Earthsky Interviews
Private: Is a global crisis necessary?
12-16-2006 - Human World
div(intro). Note from Earth & Sky: The “Great Transition Initiative”:http://www.gtinitiative.org/ – hosted at the “Tellus Institute”:http://www.tellus.org/ in Boston – describes itelf as “a global network for elaborating visions and strategies” for a great transition for humanity. That transition would carry us into “a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and a healthy planet.” This guest post from James Goldstein was posted to GTI’s email list of scholars and futurists from around the world earlier today. It is posted here with permission. All comments and viewpoints welcome!
In several discussions over the past months within the Great Transition Initiative, there has been an issue lurking that is rarely discussed explicitly. That is, is a global crisis necessary to motivate a great transition into a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and a healthy planet?
At GTI, we often refer to the “pushes” (e.g., ecological destruction, social unrest), and the “pulls” (e.g., healthier lifestyles, more close-knit communities) for a great transition. And yet … how can global consciousness be transformed so that humanity acts to make the transition?
In his paper (pdf), “World Lines: Pathways, Pivots, and the Global Future,”:http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/PDFFINALS/16WorldLines.pdf Paul Raskin suggests that global crises may drive a great transition, and ponders how human readiness and response determine the trajectory of change. In the broader environmental and sustainability literature there are those who see ecological disaster – most often related to climate change – as a necessary driver of societal change towards more sustainable and equitable lifestyles. Others believe that social transformation can come about through greater understanding of the potential benefits of alternative paths, and that humanity will act without (or to prevent) major crisis.
The (pdf) “GT essay”:http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/Great_Transitions.pdf suggests that human volition is at the heart of social transformation. This was amplified by Orion Kriegman in (pdf) “Dawn of the Cosmopolitan: The Hope of a Global Citizens Movement,”:http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/PDFFINALS/15Movements.pdf in which he suggests that a _profound shift in values among an aware and engaged citizenry_ – a global citizens movement – is the necessary driver of a great transition, and implies that a global crisis could be a key element in crystallizing the many civil society efforts around the globe into such a movement.
But is there another way?
Can efforts aimed at ecological restoration, poverty reduction, and economic justice lead to transformative change without a global crisis?
I believe it is far more likely that some form of global crisis – whether an abrupt manifestation of climate change, economic disruption around peak oil and declining availability of fossil fuels, expanding armed conflict, or increased social unrest due to growing global inequalities – will be necessary before we identify ourselves as global citizens and act as if humanity and the Earth’s collective fate requires a great transition.
While there are many potential crises looming (and we do not need to agree on which is the most likely), do others share the view that global crisis will be a key driver of a great transition?
Or … are there alternative theories of change that you find more compelling?
_James Goldstein is a Senior Fellow at Tellus Institute where he directs the Sustainable Communities Program. He has over 20 years of experience in the assessment of environmental problems and policies, with a particular emphasis on pollution prevention, solid waste management, green planning, and watershed protection. Current projects include developing sustainability scenarios for the Boston metropolitan area._
Does this mean like if something really bad happens like the bird flu? And then everybody in the world suddenly gets along better after that? Wow. I hope it doesn’t come to that!
What if everybody is too poor or something after that to be able to get along? Seems like it could go the other way, too. It could be a really big problem all around the world, and then people would have a hard time getting back on their feet, much less all getting along and making the world better.
I don’t believe global crisis will prompt any sort of change. Has anything changed since Katrina or September 11th?
We need a common vision of unity. I have been working on educational solutions for 20 years, concerning the interconnections of the planet this work is called Secrets of Living Systems. My web site but needs some pages removed to be corrected and updated. My work is now completely science based and secular and fits into the standards of science of the United States and fourty countries. I will be ready to launch in January of 07. Due to technological advances Secrets of living systems is going to be a science curriculum, book and game that every class can afford. Current information is essential to education of people of all ages.
Thank you Ereana Reil
In a word: balderdash. This is a bunch of words strung together to validate someone’s paycheck. It says nothing. It does, however allude to the utopia waiting just beyond the veil of socialism.
There is no common human goal. There is no way to predict the unknown future. We can, however, look at history and see what results from certain behaviors.
If a crisis eventuates that is sufficient to destroy the western way of life, you can bet your money (now worthless) on asolute chaos. The strong will dominate the weak and the charismatic will run the show. Possessions will be taken by them that can. There will be no one to cry to. Human nature will be unleashed. Hungry frightened humans have no noble side. They are interested only in survival and self perpetualtion.
Our founding fathers tried to create a rule of law. There is not much left of ot but there is some. When it goes, pandemonium will result.
