.9 inches. This accumulation establishes a new three-day snowfall total for the month of February. The previous record occurred back in 1912 with a total of 14.1 inches.

Snow in Colorado. Image Credit: Kelly Keene

Bottom line: Cold temperatures spread westward from Russia and pushed into parts of Europe. Nearly 223 people have died from extremely cold temperatures, with the Ukraine hit hardest. The cold wave is expected to continue this weekend and into early next week with temperatures at least 20 degrees below average. Across the United States, Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska were hit with very heavy snow. Many snowfall records were broken at Denver International Airport and some mountainous areas saw over three feet of snow. For the lower 48 of the United States, the weather models are still jumping all over the place with cold temperatures and possible storms. If anything is consistent, it does appear that some cold air will invade the eastern United States come mid-February, and as soon as late next week (prior to Valentine’s Day). There remains high uncertainty in the forecasts due to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forecasts. It seems like every model run is unsure whether or not the NAO will drop negative or pull positive during this time frame. If the NAO becomes negative, it could make for some interesting times across the eastern United States. If this is true, perhaps that silly groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, will be correct about six more weeks of winter!

In early 2012, Stephen O’Meara of Volcano Watch International sent these images of lava flow on December 24, 2011 from Kilauea Volcano, the youngest and southeastern most volcano on the Big Island of Hawaii.

He wrote:

In mid-December 2011, lava flows from Kilauea Volcano made a long journey from an inland cone to the sea. The surface flows advanced near the extreme eastern edge of the Hawaiian Volcanoes National Park boundary, requiring a roughly seven-mile hike across hardened lava to reach the flows. These images show activity along the western edge of that long and broad flow on X-Mas Eve Day.

I thought EarthSky readers might be interested in these sample photos. The wide flow field was very active along the western edge, with some small lava falls and many surface breakouts. The lava falls were on the order of six to eight feet (vertical). There were several ocean entries, with sluggish transitional and Aa lava, with cascading or rolling fragments.

Above right: A molten lava flow plunges about eight feet into a deep depression (originally about 15 feet deep) and ponds. You can see the older lava rock over which the lava flows. As the lava falls onto the surface below, the lava continues to flow (backward) into a deep cavity, called a lava tube, created many years earlier. In time, the lava will completely fill this tube, as well as the depression. As the lava descends, sections of it stretches (like mozzarella cheese) into thin strands of glass called Pele’s Hair.

Above: A lobe of molten lava (on the right) greets another lobe of molten lava (on the left) whose surface has already begun to cool. The top of a lava flow cools instantly into a silvery grey crust. The lava within stays red hot and glowing. Sunlight shining through the glassy surface creates the shiny iridescence. Different colors reflect the different densities in the “glass.”

Above: When an advancing lava flows slows and cools, its surface starts immediately to crust over. But if the pressure feeding the flow is great enough, lava can break through the cooling crust and create stunning spectacles such as this lava cascade.

Above: Dual lava flows breaking through cooling lava crust over a natural depression in the landscape. Note how the silver skin of the crust insulates the molten lava inside. Such basalt flows are usually 50 percent silica glass and have temperatures of 900-1200? C / 1650 – 2190? F.

Above: A lava cataract ~25 feet across and ~10- to 15-feet tall. As the lava streams forward its banks cool and thicken forming a natural semi-sold levee. The hot molten center of the river keeps flowing. The top of the flow is pliable, like plastic wrap. As it cools it becomes cumbrous and is pulled, squeezed, rippled, and tugged by the faster moving, hotter lava underneath.

At left: Lava flowing over a cliff starts to “back up” and cause ripple patterns – like brownie batter in a tilted pan. Depending on the temperature, composition, and speed, the lava’s supple surface can be ropey, wrinkled, or crumpled, forming beautiful patterns when hardened.

Volcano Researcher Stephen O’Meara has been scientifically studying active volcanoes for 30 years. In 1993, Stephen and Donna O’Meara founded Volcano Watch International with the goal of better understanding how Earth’s active volcanoes work and helping to save lives. All images in this post copyright Steve & Donna O’Meara /Volcano Watch International. Used with permission.

In general, the lower 48 in the United States has seen very mild temperatures during the 2011-2012 winter.

