Image Credit: andy_bernay-roman
Kathleen Tierney: We cannot predict earthquakes in the sense of being able to tell exactly where, exactly when and how big.
That’s Kathleen Tierney of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado. She said that because no one can make predictions about earthquakes far in advance, people in high-risk areas always need to be prepared.
Kathleen Tierney: They can develop household disaster plans where the household plans together what to do if an earthquake were to strike.
Some communities have warning systems. Earthquake-prone Japan developed a national alert system in 2007, which tries to alert the public the moment scientists detect a large tremor. The Japanese system doesn’t just rely on seismology. It also relies on a well-informed population. In other parts of the world, where populations may be more demographically diverse, getting out earthquake-preparedness information can be challenging.
Kathleen Tierney: In terms of different language groups in our society, different ethnic groups, groups that use different types of media.
For now, Tierney advised, people in vulnerable areas should stay vigilant, especially when it’s been a while since the last quake.
Join EarthSky in celebrating The International Year of Planet Earth. Thanks to the National Science Foundation and US Geological Survey.
Our thanks to:
Kathleen Tierney
University of Colorado
Boulder, CO
You can find examples of correct earthquake predictions in most search engines under: “Robert Rhodes earthquake” and “Ozonator earthquake”.
Current quake predictions and these 2 correct don’t count for my peers on this blog:
From the good people with bad maps at the USGS (earthquake.usgs.gov):
Magnitude Richters Date-time Depth Region
3.6 Â 2009/03/30 07:06:10Â 44.7Â Â OLYMPIC PENINSULA, WASHINGTON
4.8 Â 2009/04/01 02:41:28Â 99.7Â Â SOUTHERN PERU.
“A. Our Ozonator’s preamble for Survival … 1. The Spring Overturn may increase erupting energy of the harmonics of the 5 week Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (3/29 – 4/4/09). Expect significant quaking in the US Midwest with a missing link or two in Evil Inhofe, Oklahoma. Expect significant quaking in Northern Europe to Northern Asia. Expect significant tsunami, typhoon, and/or quaking from Eastern African to Western Australia. Naturally like 2/8 – 14/09, the 2nd time predicting no x-ray type flares with the Ozonator Star Model produced a 2nd x-ray type flare to help stir the magma.
…
B. The specifics of the Giulaino – Gansu Model (3/29 – 4/4/09) of extreme earthquake warnings with included statistics, analysis indicates for regions (magnitude in Richters) are:
1. Montserrat (4+) – Virgin Islands (5+) – Jamaica (5+) – Alabama (3+) – Evil Inhofe, Oklahoma (4+) – Iowa (2+) – Yellowstone (5+) – Olympia Peninsula (4+) – Vancouver (4+);
2. Los Angeles (4+) – Mexico (5+) – South East Pacific Rise (5+) – Easter Island (6+) – London (3+) – Belgium (4+) – Austria (4+) – Greece (5+) – Isle of Me (Rhodes) (6+) – New Zealand (6+) -Balleny Island (7+);
3. M Geaux Blue, Michigan (2+) – New York (4+) – Maine (5+) – Greenland (4+) – Iceland (5+) – Scotland (4+);
4. Columbia (6+) – Peru (5+) – Chile (5+); and
5. Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (3/29 – 4/4/09):
a. Aleutians (7+) – Vladivostok (5+) – Northeast China (5+) – Mongolia (6+),
b. Australia (4+) – Indonesia (7+) – South China (6+) – Pakistan (5+) – Afghanistan (5+) – Azerbaijan (6+) – Crimea (5+) – Romania (3+) – Slovakia (4+) – France (4+),
c. Gulf of Aden (6+) – Saudi Arabia (4+) – Syria (4+), and
d. Malawi (4+) – Tanzania (5+) – Chad (3+) – Algeria (6+).
…
C. GBRWE official experimental quake and other models, updated as of 3/14/09 … a correct in this earthquake modeling is anything within 0.5 Richters below given prediction and anything above the prediction for the region. … 2. 2-week model – unless stated otherwise, ALL predictions get at least 2-weeks to have ~70% of occurring with the last 30% trailing off into infinity; … 5. 5-week model: … DEQ-ORM-Esso-Kill-the-Planet Mode …
D. With included statistics, warnings for the Pickerell Model (3/29 – 4/4/09) of qualitative volcanic activity:
1. Tanzania – Democratic Republic of Congo – Cape Verde – Azores – Iceland;
2. Ascension Island – Montserrat – Jamaica – Mexico – Hawaii;
3. South Sandwich Island – Brazil – Ecuador – Galapagos;
4. Tonga – Fiji – New Caledonia – Australia – Indonesia;
5. Philippines – Japan – Kamchatka; and
6. Cern – Italy – Sicily – Greece – Turkeyâ€
(“GBRWE 3/29 – 4/4/09’s Extreme Planetary Warnings for Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Solar/Terrestrial Flares from Human Activitiesâ€; Robert Rhodes, Supplemental; GBRWE 3/29 – 4/4/09, 3/28/09).