Interesting conversation. I suspect that Mr. Goldstein is, at heart, a Malthusian who believes that the crisis he envisions may be in some way a necessary part of nature. Or he may simply be frustrated that things are not changing as quickly as he would like, and is slowly sinking into a personal despair that should not be mistaken for sound science.
Frankly, I think Mr, Napier hits some nails on the head. I especially agree with him that this world calamity would probably do nothing to change human nature. Why should it? I beleive only evolution of the mind, or perhaps the mind and soul, if there is one, can do that
We have to do something but discussion. Are we waiting the time when nothing is possible. Too much. Let’s analyse what we’ve done and what is to be done.
Ed said … world calamity would probably do nothing to change human nature. Why should it? I believe only evolution of the mind, or perhaps the mind and soul, if there is one, can do that.
Isn’t that what James Goldstein is asking? Isn’t he asking what – besides calamity – could cause an evolution of the mind and soul in order to create a better world?
Well, very interesting topic. I personally have never thought that a global crisis would really be required to do the correct things to insure our future, but this system does seem to need a whack with a two by four to “get it.”
What has needed to be done all along has been evident to me at least from the age of 10 when I found out about the population explosion in the 5th grade. We’ve always known crisis would be upon us someday, and I truly think all of us have known all along that things like favoring the automobile industry over mass transportation were leading us to eventual disaster.
To make the right decisions all along, it would have taken only a sense of responsibility and of the future, along with ethics and a good dose of integrity.
As far as a real and totally encompassing global crisis, and concerning the question of the necessary now for us to make the changes, I would argue that we ALREADY ARE IN GLOBAL CRISIS, and that instead of an earth shattering and sweeping environmental or natural disaster of a global and paralytic kind, it is the ethical/economic/responsibility crisis that might shift us to a new paradigm, especially considering that a large scale physical disaster may in fact signal that it is already too late to make the changes necessary.
The only way to enact change in any environment is to inflict a bit of punishment and suffering. Sadly to say that seems to be the only way humanity learns. Everything that has caused change was caused by just a dash of pain or a sprinkle of suffering. It takes hardship to push our “lazy” humanity into action, and like any parent knows, you may catch more bees with honey than with vinegar, but the “bee” remembers the vinegar longer than the honey. When a road is dangerous it takes several possibly fatal accidents to get people to make the road safer. When it takes two planes crashing into two buildings razing them to the ground killing thousands to bring about safer flying conditions and higher standards of safety for our borders and flight regulations it begs to ponder, what motivates human change… its suffering and loss that drives us to pursue new ways of living. As long as we are “comfortable” with how things are going we will do no better.
Some people can wrap their minds around a greater purpose and cause to enact change in themselves and other around them, but in general the population as a whole is lost to be tormented into change. Very few leaders changed the world and they did it in a time of slow to no communication, no education, and no real hope. Now we are only marginally better than we used to be. Our government still strives to keep the population stupid by denying and hampering the development of education and the sharing of human knowledge. The government still kills off its subjects by providing substandard medical care and allowing for laziness to be rewarded with its programs that only help to foster inactivity and sloth. I could go on and on pointing the “finger” at others mistakes, but the truth of it is; if we are going to change it has to be our choice. No one can make people change, all they can do is guide them to that change. This country and all countries lack proper guidance without bias and motive. If we are to make change without a global crisis there has to be a leader for all to follow with the purpose of bettering us as a whole, not as select groups. The odds of this happening are slim to none, but one can hope for a future without suffering and pain. I choose to work hard and better myself. I choose to live the life I am proud of and know is bettering society. I help, I love, I hope, I work.
“Without a vision, the people will perish,” Isaiah (9 v 2)—what is our basis for hope as we take a sober look that mounting challenges we face?
Climate disruption, global terror networks, peak oil, ecosystem collapse, over-population and epidemics, and global financial instability all appear to be serious threats. Many good people see only disaster ahead when they contemplate our future.
A crisis need not be equated with apocalypse and total collapse of civilization. Let’s remember that at the turn of the last century there was the crisis of World War I, a major flu epidemic, and then crisis of the Great Depression flowing into the life or death struggle against Fascism in World War II. Society survived, after great suffering and loss of life.
Before the catastrophe of Katrina, Global Warming was a taboo subject. It took a major crisis to bring an issue scientists have been warning about for decades to the attention of mainstream media and the American populace. It is still not getting enough attention.
The critical question is what are we doing to prepare ahead of time for a global crisis? As Paul Raskin writes in the paper World Lines: Pathways, Pivots and the Global Future, without a vision of hope and the infrastructure of an incipient social movement, crisis could lead to deeper resignation and authoritarian solutions as people turn to “strong leaders” out of desperation.