Besides the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, snowfall has been very limited across the country. As of today, (February 3) the areas hardest hit with cold and snow have been Alaska and a large portion of central and eastern Europe. A jet stream, which practically acts as a boundary of cold air to the north and warm air to the south, has been stagnant across the United States and Canadian border with very few dips. When the jet stream “dips”, it becomes a trough and typically brings colder and stormier weather. However, these dips in the jet stream have not been substantial or long term to provide a sustaining cold pattern like it did back in January of 2011. Will February promise colder weather? What does a mild winter mean for spring 2012?

Take a look at the snowfall depth this year compared to 2011 at the same time. On February 1, 2011, the United States had 52.2% of the country covered in snow. On February 1, 2012, the United States only had 19.2% of the country covered in snow. Huge difference in one year!

Snow depth on February 1, 2011. Image Credit: NOHRSC

Snow depth on February 1, 2012. Image Credit: NOHRSC

As mentioned before, La Nina, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Artic Oscillation (AO) have played major roles on our winter weather. We simply have not seen any sustain blocking near Alaska and Greenland that would provide the United States a shot of really decent cold air. In a La Nina pattern, the jet stream is typically further north and produces wet weather across the Pacific Northwest and drier weather in the south. The NAO has been positive for almost all of the winter, which means we are unable to establish a blocking pattern that will allow the cold air to be pushed to the south and affect the eastern coast. Temperatures across the deep south were seeing temperature readings of over 70°F (21°C). Many areas should only see highs in the upper 40′s to low 50′s in the deep south.

Take a look at the record highs that were broken on February 1, 2012. 124 places broke their record high, with 27 areas tying their record high:

Broken record high temperatures on February 1, 2012. Image Credit: NCDC

January 2012 is listed as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous United States since snow records began in 1966. December 2011 was ranked as the 11th least snowy on record. According to Dr. Jeff Masters, if February comes in four to five degrees warmer, then the winter of 2012 will have a great shot of becoming the warmest winter recorded across the United States. Masters also states that the top five warmest United States winters occurred after 1992, with the 1999-2000 winter season coming in as the warmest ever recorded.

Map of current watches and warnings on February 3, 2012. Image credit: National Weather Service

Speaking of no snow and cold, our friends in Alaska, and now Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas would disagree. As of February 3, 2012, many areas across Colorado are experiencing blizzard conditions east of Denver. Many areas are expected to receive 12-18 inches of snow that will definitely cause major transportation issues. Some areas are already getting close to seeing 24 inches of snow. This storm could be considered the first significant storm for the 2012 winter season. The northeast had a snowstorm back around Halloween of 2011, but that never matched the intensity of this storm. Also, the western coast had significant snows in Washington as well, but most of these higher accumulations occurred in mountain areas. The storm system is very dynamic, and it will not only produce heavy snow, but it will likely trigger severe thunderstorms across the deep south in Texas and Oklahoma.

Here’s the risk areas for severe weather today:

Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight chance for severe weather across central and eastern Texas, Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and western Louisiana.

Will February bring cold air?

In my opinion, I just do not see any cold air pushing south across the deep south and southeastern United States. Weather models are hinting at a possible cool down by February 10-15, 2012. The more reliable model run, the European (aka ECMWF), simply does not show a lot of cold air across the country. The GFS model run, however, shows a big eastern trough in the long range models. For now, I am leaning towards the ECMWF. The northeast will likely see cold shots with a few storm systems affecting the region in February. However, snow lovers in the deep south will likely have to wait until next winter to see snow.

Will an early start to spring-like weather trigger another active severe weather season?

This is still too far out to tell. If the NAO stays positive during the spring months, and a highly amplified jet stream digs into the south, then it will be very possible for severe weather outbreaks. However, if the NAO becomes negative, then spring could become cooler than average and decrease our chances for severe weather. Whether or not the NAO will become negative is the biggest question all winter. Only time will tell, but as of now, it looks like severe weather will likely continue in the south where the cold air tries to push into the warmer, and somewhat unstable atmosphere. I do believe there is a decent chance a huge cold snap could occur in the spring which could cause problems for plants and flowers that have, and might I say, are currently blooming. Many areas in the south are already seeing flowers, grass, and trees growing due to the mild temperatures seen in January.