For real-time peer review after posting my predictions:
Making at least 1 of 43 (2.3%) correct for using global warming to to rock your world, the following is just within the standard 0.5 minimum Richter intensity for the Ozonator model for the predicted “Pakistan (5+)†which is 4.5 Richters and greater over a 2-week period.
From the good people with bad maps at the USGS (earthquake.usgs.gov):
Magnitude Richters Date-time Depth Region
 4.5  2009/04/03 17:45:20 43.1  PAKISTAN.
The odds of correctly predicting 1 significant quake for a region with a minimal intensity in Richters is 1/43 times 1/43 or 0.05%. At the very least, the odds of correctly predicting 1 significant quake for a region is 1/43 or 2.3%. At the very least, the odds of correctly predicting 1 significant quake for the intensity in Richters is 1/43 or 2.3%.
For real peer review after posting my predictions:
Making at least 2 of 43 (4.7%) correct for using global warming to to rock your world, the following is just within the standard 0.5 minimum Richter intensity for the Ozonator model for the predicted “Virgin Islands (5+)†which is 4.5 Richters and greater over a 2-week period.
“Seismologists say a light earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 4.5 has rattled the U.S. Caribbean territories and the British Virgin Islands. … about 66 miles northwest from Anegada in the British Virgin Islands†(“Earthquake Shakes Caribbean Islandsâ€; Associated Press; foxnews.com, 4/5/09).
Since it’s rotten Fox News, I had to double check with USGS to confirm the 4.5 – and they did.
My condolences to the good people of Italy and Gioacchino Giuliani.
For real peer review after posting my predictions and the USGS Ross Stein types:
Making at least 3 of 43 (~7%) correct for using global warming to to rock your world, the following is just within the standard 0.5 minimum Richter intensity for the Ozonator model for the predicted “ Peru (5+)†which is 4.5 Richters and greater over a 2-week period.
From the good people with bad maps at the USGS (earthquake.usgs.gov):
Magnitude Richters Date-time Depth Region
MAPÂ 4.6 Â 2009/04/08 03:06:22Â 150.9Â Â NORTHERN PERU.
At the very least, Italian authorities should have been looking for volcanism instead of acting like Evil Rush Limbaugh and Hurricane Katrina – “D. With included statistics, warnings for the Pickerell Model (3/29 – 4/4/09) of qualitative volcanic activity: … 6. Cern – Italy – Sicily – Greece – Turkeyâ€. Technically and for emergency personnel, the GBRWE “C†official 6-week model Italy covers the 6.3 Richter quake hitting the good people of Italy with the predicted 4+ under GBRWE 3/22 – 28/09 that was energized by a moving North America and China. It was not covered under the 6+ predicted for Italy under GBRWE 1/4 – 10/09. “Earthquakes like the one that killed more than 200 people in Italy this week are still impossible to predict, and a local scientist’s claims to have done so should be treated with caution, geophysicists say. Gioacchino Giuliani is at the center of a debate about the limits of seismology after Italian officials shrugged off his warnings last month that a devastating earthquake … “It’s a very humbling field to be in … We cannot predict earthquakes,” said Ross Stein, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, California. “To predict an earthquake, whatever it is that we’re using would have to be a reliable indicator … And no one has gotten close to that.” … Giuliani’s forecast was far from perfect. He believed the quake would have struck the town of Sulmona, which is more than 50 km (30 miles) south of L’Aquila. He also got the date wrong, predicting the quake would strike several days earlier. … … Stern said if Giuliani wanted to be taken seriously by the scientific community, he should publish his work and put it up to review. “This physicist from Italy has every right to pursue something, as do the cockroach people. But we all have to subject our work to the same standards of review,” Stern said†(“Scientists dismiss earthquake predictionâ€; Reuters; news.yahoo.com, 4/7/09).
For real peer review after posting my predictions:
Making at least 4 of 43 (~9.3%) correct for using global warming to to rock your world, the following is just within the standard 0.5 minimum Richter intensity for the Ozonator model for the predicted
“Chile (5+)†which is 4.5 Richters and greater over a 2-week period.
From the good people with bad maps at the USGS (earthquake.usgs.gov):
Magnitude Richters Date-time Depth Region
 4.6  2009/04/08 10:22:54  91.4  VALPARAISO, CHILE.