Fear without hope is not a powerful basis for social change. A compelling vision of the world we want to create is needed if we are to meet any impending global crisis and move beyond it to a better world. The Great Transition Today, a 15 page essay, offers a hopeful vision of the world we might create (and the following papers in the GTI Paper Series help unpack that vision and offer clues to how we might get there).
Dear Members of the Earth & Sky Community,
The array of views in this single open discussion concerning “another world,” a world to come, is so encouraging. Thanks to each of you for not committing the most ignoble lie, the one that results from not telling the truth as you see it or from refusing to share the fruits of science which you hold and which could help humanity save life as we know it on Earth.
Always,
Steve
By the way … I see all that is happening right now like a gigantic Y2K – – the brutal grabbing and storing up of monies and materials, resources and irreplaceable creations – – before EVERYONE is going to have to participate in sustaining this world in an adequate manner. Greed is going to have to stop, but at the moment it is everyone for themselves. Sort of a madness before the hurricane, the storm, the deluge – – – the much anticipated crisis which, like Y2K, though reasonably predicted and fearfully anticipated, may not ever come.
We are in the middle of the crisis right this very minute, and it is likely to get worse before it gets better, but some of us, depending on what we are focusing on, may not suffer very much during the most critical times.
I do very much believe we are in serious if not already critical condition, and it is global, but just as your fingernails still grow and your heart still beats even when you are in a coma, some very lucky and few of us (that would be we), may not be devastated personally before we wake up.
Of course, the alternative is that we might never wake up if we do not get the needed treatment. It remains to be seen, does it not?
However, I do think there are those emerging who (and that also would be we) are quite energetically focusing our hearts, minds, and creativity on forming these so-called citizens groups, because I believe a certain percentage of us do and always will care desperately and passionately for the whole world. I consider those at Earth & Sky to be in that group and of course I self-appoint myself to that category, as clumsy or ineffective as my attempts to help may be.
I believe that some form of personal crisis is necessary for most human beings (at least those in our achievement oriented, materialistic economies) to change core elements of their lifestyle. If this were not so then everyone would eat healthy diets, exercise regularly, and spend quality time with their children. We seem to need the heart attack, the broken marriage or the estranged children before we make significant change.
Many of us do not make positive transformations even after decades of fighting with our neighbours.
I would be delighted to be proven wrong on climate change but Jared Diamond in his book “Collapse” suggests that other sophisticated societies have often failed to change how they do things even in the face of social extinction. It appears that we humans do not have a great track record in making transformations in a timely manner.
For a positive view of how the future may look after years of global climate change crises see: http://www.petersaul.com.au/HappyAust2025scenario.pdf
I once heard it said that the job of the great leader was to confront those he/she led with a symbolic crisis so that change was initiated ahead of the real thing. Yet, our leaders seem to think that it is political suicide to give the people a fright. That could be the death of many of us.
Peter
The leaders of the predominant culture appear to be saying that they know the best way for everyone else on the planet to live. At least that is what I have been hearing everywhere from the masters of the universe. Through a pervasive mass media they tell us that the constant, maximal and accelerating expansion of business-as-usual on Earth is the only game in town. We are to learn the rules of this game and play like hell, but understand that they make up the rules as we go along.
Please do not ask, “For whose benefit are these very carefully fashioned rules, always presented in tomes of small print, legislated?” Please, please do not suggest that the rules they promulgate are not based upon fair play, equity, democratic principles, holy precepts and universal values. Under no circumstances, follow the money or notice the enlarging size of the people who possess almost all of the world’s wealth.
We are to overlook the examples of the “n’er-do-wells” who end up with millions of dollars in their bank accounts and become our leaders: the ones who seem unable to find money anywhere to pay a sensible minimum wage to people for many honest and hard hours of labor, year after year.
The most sublime and ironic moment in my life occurred when it became clear that only one thing is necessary in order to save the world as we know it; that there are many ways to will this one thing.
The great peoples of faith will embrace the gift of science; the wondrous people of the sciences will find God.