Bottom line: January 2012 was the third least snowy January ever recorded since snow records began in 1966. A monster snowstorm will produce at least a foot of snow across Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas and will produce severe weather to the deep south in Texas/Oklahoma/Louisiana/Arkansas. Cold air has been dominant across Alaska all winter long with temperatures as cold as -60°F. As of now, Europe and even northern Africa are experiencing very cold temperatures as February begins. The only way this cold air will make it south and east of the Mississippi River is if the NAO becomes negative. For now, this remains to be unseen.

UPDATE FEBRUARY 2, 2012 6:30 AM CST (12:30 UTC). Although it was mostly cloudy this morning in the town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, the Punxsutawney Phil – our nation’s most famous groundhog – saw his shadow. According to folklore, when the groundhog sees his own shadow means there will be six more weeks of winter. No shadow for Phil would have meant an early spring, according to the Groundhog Day legend.

FEBRUARY 1, 2012. Groundhog Day is tomorrow, February 2. The day each year when we wait for the famous groundhog Punxsutawney Phil to emerge and provide a forecast for the late winter and early spring ahead. If he sees his shadow, we will get six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow, we will get an early spring.

How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil? I am all for a meteorological holiday that celebrates weather or weather pattern changes, but are we going overboard? Should we listen to a groundhog to predict our late winter forecast? Get nervous Punxsutawney Phil, the pressure is all on you now!

Two stars in Scorpius were Pawnee version of Groundhog Day

Everything you need to know: Groundhog Day 2012

Original Image Credit: alemaxale.

According to groundhog.org, Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow 99 out of 114 times. Back in the late 1800′s, there was a lull in activity regarding the groundhog’s schedule where there was no report. By 1900, the tradition officially began and we’ve been wondering since then if this lovely creature will see his shadow. Last year, Punxsutawney Phil did an extraordinary job “forecasting” our pattern when he did not see his shadow, thus giving us an early Spring. In fact, that’s exactly what we saw. Unfortunately, it later provided us massive flooding from the melting snow and an active severe weather season. The influence of a strong negative North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) in the winter of 2011 became positive by February, and the extreme cold and snow in December 2010 and January 2011 eventually translated into warmer temperatures by late February for a large chunk of the United States. One of the large contributing factors of Punxsutawney Phil not seeing his shadow was the approach of a large snowstorm that swallowed a large chunk of the United States and produced over a foot of snow in parts of Chicago. The storm is known as the Groundhog Day Blizzard and was listed as one of the billion dollar disasters for the United States in 2011.

According to Stormfax.com, Punxsutawney Phil has only been correct 39% of the time. Of course, long range forecasts can be difficult to predict for the human forecaster. For example, the 2011-2012 winter outlook for the United States and Europe was suppose to be a very cold winter during the months of December and January. Instead, most of these regions are experiencing warmer weather with less snowfall. Recently, very cold temperatures have been over parts of central Europe, and Alaska is once again experiencing extremely cold temperatures with lows as cold as -60°C. For most winters, everyone typically hopes Phil does not see his shadow in hopes for an early spring. However this year, many people might hope for the opposite. With very little accumulating snow across the United States and lack of cold, winter weather enthusiasts have been extremely disappointed. It might become a celebration for many if Phil does see his shadow, which statistically, has happened roughly 87% of the time.

Here’s another question to ask: Can we be more specific? For instance, we have other groundhogs in various states that predict if we’ll see an early spring. Shouldn’t we all have one universal groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil to make it official? I mean, that’s not a polite way to treat Phil! If meteorologists use various silly “numbers” that rate your weather day or use random tornado indexes, then mass confusion would occur. We need one set of rules, and Phil should be the official one. Right? Also, how do we define “long winter”? In March of 1993, spring arrived early with extremely warm temperatures. Little did we know, a monster “Storm of the Century” would create severe weather across the southern states and blizzard conditions for portions of Birmingham, Atlanta, and points northward. Does a one/two day blizzard and a return to warm weather constitute the definition of a long winter? In my opinion, it should be defined as colder than normal temperatures with a greater increase in snow chances. Of course, if the east coast is experiencing cold and snowy weather, the west coast of the United States is likely experiencing ridging and warm/dry conditions.

Warmer conditions are likely for a good bit of February. Expect another update of this image in the near future with cooler temperatures across the northern United States. Image Credit: Climate Prediction Center

I am expecting cloudy conditions on February 2, 2012 for Phil, so there’s a chance he might not see his shadow. Of course, I still wonder how they know whether or not a groundhog can actually see it’s shadow. Think about it! In a meteorological standpoint, spring begins on March 1, 2012. The weather models have been flipping all over the place, but it appears as if colder weather is on the way next week for portions of the central and eastern United States. Whether we’ll see significant snowstorms is still in question as the models have been flipping and flopping back and forth with various solutions. As of now, I am thinking colder air between February 5-15th, and perhaps warmer weather towards the end of the month.