For real peer review after posting my predictions:
Making at least 6 correct (~22.2%) volcano predictions of 27 total for using global warming to belch mo’ fire on our world. On 4/2/09, volcano predictions were posted for 27 regions of the world. On 4/8/09, the Global Volcanism Program, Department of Mineral Sciences, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution reported volcanic activity in 12 regions under 3/29 – 4/4/09.
n=27
“1. Tanzania – Democratic Republic of Congo – Cape Verde – Azores – Iceland;
2. Ascension Island – Montserrat – Jamaica – Mexico – Hawaii;
3. South Sandwich Island – Brazil – Ecuador – Galapagos;
4. Tonga – Fiji – New Caledonia – Australia – Indonesia;
5. Philippines – Japan – Kamchatka; and
6. Cern – Italy – Sicily – Greece – Turkeyâ€.
Reporting Period 3/29 – 4/4/09,volcanic activity was reported by the Global Volcanism Program, Department of Mineral Sciences, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution( volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs):
1. KRAKATAU Indonesia
2. KILAUEA Hawaii
3. POPOCATEPETL México
4. a. KARYMSKY Eastern Kamchatka
b. KORYAKSKY Eastern Kamchatka
c. SHIVELUCH Central Kamchatka
5. SOUFRIERE HILLS Montserrat
6. TUNGURAHUA Ecuador
7. RABAUL New Britain
8. EBEKO Paramushir Island, Kuril Islands
9. REDOUBT Southwestern Alaska
10. PACAYA Guatemala
11. GALERAS Colombia
12. LLAIMA Central Chile.
With condolences to the quake in India injuring a few and cracking many homes
For real peer review after posting my predictions:
Making at least 5 of 43 (~11.6%) correct for using global warming to to rock your world, the following is just within the standard 0.5 minimum Richter intensity for the Ozonator model for the predicted “Afghanistan (5+)†which is 4.5 Richters and greater over a 5-week period under the Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (3/29 – 4/4/09) that is seeing a slow buildup with “Pakistan (5+) – Afghanistan (5+)â€.
From the good people with bad maps at the USGS (earthquake.usgs.gov):
Magnitude Richters Date-time Depth Region
4.8 Â 2009/04/09 16:34:29Â 180.9Â Â HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN.
With condolences to our friends and neighbors devastated by predicted global warming tornadoes –
For real peer review after posting my predictions:
Making at least 6 of 43 (~14%) correct for using global warming to to rock your world, the following 3 are within the standard 0.5 minimum Richter intensity for the Ozonator model for the predicted “Mexico (5+)†which is 4.5 Richters and greater over a 5-week period under 3/29 – 4/4/09.
From the good people with bad maps at the USGS (earthquake.usgs.gov):
Magnitude Richters Date-time Depth Region
 4.7  2009/04/07 21:49:33 35.0  OAXACA, MEXICO
 4.6  2009/04/08 01:20:38 131.1  CHIAPAS, MEXICO
 4.9  2009/ 04/11 09:22:12 29.9  GUERRERO, MEXICO.
Given the previous quote of “it’s thousands of feet in the air … rocks …under water somehow became mountains … It’s just happened, and that’s how the climate operatesâ€, expect the next Republican White House administration to fund the fertilizer of Roy “d-rage†Spencer, Marc “show me the corporate money†Morano, Ann “adam’s apple†Coulter, and LABI Limbaugh to replace NASA’s rocket program with a conservative space elevator grown from 3 magical beans.
For real peer review after posting my predictions:
Making at least 7 correct (~25.9%) volcano predictions of 27 total for using global warming to belch mo’ fire on our world. On 4/2/09, volcano predictions were posted for 27 regions of the world in this blog and 6 were previously identified as correct. “Ecuador officials say a volcano is erupting in the Galapagos Islands and could harm unique wildlife. The Galapagos National Park says La Cumbre volcano began spewing lava, gas and smoke on uninhabited Fernandina Island on Saturday after four years of inactivity. … The Galapagos are home to unique animal and plant species that became the basis for Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution†(“Galapagos volcano erupts, could threaten wildlifeâ€; AP; news.yahoo.com, 4/11/09). To my knowledge, Charles Darwin did not predict volcanism on the Galapagos chain. Yet he managed to monitor more volcanoes than LABI Limbaugh rears children and J(sw)indal without volcanoes. My only other contact with Mr. Darwin was to reshelve his great book as a student employee at what was to become the University of Michigan’s Shapiro Science Library. The Introduction alone keeps me going.
First some clerical loose ends and then, just what a holy grail looks like, if you are better than people, better than gymnasts, better than cheerleaders, better than dittoheads – geologists. My condolences to Giampaolo Guiliani. It is punishment enough to be correct in any part of the 6.3 Italian killer quake prediction. All of my global warming predictions put together have directly or indirectly been the tombstones for 0.75 – 2 million people.
The Galapagos volcano was with the the standard 2-week model inherent in all my global warming predictions. In non-supplemental GBRWEs, volcanoes are totaled for the 1st week only
from volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs to reduce my overlap headaches.