As for the politicians: the ones who parse words, say they do not lie, but will not tell the truth; the economists: the ones who manage the world economy as a patently unsustainable pyramid scheme; and the demographers: the ones who refuse every opportunity to examine, much less refute, good scientific data of human population dynamics and the human overpopulation of Earth,
somehow, i found reading this posting by james goldstein dispiriting. is this what we have to look forwards to in the future? small solutions to big problems? we are facing a world in which several billion people do not have enough to eat and we are facing an economic crisis of huge proportions which is not mentioned in the tellus report. and yet we have the answer to these problems. the human species is at the threshold of infitity: near infinite population growth and energy and material consumption in at first a solar system economy and then an interstellar economy in which resources are not finite. let me backtrack a bit to 20,000 years ago when planet earth had a population of perhaps several million cave dwellers utilizing 5,000 kilocalories per person per day in a hunting, gathering and fishing economy using nets (the women did this) and their one energy source, fire. about 10,000 years ago farming was invented and the population shot up 13 fold because of the capture of solar energy by the cultivation of grains, the only viable form of solar energy. then mettallurgy, roads, irrigation, the wheel, weaving, ships, the science of astronomy were invented and developed and we approach the renaissance with 700 million people utilizing about 70,000 kilocalories daily per person on average. if we plot this on a curve we notice that soon after the renaissance the curve becomes exponential when the steam engine, the internal combustion engine, the factory system, electricity and then fission is developed bringing us to 6.2 billion people utilizing 300, 000 kilocalories per person per day. it is not as if we had a choice to progress or not. not doing so would lead to the self-destruction of not only the human species but the environment which, as i should explain in another posting, is intimately tied to agricultural, mining and industrial activity. if you were to snap your fingers and every human being was gone from the face of the earth would the biosphere a. get better b. remain the same c.self destruct?
There’s definitely been some very gloomy talk in this post.
I’d like to go back to something that Peter Saul said: … Jared Diamond in his book “Collapse” suggests that other sophisticated societies have often failed to change how they do things even in the face of social extinction. It appears that we humans do not have a great track record in making transformations in a timely manner.
I respectfully disagree.
In fact, we humans DO have a great track record in making transformations in a timely manner. We must … or we would not be here.
I believe in human intelligence, adaptability, creativity, cooperativeness … I believe we can make the necessary shifts. Whether we can do that without a global crisis – the topic of this post – I don’t know.
Deborah
if you believe in human intelligence, adaptability, creativity and cooperativenss, i would like to send you a playful attempt to determine the future of humanity masquerading as a demonstration that extra-terrestrials have never visited the earth masquerading as a demonstation of the socratic method of critical thinking. it was published in a science magazine and it is only 5 pages long. what is earth & sky’s snail mail address?
Julian, tell me the title, and I’ll bet I can find it online and link to here … then we can all read it.
Deborah
this is amazing deborah, you respond right away! The title is “extra-terrestrials have never visited the earth: a socratic narrative.” it appeared in the summer 1998 issue of 21st century science and technology magazine. i have not found it on line but i am a computer idiot (what my teenage son calls me). good luck.
did you manage to find the article on line? i am eager to know what you and fellow commentators think about it.
Hello Julian,
I did find a link to the home page of 21st Century Science and Technology. Their about page suggests that this magazine is a successor to an earlier magazine called Fusion. It looks as if their prime concern is nuclear energy.
Your article – Extra-Terrestrials Have Never Visited the Earth by Julian Grajewski – is not available online.
But the summer 1998 issue containing that article has a table of contents here., and people can purchase the article here.
We’ll check it out! But it might take awhile to arrive.
Thank you, Julian.
Deborah
so i am not a total computer idiot then when i can not find my own article? if you want to do it quicker, send me a snail mail address and i will mail you the article. the article will amaze you by pointing out an aspect of humanity that most people do not suspect. thanks again for your efforts.
I believe that one of the most prominent hindrances to human evolution right now is religion. Virtually every religion now in existence has an apocalyptic side to it, especially the western religions. That means that they see an eventual collapse of this present world and a coming “savior” who will usher in a new age and the eventual culmination of paradise. So, there is no motivation to save this planet and all the believers are supposed to do is sit around and wait for the coming Christ in the case of Christians or the Messiah in the case of Jews or simply the new age of paradise in the case of Muslims.
Therefore, the first thing that needs to happen, in my opinion, is the elimination of religion and the realization that we alone are responsible for our future. If we don’t do something soon we will plunge the entire human race into oblivion and no one will be around to wonder what happened to us. That should be enough to prompt us to immediate action which would include reaching out to every other country in the world. We need to do it together or it simply won’t get done.
Science, logic and reason will certainly do more for our salvation than myth and superstition. So, let’s get started. Count me in. Where do I sign?
Sincerely, (I really mean it)
Keith Cantrell
Dear Keith Cantrell,
Wonderful comments. Thank you for each one.
It remains at least my hope that people of the faiths and the peoples of the sciences can find common ground. Just for me, the elimination of religions is not a meaningful or realistic alternative, although I certainly understand your expressed belief for wanting to get rid of religion.
Let me ask a question.