Bottom line: Punxsutawney Phil has had a 39% accuracy rate regarding his early spring/late winter forecasts. Phil has seen his shadow nearly 87% of the time, so the odds are for six more weeks of winter. However, cloudy and possibly wet conditions could occur on this day, which could increase the chances for Phil to not see his shadow and bring us an early spring. Weather forecasts past five to seven days are not reliable, so no one should rely on a groundhog. However, he got it right last year. Maybe he’ll ace it again this year? So On February 2: Happy Groundhog Day 2012!

Groundhog via Rick LaClaire

It is Groundhog Day 2012 and cloudy in Denver.  As it turns out, we in Denver do not have groundhogs. Neither does the vast majority of regions on this planet. We have a somewhat similar species known as prairie dogs, but they are not exactly the same. Both are rodents of the squirrel family, but groundhogs are much larger and overall they are not the same animal.

I have no idea what the sky conditions are today for the great majority of groundhogs in their native habitat hundreds of miles to the east of me. If you are a longtime resident of Denver (as I am) you know that, in all probability, winter will extend at least eight to 12 weeks into the future. I wish the groundhog (or in our case, the prairie dog) would be correct, but I prefer to rely on the historical record.

Overall, could a groundhog possibly make any difference? I am the first to admit that the reactions of Nature and wildlife species could well be an indicator of current conditions or even the near future. But if highly trained meteorologists and climatologists are not completely sure of the weather just a week in advance, does it make sense that casual observers of an environmentally sensitive but otherwise non-communicative species of rodent could accurately predict the future of six weeks or more into the future? In my opinion, on Groundhog Day as on most things, evidence is more important than belief.

Large sunspot region. The sun is now moving toward a peak in activity, predicted for 2013. Image Credit: NASA

What spawned this all was an email from someone about a completely different subject. He apparently feels that historical deviations from the “norm” of temperature may be at least in part due to variations in solar activity. However, in my opinion and as I interpret the data, there is no clear evidence that these solar variations directly affect our weather. There has been talk of a 22-year drought cycle in the U.S., which ostensibly could be related to 22-year solar magnetic reversal cycle, but such connections are notoriously hard to pin down.

And then there is the so-called Little Ice Age, not a true ice age, but an extended period during which the Northern Hemisphere was markedly cooler than normal. This seemed to correspond at least in part to a period from the mid-1600s to the early 1700s in which virtually no sunspots were observed. This period of few or no sunspots is called the Maunder Minimum. Many have suggested a relationship between the lack of visible spots on the sun and the cooler-than-normal temperatures during the Little Ice Age.

That’s all very interesting until you find that some researchers have suggested that the cooling started well before the dearth of sunspots occurred, indicating a more earthly cause. Now, a new study led by Gifford Miller of the University of Colorado at Boulder, cites strong evidence of significant volcanic activity during that period that likely initiated the global or at least northern hemispheric cooling. Evidence from this study suggests that the cooling began as early as 1275, hundreds of years before the Maunder Minimum.

Volcanoes might have triggered Little Ice Age

According to Miller’s study, any contributions by changes in solar output would be largely masked by the atmospheric cooling caused by volcanoes.

The bottom line here is that attempts to tie variations in the sun to climate changes, especially short-term changes, have not shown significant success. The Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice Age might well be completely coincidental. One essential aspect of human intelligence is the ability to see patterns and connections, but sometimes we see them when they really are not there. (For example, I see lions, tiger and wolves — no bears — in the irregular patterns on the tile in my shower!) It is entirely reasonable to expect that the sun has a profound effect on earthly weather, but apparently this effect is very subtle. Up to this point, the proposed connections do not seem very convincing.

So what does this have to do with a lowly American rodent and his shadow? Not much, except to say that real evidence is more reliable than folklore.

The evidence shows that the most famous groundhog of all, Punxsutawney Phil, and his predecessors in Pennsylvania, have had a dismal record of weather prediction. My guess is that in a bout of coincidence similar to the situation between the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum, for several years a cloudy February 2 preceded an early spring and someone got the idea about the groundhog being afraid of his shadow. While we cannot entirely rule out some possible but very tenuous connection between early February weather and changes coming in the next month or so, it certainly is not obvious.