In this blog for a particular week, as I have done for many other weeks, I posted tectonic predictions for a particular region, intensity, and time period based on tracking down disasters from global warming. Weekly predictions provide a verifiable framework to reduce uncertainty in living with humans who enjoy dumping waste on their neighbors and future generations. To date, in this blog, readers have been given 13 holy grails – I have made at least 6 of 43 (~14%) correct earthquake predictions and at least 7 of 27 (~25.9%) correct volcano predictions. Since such predictions are impossible for geologists, for public comparison, professional baseball legend Babe Ruth’s career had a home run total of 714 from 8399 career at bats or an 8.5% chance of hitting a home run for every visit at the plate (infoplease.com). More ecological theory than geology, “King Arthur: Go and tell your master that we have been charged by God with a sacred quest. If he will give us food and shelter for the night, he can join us in our quest for the Holy Grail. French Soldier: Well, I’ll ask him, but I don’t think he will be very keen. Uh, he’s already got one, you see. King Arthur: What? Sir Galahad: He said they’ve already got one! King Arthur: Are you sure he’s got one? French Soldier: Oh yes, it’s very nice!†(Monty Python and the Holy Grail, 1975; IMDb, Memorable quotes; imdb.com/title/tt0071853/quotes).
It appears that Susan Hough is not a peer of earthsky.org radio shows and that the New York Times is trying to compete with newsbusters.org. She will no doubt be buying time and selling books on the idiot George Noory’s Coasttocoastam.com radio show. “IN the aftermath of the earthquake at L’Aquila, Italy, on Monday that killed nearly 300 people, splashy headlines suggested that these victims didn’t have to die. … With 20-20 hindsight the answer certainly appears to be yes. The real answer is no. Scientists have been chasing earthquake prediction — the holy grail of earthquake science — for decades. … prediction per se, which involves specifying usefully narrow windows in time, location and magnitude, has eluded us. … The game goes like this: … X is typically what we call a “noisy signal†… scientists have yet to be able to accurately predict coming earthquakes. … until and unless the track record of a method is shown to be statistically significant, making public predictions is irresponsible. … We can stop worrying about predicting the unpredictable, and start doing more to prepare for the inevitable†(“Confusing Patterns With Coincidencesâ€; By SUSAN HOUGH, geophysicist with the United States Geological Survey; nytimes.com, 4/110/09). “Susan Hough, scientist in charge at the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena, who is finishing a book on earthquake prediction, said … “If you want predictions, they’re out there all the time,†Hough said. “It amazes me all the time that earthquakes happen that aren’t predicted because scientists and amateurs, everybody’s playing the gameâ€â€ (“Italy quake prediction makes waves in California seismology circlesâ€; Jia-Rui Chong; latimesblogs.latimes.com, 4/6/09). Ms. Hough seems to have forgotten or not included in the book, volcano monitoring, as did LABI Limbaugh and Bobby J(sw)indal. “Early warning offers ‘holy grail of volcanology’ – the more the moisture, the bigger the eruption. … Scientists normally monitor active volcanoes by measuring how the ground around them deforms and how the gases they release change over time†(“When Water Bubbles Signal a Volcanic Big Bangâ€; © Guardian News & Media 2008; buzzle.com, Published: 9/6/2006).
You “gotsta” walk with holy grails before you run or why drilling a quake hole to China in the “Earthquake Capital of the World” aka Parkfield, California and their “drill, baby, drill†nursery allowed ExxonMobil to give us the shaft or geology doesn’t even give you a damp sponge while planetary ecology gives you a vessel with the pestle, a chalice from the palace, and a flagon with the dragon. For 3/29 – 4/4/09, not predicted in this blog but publicly predicted in the GBRWE, there were 5 out of 6 correct quantitative quake predictions for the entire world as ~99% reported by the USGS during the week in question. This part of the scientific method refutes Ms. Susan Hough’s rhetorical question of how high is up aka “earthquakes happen that aren’t predicted … playing the gameâ€. WPI, American, and EAA were based on empirical groupings from tracking global warming disasters (WPI – Western Pacific-Indian Oceans, Indonesia to east of Hawaii including the Aleutian Islands of Alaska, slightly different for hurricanes and EAA – Europe, Africa, and the portion of Asia not covered in WPI’s quakes). “GBRWE 4/5 – 11/09 … by Robert Rhodes, The “Ozonator†… B2. Weeks’ Reporting Period of GBRWE 3/29 – 4/4/09. … Also covering the entire world for the reporting week of GBRWE 3/29 – 4/4/09, the 407th Noorabad-Colima Model predicted earthquake prediction totals (average intensities) as: WPI 96 correct (3.9 correct), Americas 129 correct (3.2 correct), and EAA 7 correct (4.0 incorrect) (earthquake.usgs.gov and those different in “Storms are US†– 3/29 – 4/4/09) and a week earlier - “GBRWE 3/29 – 4/4/09 … by Robert Rhodes, The “Ozonator†… B1. Weeks’ Reporting Period of GBRWE 3/29 – 4/4/09. … Also covering the entire world for the reporting week of GBRWE 3/29 – 4/4/09, the 407th Noorabad-Colima Model predicted earthquake prediction totals (average intensities) as: WPI… 80 – 200 (3.5 – 4.3), Americas 100 – 300 (3.0 – 3.4), and EAA… 4 – 64 (4.3 – 5.3) (earthquake.usgs.gov and those different in “Storms are US†– 3/29 – 4/4/09). …)â€. “Storms are US†usually included the few quakes also significant enough to reported for various regions by countries and other geopolitical entities.