IF i BELIEVE THAT i AM ONE OF THE “CHOSEN” PEOPLE AND, THEREBY, GUARANTEED ETERNAL LIFE AS A RESULT OF DOING THE WORK my RELIGION TELLS me TO DO, FOR GOOD OR ILL, THEN WHY WOULD i HAVE A CONCERN FOR, MUCH LESS A COMMITMENT TO, PRESERVING THE EARTH AND LIFE AS WE KNOW IT HERE AND NOW?
Thanks, Keith, for giving us an opportunity to speak openly about rarely expressed ideas.
Steve
If it pleases you, the question posed just above is asked another way.
IS my UNADULTERATED DRIVE FOR THE SEEMINGLY INDISPENSABLE ACQUISITION OF AN ABSOLUTE ASSURANCE OF my EVERLASTING LIFE ANATHEMA TO LIFE AS WE KNOW IT ON EARTH AMD TO WHATSOEVER EXISTS HERE AND NOW?
If i AM A MASTER OF THE UNIVERSE, THEN i AM one WHO SAYS LITTLE AND DOES LESS EXCEPT ADAMANTLY INSIST UPON THE ENDLESS PURSUIT OF THE be all and end all.
PERHAPS ANOTHER WAY OF POSING THE QUESTION ABOVE IS THIS: WHAT IS THE “BE-ALL” OF WHICH THE MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE ARE IN SUCH HOT PURSUIT, WHAT DOES “END-ALL” MEAN, AND WHY DO THE MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE HAVE TO MOVE SO FAST TOWARD THEIR GOAL…..AND NOT ALLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH TO BE LIMITED JUST A BIT?
IF ONLY i HAD NOT BEEN TOLD THAT i WAS ADDICTED TO OIL, THEN i WOULD NOT HAVE ASKED THE OBVIOUS QUESTIONS, “WHO ARE my DEALERS? WHY THE LOCK STEP INSISTENCE UPON THE MAINTENANCE OF SUCH A WIDESPREAD AND DANGEROUS ADDICTION?”
IF ONLY i HAD NOT BEEN TOLD THAT THE PERPETUATION OF THE ‘ONLY GAME IN TOWN’ IS ALL THAT REALLY MATTERS; IF ONLY THE HEALTH OF my PORTFOLIO WOULD NOT SUFFER; THEN PERHAPS i COULD SPEAK THESE WORDS: simply begin to end the unregulated burning of fossil fuels. give humanity a chance to save the earth as we know it and want it for our children from those who are addicted…like me.
I don’t think that punishment or suffering will make us better as we all experience this quite often.
Everything is choice. What do I choose moment by moment? Does it add to the chaos or does it calm it down?
If I meditate daily and am kind, generous and helpful to those I meet, then I am responsible for making the world a better place. What greater cure is there than a clear conscience?
It’s an interesting perspective that punishment and suffering are already with us. Several of you have said that. So James’ original question was … will we need some sort of global crisis to carry us into a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and a healthy planet? And some of you seem to be saying we are in that crisis now.
And now Elaine is suggesting kindness, helpfulness, to those we meet … surely features of a more enlightened future.
So if it’s true that the suffering is with us now … so are the seeds of kindness and helpfulness toward each other.
If there were some kind of global crisis, maybe everybody would pull together.
Dear Ruby,
Human beings are an astoundingly intelligent species and in possession of the gift of science. Can you think of any reason not to use that intelligence, not to discuss the best available evidence of science, not to protect biodiversity from extinction and the environment from degradation, not to preserve natural resources from irreparable dissipation and the Earth from destruction?
Somehow, the idea of passively and silently waiting for a global crisis to take charge of circumstances for which humankind appears directly responsible seems not quite right………an unacceptable abrogation of the duties of a supremely gifted species.
Always,
Steve
The deafening silence; the utter passivity; the cool, knowing demeanor of experts at scientific meetings; the big grins, noticeable swagger and expressed certainty of the overseeing masters of the universe who manage what they call the ‘only game in town’, all this haunts me now. This picture reminds me of an erstwhile ‘ship of fools’ and gives rise to a question of the Earth & Sky community.
“IS THE HUMAN SPECIES OF SPACESHIP EARTH BEING DIRECTED DOWN A PRIMROSE PATH BY ‘MASTER TRICKSTERS’ PLAYING THE PART OF POWERBROKERS OF A GLOBAL GREED MACHINE…….A MAN-MADE EDIFICE THAT CAN ALSO BE DESCRIBED with the words PREDOMINANT POLITICAL ECONOMY, ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION and GIGANTIC BUSINESS PYRAMID SCHEME?”