Celebration of Groundhog Day is pretty harmless, but emphasis on small, unclear or even false associations in the questions of Earth’s climate can have far greater and perhaps deleterious effects. Blaming the sun for something it didn’t do can take emphasis off other more likely, and more mundane reasons for global climate change. We should continue to research the sun-Earth connection, but the more clear cut association between climate and human activity should be the focus of action.

And, meanwhile, although the groundhog cannot really predict the weather, it did give us a funny and memorable movie!

Groundhog Day 2012: How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?

Everything you need to know: Groundhog Day 2012

February’s birthstone is the amethyst. Amethysts contain the second most abundant mineral found in Earth’s crust – quartz. Quartz is often found lining the insides of geodes. So it’s no wonder that geodes sometimes contain amethysts, too. Like quartz, amethysts are a transparent form of silicon dioxide (SiO2). An amethyst’s color can range from a faint mauve to a rich purple. It’s not clear why they’re purple. Some scientists believe the purple color arises from the amethysts’ iron oxide content, while others attribute the color to manganese or hydrocarbons.

Amethysts are very sensitive to heat. When heated to 400 or 500 degrees Celsius, an amethyst’s color changes to a brownish-yellow or red. Under some circumstances, the stones can turn green when heated. Heat may even transform an amethyst into a naturally-rare mineral called citrine. And even without heating, the violet color of an amethyst may fade over time.

Commercial sources of amethyst are Brazil and Uruguay; while in the U.S., most amethyst is found in Arizona and North Carolina.

The amethyst has a rich history of lore and legend. It can be traced back as far as 25,000 years ago in France, where it was used as a decorative stone by prehistoric humans. It has also been found among the remains of Neolithic man.

It’s said that the signet ring worn by Cleopatra was an amethyst, engraved with the figure of Mithras, a Persian deity symbolizing the Divine Idea, Source of Light and Life. It is also said to be the stone of Saint Valentine, who wore an amethyst engraved with the figure of his assistant, Cupid. Saint Valentine’s Day is still observed in February.

The word amethyst comes from the Greek word “amethystos” meaning “not drunk,” and was believed to prevent its wearers from intoxication. The following is a story from Greco-Roman mythology, as quoted from Birthstones by Willard Heaps:

“Bacchus, the god of wine in classical mythology, was offended by Diana the huntress. Determined on revenge, he declared that the first person he met as he went through the forest would be eaten by his tigers. As it happened, the first person to cross his path was the beautiful maiden Amethyst on her way to worship at the shrine of Diana. In terror, she called upon the goddess to save her, and before his eyes, Bacchus observed the maiden changed to a pure white, sparkling image of stone. Realizing his guilt and repenting his cruelty, Bacchus poured grape wine over her, thus giving the stone the exquisite violet hue of the amethyst. The carryover to non-intoxication was quite logical, and in ancient Rome, amethyst cups were used for wine, so drinkers would have no fear of overindulgence.”

The early Egyptians believed that the amethyst possessed good powers, and placed the stones in the tombs of pharaohs. During the Middle Ages, it was used as medication, believed to dispel sleep, sharpen intellect, and protect the wearer from sorcery. It was also believed to bring victory in battle. In Arabian mythology, the amethyst was supposed to protect the wearer from bad dreams and gout.

February’s birthstone, the amethyst, was the stone of royalty, representing power. See the birthstones for the rest of the year.
January birthstone
February birthstone
March birthstone
April birthstone
May birthstone
June birthstone
July birthstone
August birthstone
September birthstone
October birthstone
November birthstone
December birthstone

Image Credits: Ra’ike and Wikimedia

Scientists announced today (January 30, 2012) that four massive tropical volcanoes – which appear to have erupted between 1275 and 1300 AD – might have set into motion a planet-wide cooling that ultimately caused the Little Ice Age. These scientists have evidence for the volcanic eruptions, which they say triggered a chain reaction, affecting sea ice and ocean currents in a way that lowered temperatures for centuries. Their results are in contrast to the work of other scientists who contend that decreased radiation from the sun is what caused the Little Ice Age. The study is being published this week in Geophysical Research Letters.