With ~52 weeks in a year, we are now on the weekly, 409th Noorabad-Colima Model. All the corporate Houghs of the world can play in their coloring or pop-up book until the USGS stops collecting data at Update time = Sun Apr 19 0:00:01 UTC 2009 (“Latest Earthquakes in the World – Past 7 days…Latest Earthquakes Magnitude 2.5 or Greater in the United States and Adjacent Areas and Magnitude 4.5 or Greater in the Rest of the World – Last 7 daysâ€; earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php). And then it is plug and chug – “GBRWE 4/12 – 18/09 … by Robert Rhodes, The “Ozonator†… B1. Weeks’ Reporting Period of GBRWE 4/12 – 18/09. … Also covering the entire world for the reporting week of GBRWE 4/12 – 18/09, the 409th Noorabad-Colima Model predicted earthquake prediction totals (average intensities) as: WPI… 60 – 120 (3.6 – 4.3), Americas 120 – 300 (3.1 – 3.4), and EAA… 12 – 60 (4.5 – 5.5) (earthquake.usgs.gov and those different in “Storms are US†– 4/12 – 18/09).“ An example of “conservative†science during the Dark Ages (new Dark Ages – power generation by Entergy), “Hawkins: I’ve got it! I’ve got it. The pellet with the poison’s in the vessel with the pestle, the chalice from the palace has the brew that is true, right? Witch: Right. But there’s been a change. They broke the chalice from the palace. … Hawkins: Did you put the pellet with the poison in the vessel with the pestle? Witch: No! The pellet with the poison’s in the flagon with the dragon, the vessel with the pestle has the brew that is true!†(from the movie The Court Jesterâ€, 1956, starring Danny Kaye; dagsrule.com/pestle.html).
For real peer review after posting my predictions: another correct volcano prediction and 2 honorable mentions winning the holy dixie cups instead of holy grails.
4/15/09—-Earth&Sky
Reporting Period 3/29 – 4/4/09, 3rd reporting—-Volcanoes were reported (volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs):
MIYAKE-JIMA Izu Islands, Japan.
Making at least 8 correct (~29.6%) volcano predictions of 27 total for using global warming to belch mo’ fire on our world. On 4/2/09, volcano predictions were posted for 27 regions of the world. On 4/15/09, the Global Volcanism Program, Department of Mineral Sciences, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution reported volcanic activity in 1 regions under 3/29 – 4/4/09.
Honorable mention for a holy dixie cup instead of a grail as no one was injured. At the very least, another significant quake warning from GBRWE empirically has given a willing population a few extra seconds and comparatively little effort to practice or actually save themselves that is far from “making public predictions is irresponsible†(Susan Hough).
For the predicted “Gulf of Aden (6+)†in the 3rd of 5 weeks under the Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (3/29 – 4/4/09) –
From the good people with bad maps at the USGS (earthquake.usgs.gov):
Magnitude Richters Date-time Depth Region
5.7  2009/04/15 10:20:05 10.0  OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION (“500 km (310 miles) E of Qalansiyah, Socotra Island, Yemen 675 km (420 miles) SE of Salalah, Omanâ€). The Owen Fracture Zone … runs along the eastern boundary of the Arabian Plate … extends from the Carlsberg Ridge in the south, meets the Sheba Rift segment of the Aden Ridge … this area has been called the Aden-Owen-Carlsberg Triple Junction†(“Owen Fracture Zoneâ€; en.wikipedia.org, 4/15/09). “The Gulf of Aden … is located in the Arabian Sea between Yemen on the south coast of the Arabian Peninsula and Somalia in the Horn of Africa†(“Gulf of Adenâ€; en.wikipedia.org, 4/15/09).
In the 2nd and 3rd weeks of 5 weeks under the Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (3/29 – 4/4/09) where I predicted a 7+ for Indonesia, “A strong earthquake on Indonesia’s central Sulawesi Island sent residents fleeing from their homes Sunday, witnesses said. … magnitude 5.2 … followed a 5.3-magnitude quake earlier Sunday … Another earthquake struck North Sulawesi Friday… at magnitude 5.2†(“Strong quake shakes Indonesian islandâ€; upi.com, 4/12/09).
GBRWE quake predictions are comparable in excitement generation to free weekly weather forecasts from a distance and guaranteed to put women to sleep in person. People en mass seem to use GBRWE to add a mental note to help their escape plans. Geologists’ nonscientific view of earthquake predictions appears to be related to the following example. “Double increase of the insurances “Home property†note the insurers in the Bulgarian town of Haskovo these days. … The people are scared about their household belongings … directly ask damages from earthquake. … because of a prediction of the astrologist Emil Leshtanski in the end of last year that on 19 April Haskovo and its surroundings will be hit by a dreadful earthquake which will cause destruction and victims†(“Panic in Haskovo because of an earthquake predictionâ€; international.ibox.bg, 4/15/09).
Meanwhile amidst global warming earthquakes and volcanoes, there is a deadly game being played on our backs and future generations. While I predicted a Galapagos volcano in spite of Louisiana Governor J(sw)indal volcano monitoring negligence and LABI Limbaugh ghost writers, “Just in time for the bicentennial observance of Charles Darwin’s birth, a new survey of Louisiana residents shows 40 percent of the respondents believe evolution is not well-supported by evidence or generally accepted within the scientific community. … The level of belief that evolution is not supported by scientific evidence is startling. … it has been widely accepted as a cornerstone of scientific thought. … evolution is widely controversial within the scientific community is simply not true. … part of the propaganda often advanced by creationists who favor teaching the biblical story of the Earth’s creation in public schools under a new name, intelligent design. … Such indifference to basic principles of science doesn’t position Louisiana very well to embrace the knowledge-based economy it needs to advance its future. … support for teaching intelligent design in public schools is Gov. Bobby Jindal. … Jindal’s wife, Supriya, has launched a private foundation to promote math and science education in Louisiana’s classrooms†(“Our Views: La. snubs Darwinâ€; Advocate Opinion page staff; 2theadvocate.com, 4/14/09). “The growing number of global warming skeptics around the world scored a major victory during the second International Conference on Climate Change, which confronted the issue, “Global warming: Was it every really a crisis?†… an audience of 700 attendees—the largest-ever gathering of global warming skeptics—was a resounding “No.†… on March 10 in New York City … “this was the best conference they had ever attended. … the perfect conference†(“Climate Change Conference Rebuts Alarmismâ€; Dan Miller – executive vice president and publisher for The Heartland Institute, Environment & Climate News, The Heartland Institute Publication date: 05/01/2009; heartland.org, found posted on 4/14/09). (Ooops, “ExxonMobil contributed a total of $560,000 to the Heartland Institute between 1998 and 2005â€; en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heartland_Institute, 12/19/08).
A correction – “… Susan Hough … buying time and selling books on the idiot George Norry’s Coasttocoast.com radio show†is now beta.coasttocoastam.com. The updated website features more ads for get rich quick schemes, miracle cures, and other stuff rejected by rushlimbaugh.com.
Readers can judge – “making public predictions is irresponsible†(Susan Hough).
With condolences to the good people of Afghanistan, this puts even more pressure on a major, shallow quake(s) for China within the next few days. “At least 20 people were killed in an earthquake that hit the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar … Hundreds of buildings in the earthquake zone were also damaged or destroyed. … epicenter of the 5.5-magnitude quake was located 85 km (53 miles) southeast of the capital, Kabul and 140 km (87 miles) west of the Pakistani city of Peshawar. … the affected area was hit by a 5.1-magnitude aftershock. A 5.4-magnitude tremor was also registered overnight near Pakistan’s capital of Islamabad†(“At least 20 killed in east Afghanistan earthquakeâ€; en.rian.ru, 4/17/09). Because there were no reports of people fleeing, I have no sense of if anyone in Afghanistan benefitted from my prediction in comparison to those poor souls in Italy who were asked to ignore any quake warnings from Giampaolo Guiliani. Already counted in this blog as a correct prediction but with <6 km depths acting as Hiroshima atomic bombs versus 180 km depth getting a wide attention if felt. From the good people with bad maps at the USGS (earthquake.usgs.gov):
Magnitude Richters Date-time Depth Region
MAP Â 5.1 Â 2009/04/16 23:42:52Â 3.2Â Â HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
MAP Â 5.5 Â 2009/04/16 21:27:51Â 5.7Â Â HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN.
Earlier, “Apr 9, 04:04 PM # Ozonator says: … 4.5 Richters and greater over a 5-week period under the Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (3/29 – 4/4/09) that is seeing a slow buildup with “Pakistan (5+) – Afghanistan (5+)â€. … 4.8 … HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN.â€
Readers can judge if live people are better than ignorant and increased chances of deadness – “making public predictions is irresponsible†(Susan Hough).
Close enough and making 7 (16.3%) correct of 43 under the killing “Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (3/29 – 4/4/09) … Saudi Arabia (4+) – Syria (4+)â€. In the Middle East, not even earthquakes are shared but they appear to be getting better. About 30 miles from Syria, only Syria did not claim status (poor media consulting) as recipient of our global warming quake.