A comparison of global temperatures for the past 2,000 years. Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

The Frozen Thames, a painting by Abraham Hondius from 1677. Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

The Little Ice Age was not a true ice age, but it was a period of widespread cooling on Earth. Northern Europe felt the cooling temperatures, and advancing glaciers in mountain valleys destroyed towns. Paintings from the 1600s depict people ice-skating on the Thames River in London and canals in the Netherlands, places that were ice-free before and after the Little Ice Age. Places as far away as South America and China might also have cooled.

Although the Little Ice Age is generally agreed to have lasted into the 19th century, its beginning is less certain. Some sources suggest it began as early as the 13th century; others say it was more like the 16th century.

These scientists – at University of Colorado Boulder with co-authors at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other organizations – say their evidence favors an early start for the Little Ice Age. They suggest that an unusual, 50-year-long episode of four massive tropical volcanic eruptions triggered the Little Ice Age between 1275 and 1300 A.D. They used a computer model to show that subsequent expansion of sea ice and a related weakening of Atlantic currents caused the persistence of cold summers following the eruptions.

Gifford Miller collects vegetation samples on Baffin Island. He and other scientists analyzed patterns of dead vegetation, and ice and sediment core data, at high northern latitudes to retrieve evidence for four massive volcanoes that might have triggered the Little Ice Age. (Photo courtesy University of Colorado Boulder.)

The scientists analyzed patterns of dead vegetation, and ice and sediment core data, at high northern latitudes to retrieve evidence for the volcanoes. Lead author Gifford Miller of the University of Colorado Boulder said:

This is the first time anyone has clearly identified the specific onset of the cold times marking the start of the Little Ice Age. We also have provided an understandable climate feedback system that explains how this cold period could be sustained for a long period of time. If the climate system is hit again and again by cold conditions over a relatively short period—in this case, from volcanic eruptions—there appears to be a cumulative cooling effect.

Miller and his colleagues radiocarbon-dated roughly 150 samples of dead plant material with roots intact, collected from beneath receding margins of ice caps on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic. They found a large cluster of “kill dates” between 1275 and 1300 A.D., indicating the plants had been frozen and engulfed by ice during a relatively sudden event.

The team saw a second spike in plant kill dates at about 1450 A.D., indicating the quick onset of a second major cooling event.

The researchers also analyzed sediment cores from a glacial lake linked to the 367-square-mile Langjökull ice cap in the central highlands of Iceland that reaches nearly a mile high. The annual layers in the cores suddenly became thicker in the late 13th century, they said, and again in the 15th century as the climate cooled.

The team used the Community Climate System Model, which was developed by scientists at NCAR and the Department of Energy with colleagues at other organizations, to test the effects of volcanic cooling on Arctic sea ice extent and mass. The model, which simulated various sea ice conditions from about 1150 to 1700 A.D., showed several large, closely spaced eruptions could have cooled the Northern Hemisphere enough to trigger the expansion of Arctic sea ice.

The model showed that sustained cooling from volcanoes would have sent some of the expanding Arctic sea ice down along the eastern coast of Greenland until it eventually melted in the North Atlantic. Since sea ice contains almost no salt, when it melted the surface water became less dense, preventing it from mixing with deeper North Atlantic water. This weakened heat transport back to the Arctic and created a self-sustaining feedback on the sea ice long after the effects of the volcanic aerosols subsided, according to the simulations.

This figure summarizes sunspot number observations. During the long Maunder Minimum, almost no sunspots were observed. Some contend that the absence of sunspots correlated to a decrease in solar radiation, which caused the Little Ice Age. Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Meanwhile, there is still the idea of decreased radiation from the sun, as evidenced by, for example, a decline in visible spots on the sun during the period of the Little Ice Age. The researchers addressed that question by setting solar radiation at a constant level in their climate models. They said the simulations indicated that the Little Ice Age likely would have occurred without decreased summer solar radiation at the time.

Bottom line: On January 30, 2012, scientists at University of Colorado Boulder with co-authors at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and other organizations announced evidence suggesting that volcanoes caused the Little Ice Age. They used radiocarbon-dating of samples of dead plant material, collected from high northern latitudes, in combination with a computer model, to show that four massive volcanoes could have triggered the widespread cooling. Their results are in contrast to the work of other scientists who suggest that decreased radiation from the sun caused the Little Ice Age. The study is being published this week in Geophysical Research Letters.

Via UCAR