With condolences to Lebanon, Israel, and Syria – “An earthquake measuring 4.3 on the Richter Scale struck southern Lebanon Friday afternoon, causing fear and panic among the residents … was also detected in northern Israel. Rashid Jumaa of Lebanon’s Geophysical Institute, told the German News Agency dpa that the quake was felt in areas east of the southern port city of Tyre and the village of Srifa. “We felt the earth moving under our feet and we all rushed outside the house into the street,†said a resident of Tyre. … Jumaa said that no one can predict a larger earthquake, but stressed that the geophysicists were monitoring the situation†(“Earthquake panics Lebanon, but no reported injuriesâ€; DPA; khaleejtimes.com, 4/17/09).
“A minor earthquake was recorded in northern Israel on Friday. No injuries or damages were reported. … measured 4.0 on the Richter scale, originated in the Mediterranean Sea, just west of the Lebanese city of Sidon … Lebanese media reported that the earthquake was felt in the south of the country … to the southern outskirts of Beirut. Eti Levi, a resident of Kiryat Shmona … “I spoke with friends who also told me things were falling off their walls” (“Earthquake jolts northern Israel; no one injuredâ€; By Jack Khoury , Eli Ashkenazi, and Haaretz Service; haaretz.com, 4/17/09).
Ha – since nobody got hurt, I have a rotten business model, and the good people of Vladivostok can laugh with me, at me, or burn me in effigy.
Making 8 (18.6%) correct of 43 under the killing “Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (3/29 – 4/4/09): … Vladivostok (5+) – Northeast China (5+)†with 4.5 Richters being the minimal intensity. From the good people with bad maps at the USGS (earthquake.usgs.gov):
Magnitude Richters Date-time Depth Region
4.9 Â 2009/04/18 03:56:30Â 549.5Â Â CHINA-RUSSIA-NORTH KOREA BORDER
REGION (80 km (50 miles) E of Yanji, Jilin, China … 120 km (75 miles) WSW of Vladivostok, Russia).
Unbeknownst to geologists, they will never begin to know the most horrible thing about predicting every quake fit to report in the world for this particular week. Based on global warming, the Noorabad-Colima Model correctly predicted 5 of 6 major worldwide quantities of intensities and numbers without taking into account the destroyed lives in the Afghanistan quake.
Covering the entire world for the reporting week of GBRWE 4/12 –
18/09, the 409th Noorabad-Colima Model predicted earthquake prediction totals (average intensities) as: WPI 72 correct (4.4 incorrect), Americas 177 correct (3.2 correct), and EAA 16 correct (4.6 correct) (earthquake.usgs.gov and those different in “Storms are US†– 4/12 – 18/09).
“Apr 12, 11:35 PM # Ozonator says: … With ~52 weeks in a year, we are now on the weekly, 409th Noorabad-Colima Model. … And then it is plug and chug – “GBRWE 4/12 – 18/09 … by Robert Rhodes, The “Ozonator†… B1. Weeks’ Reporting Period of GBRWE 4/12 – 18/09. … Also covering the entire world for the reporting week of GBRWE 4/12 – 18/09, the 409th Noorabad-Colima Model predicted earthquake prediction totals (average intensities) as: WPI… 60 – 120 (3.6 – 4.3), Americas 120 – 300 (3.1 – 3.4), and EAA… 12 – 60 (4.5 – 5.5) (earthquake.usgs.gov and those different in “Storms are US†– 4/12 – 18/09).“ “
With condolences to China and Kyrgyzstan
Honorable mention, the killing and other active elements in the #22. Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (3/29 – 4/4/09) posted in this blog should have provided some warning as Tajikistan is between Afghanistan and Mongolia predictions. “More than 15,000 people have been affected by an earthquake, measuring 5.5 on the Richter scale, in northwest China, the Sina news … hit China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region midday Sunday. As a result, 3,200 houses were destroyed and damage is estimated at around $8 million … No one … died†(“Over 15,000 affected by earthquake in northwest Chinaâ€; en.rian.ru, 4/20/09). “Chinese seismological authorities say a moderate earthquake registering a magnitude of 5.5 Sunday struck China’s far western Xinjiang region. No injuries … quake’s epicenter was … near the border with Kyrgyzstan. … The U.S. Geological Survey recorded a magnitude 5.2 quake in Kyrgyzstan†(“Moderate Earthquake Rattles Northwest China; No Injuries Reportedâ€; insurancejournal.com, 4/20/09). “Apr 2, 10:00 PM # Ozonator says:“A. Our Ozonator’s preamble for Survival … 1. The Spring Overturn may increase erupting energy of the harmonics of the 5 week Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (3/29 – 4/4/09). … Expect significant quaking in Northern Europe to Northern Asia. … B. … 5. Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (3/29 – 4/4/09): a. … Vladivostok (5+) – Northeast China (5+) – Mongolia (6+),
b. … South China (6+) – Pakistan (5+) – Afghanistan (5+)“.
Thus, a significant % of correct earthquake predictions and a far greater % of functionally useful earthquake predictions are not gender based, geologically based, nor baseless using a $10 Casio calculator. The predictions are ecologically based and driven by all aspects of global warming, toxicity to harmonics, which modeling of both theoretical and empirical indicates millions of years of previous biological activity is now condensed into days, weeks, and moths of activity by extremist Republicans and Christians (aka 2-legged locusts).
Not posted in this blog, the preparations for the last #21. Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (2/8 – 14/09) should have helped. “B. The specifics of the Giulaino – Gansu Model (2/8 – 14/09) of extreme earthquake warnings … for regions (magnitude in Richters) are: … 2. Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (2/8 – 14/09): Kashmir (6+) – Pakistan (7+) – Western China (6+) – Tajikistan (5+) – Kyrgyzstan (7+)†(“GBRWE 2/8 – 14/09’s Extreme Planetary Warnings for Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Solar/Terrestrial Flares from Human Activitiesâ€; Robert Rhodes, Supplemental; GBRWE 2/8 – 14/09, 2/7/09).
Predicting hurricane ecosystems is far easier than earthquake ecosystems only because quakes are better reported. Tasty words of hollow calorie ignorance are the main products of extremist Republicans and Christians of which at least the Canadian is one of their princesses. “As seismologists will tell you, no one can accurately forecast when and where quakes will occur, or precisely how large they will be. There’s no known precursor, or early warning sign, that consistently and reliably indicates that a quake is about to hit†(“O.C. earthquake prediction proves groundlessâ€; posted by Gary Robbins, science writer-editor; sciencedude.freedomblogging.com, 4/18/09). I correctly predicted Hurricane Katrina both early (GBRWE 2/13/05), often (GBRWE), and very publicly in bayoubuzz.com (used to be found in the previous search engine). However, those that can’t – lie. “If you want to understand the intellectual basis in the environmental movement for what has been dubbed “climate porn” by the U.K.‘s Institute for Public Policy Research — the often almost hysterical portrayal of man-made global warming as an immediate, existential threat to humanity — … air pollution isn’t the same thing as global warming … Second, attributing Hurricane Katrina or any single weather event to global warming — as Al Gore did in An Inconvenient Truth — isn’t science. … saying air pollution kills thousands annually … is problematic because it suggests thousands of perfectly healthy people are suddenly dropping dead due to smog. … Commenting on linking hurricanes like Katrina to global warming in their recent paper … Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, write: “We have no plausible physical reasons for believing that Atlantic hurricane frequency or intensity will change ….” Oops†(“What Suzuki didn’t tell youâ€; By LORRIE GOLDSTEIN; Comment Columnists / Lorrie Goldstein; torontosun.com, 4/19/09).
With condolences to Romania and Mexico/US
Ugly but technically correct on the other side of the bell curve of the technically incorrect, global warming violence to Romania makes 9 (21%) correct of 43 under the 4th week of 5 in the killing “Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (3/29 – 4/4/09): … Romania (3+)â€.
Like the Middle East, the same quake violence isn’t well shared. While I predicted a 3+ while a 5.3 was reported. The Romanian centered quake was technically correct but poor like the killer Italian prediction that was influenced by overlapping energies in time and space that should have provided more than adequate warnings to emergency personnel. “Officials say that an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.3 has struck eastern Romania. … The quake caused some panic. People left their homes as furniture rocked†(“Magnitude 5.3 earthquake rattles eastern Romaniaâ€; AP; pr-inside.com, 4/25/09). “The 5.3-point earthquake was felt strongly in northern Bulgaria … Mobile phones could not be reached for several minutes†(“No Reports of Casualties, Damage from Northern Bulgaria Earthquakeâ€; novinite.com, 4/25/09). “A. Our Ozonator’s preamble for Survival … 1. … Expect significant quaking in Northern Europe to Northern Asia. Expect significant tsunami, typhoon, and/or quaking from Eastern African to Western Australia. Naturally like 2/8 – 14/09, the 2nd time predicting no x-ray type flares with the Ozonator Star Model produced a 2nd x-ray type flare to help stir the magma. … B. The specifics of the Giulaino – Gansu Model (3/29 – 4/4/09) of extreme earthquake warnings … for regions (magnitude in Richters) are: … 5. Persian – Band Aceh – Bhamo Model (3/29 – 4/4/09): … Crimea (5+) – Romania (3+) … C. GBRWE official experimental quake and other models, updated as of 3/14/09 … a correct in this earthquake modeling is anything within 0.5 Richters below given prediction and anything above the prediction for the region. … D. With included statistics, warnings for the Pickerell Model (3/29 – 4/4/09) of qualitative volcanic activity: … Greece – Turkey†(“GBRWE 3/29 – 4/4/09’s Extreme Planetary Warnings for Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Solar/Terrestrial Flares from Human Activitiesâ€; Robert Rhodes, Supplemental; GBRWE 3/29 – 4/4/09, 3/28/09).â€
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